Very extreme seasonal precipitation in the NARCCAP ensemble: model performance and projections

Seasonal extreme daily precipitation is analyzed in the ensemble of NARCAPP regional climate models. Significant variation in these models' abilities to reproduce observed precipitation extremes over the contiguous United States is found. Model performance metrics are introduced to characterize overall biases, seasonality, spatial extent and the shape of the precipitation distribution. Comparison of the models to gridded observations that include an elevation correction is found to be better than to gridded observations without this correction. A complicated model weighting scheme based on model performance in simulating observations is found to cause significant improvements in ensemble mean skill only if some of the models are poorly performing outliers. The effect of lateral boundary conditions are explored by comparing the integrations driven by reanalysis to those driven by global climate models. Projected mid-century future changes in seasonal precipitation means and extremes are presented and discussions of the sources of uncertainty and the mechanisms causing these changes are presented. © 2012 The Author(s)

The impacts of climate change on the winter water cycle of the western Himalaya

Some 180 million people depend on the Indus River as a key water resource, fed largely by precipitation falling over the western Himalaya. However, the projected response of western Himalayan precipitation to climate change is currently not well constrained: CMIP5 GCMs project a reduced frequency and vorticity of synoptic-scale systems impacting the area, but such systems would exist in a considerably moister atmosphere. In this study, a convection-permitting (4 km horizontal resolution) setup of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to examine 40 cases of these synoptic-scale systems, known as western disturbances (WDs), as they interact with the western Himalaya. In addition to a present-day control run, three experiments are performed by perturbing the boundary and initial conditions to reflect pre-industrial, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 background climates respectively. It is found that in spite of the weakening intensity of WDs, net precipitation associated with them in future climate scenarios increases significantly; conversely there is no net change in precipitation between the pre-industrial and control experiments despite a significant conversion of snowfall in the pre-industrial experiment to rainfall in the control experiment, consistent with the changes seen in historical observations. This shift from snowfall to rainfall has profound consequences on water resource management in the Indus Valley, where irrigation is dependent on spring meltwater. Flux decomposition shows that the increase in future precipitation follows directly from the projected moistening of the tropical atmosphere (which increases the moisture flux incident on the western Himalaya by 28%) overpowering the weakened dynamics (which decreases it by 20%). Changes to extreme rainfall events are also examined: it is found that such events may increase significantly in frequency in both future scenarios examined. Two-hour maxima rainfall events that currently occur in 1-in-8 WDs are projected to increase tenfold in frequency in the RCP8.5 scenario; more prolonged (one-week maxima) events are projected to increase fiftyfold

Expert consensus document:Cholangiocarcinoma: current knowledge and future perspectives consensus statement from the European Network for the Study of Cholangiocarcinoma (ENS-CCA)

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a heterogeneous group of malignancies with features of biliary tract differentiation. CCA is the second most common primary liver tumour and the incidence is increasing worldwide. CCA has high mortality owing to its aggressiveness, late diagnosis and refractory nature. In May 2015, the "European Network for the Study of Cholangiocarcinoma" (ENS-CCA: www.enscca.org or www.cholangiocarcinoma.eu) was created to promote and boost international research collaboration on the study of CCA at basic, translational and clinical level. In this Consensus Statement, we aim to provide valuable information on classifications, pathological features, risk factors, cells of origin, genetic and epigenetic modifications and current therapies available for this cancer. Moreover, future directions on basic and clinical investigations and plans for the ENS-CCA are highlighted

Energy Transfer Analysis of Turbulent Plane Couette Flow

. An energy transfer analysis of turbulent plane Couette flow is performed. It is found that nonlinear interaction between the [0; \Sigma1] modes is principally responsible for maintaining the mean streamwise turbulent velocity profile. The [0; \Sigma1] modes extract energy from the laminar flow by linear non-modal growth mechanisms and transfer it directly to the mean flow mode. The connection of this work to linear/nonlinear models of transition is discussed. 1 Introduction In recent work a model for maintenance of turbulence in wall-bounded flows has been proposed [11,15]. It is argued that the backbone of the turbulent state is a quasi-periodic, self-sustaining cycle consisting of streak generation by linear advection, streak breakdown by a spanwise-inflectional instability, and vortex regeneration by nonlinear interaction of the products of the streak breakdown. This work was carried out by direct simulation of turbulent flow by reducing the size of the computational box to a mi..

Compounds from multilayer plastic bags cause reproductive failures in artificial insemination

High levels of reproductive failure were detected in some Spanish sow farms in the Spring of 2010. Regular returns to estrus and variable reductions in litter size were observed. The problem started suddenly and did not appear to be related to the quality of the ejaculates, disease, alterations of body condition or any other apparent reasons. Subsequent studies determined that the problem was the origin of the plastic bags used for semen storage. Chemical analysis of the suspicious bags identified unexpected compounds such as BADGE, a cyclic lactone and an unknown phthalate that leached into the semen at concentrations of 0.2 to 2.5 mg/L. Spermatozoa preserved in these bags passed all of the routine quality control tests, and no differences were observed between storage in the control and suspicious bags (p > 0.05). In vitro fecundation tests and endocrine profiler panel analysis (EPP) did not show any alterations, whereas the in vivo tests confirmed the described failure. This is the first described relationship between reproductive failure and toxic compounds released from plastic bags