Experimental test of the probability density function of true value of Poisson distribution parameter by single observation of number of events

The empirical probability density function for the conditional distribution of the true value of Poisson distribution parameter on one measurement is constructed by computer experiment. The analysis of the obtained distributions confirms that these distributions are gamma-distributions.Comment: presented in the IX International Workshop on Advanced Computing and Analysis Techniques in Physics Research (ACAT'03), KEK, Tsukuba, Japan, December 1-5, 200

The probability of making a correct decision in hypotheses testing as estimator of quality of planned experiments

In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new phenomenon in Nature. The probability of making a correct decision in hypotheses testing is proposed as estimator of quality of planned experiments. This estimator allows to take into account systematics and statistical uncertainties in determination of signal and background rates.Comment: 6 pages (1 LaTeX file), 4 eps files (figures), improved the proof of good properties of the estimato

Uncertainties and Discovery Potential in Planned Experiments

We describe a method for estimation of the discovery potential on new physics in planned experiments. The effective significance of signal for given probability of observation is proposed for planned experiments instead of the usual significances S_1 = n_s/sqrt{n_b} and S_2 = n_s/sqrt{n_s+n_b}, where n_s and n_b are the average numbers of signal and background events. Application of the test of equal-probability allows to estimate the exclusion limits on new physics. We also estimate the influence of systematic uncertainty related to nonexact knowledge of signal and background cross sections on the discovery probability of new physics in planned experiments. An account of such systematics is very essential in the search for supersymmetry at LHC.Comment: 30 pages (1 LaTeX file), 14 eps files (figures), Talk presented by S.I.Bityukov at the Advanced Statistical Techniques in Particle Physics, March 18-22, 2002, Durham, U

The LHC (CMS) Discovery Potential for Models with Effective Supersymmetry and Nonuniversal Gaugino Masses

We investigate squark and gluino pair production at LHC (CMS) with subsequent decays into quarks, leptons and LSP in models with effective supersymmetry where third generation of squarks is relatively light while the first two generations of squarks are heavy. We consider the general case of nonuniversal gaugino masses. Visibility of signal by an excess over SM background in (n \geq 2)jets + (m \geq 0)leptons + E^{miss}_T events depends rather strongly on the relation between LSP, second neutralino, gluino and squark masses and it decreases with the increase of LSP mass. We find that for relatively heavy gluino it is very difficult to detect SUSY signal even for light 3^{rd} generation squarks (m_{\tilde q_3}\le 1 TeV) if the LSP mass is closed to the 3^{rd} generation squark mass.Comment: 1 latex (35 pages), 4 eps (figures) file

Signatures of gaugino mass non-universality in cascade Higgs production at the LHC

Supersymmetric cascades, involving charginos and neutralinos at various stages, contribute in a significant way to Higgs production at the LHC. We explore the nature of such cascades, completely relaxing the universality of the gaugino masses. It is found that the deviation from the scenario with universal gaugino masses would be reflected in the relative production rates for the lightest Higgs and the charged Higgses, two characteristic particles of an extended Higgs sector.Comment: 14 pages, 22 figure