Can REDD+ reconcile local priorities and needs with global mitigation benefits? lessons from Angai Forest, Tanzania

The scope of the reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) mechanism has broadened REDD+ to accommodate different country interests such as natural forests, protected areas, as well as forests under community-based management. In Tanzania the REDD+ mechanism is still under development and pilot projects are at an early stage. In this paper, we seek to understand how local priorities and needs could be met in REDD+ implementation and how these expectations match with global mitigation benefits. We examine the local priorities and needs in the use of land and forest resources in the Angai Villages Land Forest Reserve (AVLFR) in the Liwale District of Lindi Region in Tanzania. Primary data was collected in two villages, Mihumo and Lilombe, using semistructured key informant interviews and participatory rural appraisal methods. In addition, the key informant interviews were conducted with other village, district, and national level actors, as well as international donors. Findings show that in the two communities REDD+ is seen as something new and is generating new expectations among communities. However, the Angai villagers highlight three key priorities that have yet to be integrated into the design of REDD+: water scarcity, rural development, and food security. At the local level improved forest governance and sustainable management of forest resources have been identified as one way to achieve livelihood diversification. Although the national goals of REDD+ include poverty reduction, these goals are not necessarily conducive to the goals of these communities. There exist both structural and cultural limits to the ability of the Angai villages to implement these goals and to improve forestry governance. Given the vulnerability to current and future climate variability and change it will be important to consider how the AVLFR will be managed and for whose benefit

`Oumuamua as a messenger from the Local Association

7 pages, one table, two figures, accepted for publication by ApJL. © 2018. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.With a hyperbolic trajectory around the Sun, 'Oumuamua is the first confirmed interstellar object. However, its origin is poorly known. By simulating the orbits of 0.23 million local stars, we find 109 encounters with periastron less than 5 pc. 'Oumuamua's low peculiar velocity is suggestive of its origin from a young stellar association with similar velocity. In particular, we find that 'Oumuamua would have had slow encounters with at least five young stars belonging to the Local Association, thus suggesting these as plausible sites for formation and ejection. In addition to an extremely elongated shape, the available observational data for 'Oumuamua indicates a red color, suggestive of a potentially organic-rich and activity-free surface. These characteristics seem consistent with formation through energetic collisions between planets and debris objects in the middle part of a young stellar system. We estimate an abundance of at least 6.0 × 10 -3 au -3 for such interstellar objects with mean diameter larger than 100 m and find that it is likely that most of them will be ejected into the Galactic halo. Our Bayesian analysis of the available light curves indicates a rotation period of 6.96 +1.45 -0.39, which is consistent with the estimation by Meech et al. and shorter than those in other literature. The codes and results are available on GitHub (https://github.com/phillippro/Oumuamua).Peer reviewe

Near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon. Characterization of its orbit, spin state, and thermophysical parameters

The near-Earth asteroid (3200) Phaethon is an intriguing object: its perihelion is at only 0.14 au and is associated with the Geminid meteor stream. We aim to use all available disk-integrated optical data to derive a reliable convex shape model of Phaethon. By interpreting the available space- and ground-based thermal infrared data and Spitzer spectra using a thermophysical model, we also aim to further constrain its size, thermal inertia, and visible geometric albedo. We applied the convex inversion method to the new optical data obtained by six instruments and to previous observations. The convex shape model was then used as input for the thermophysical modeling. We also studied the long-term stability of Phaethon's orbit and spin axis with a numerical orbital and rotation-state integrator. We present a new convex shape model and rotational state of Phaethon: a sidereal rotation period of 3.603958(2) h and ecliptic coordinates of the preferred pole orientation of (319$^{\circ}$, $-$39$^{\circ}$) with a 5$^{\circ}$ uncertainty. Moreover, we derive its size ($D$=5.1$\pm$0.2 km), thermal inertia ($\Gamma$=600$\pm$200 J m$^{-2}$ s$^{-1/2}$ K$^{-1}$), geometric visible albedo ($p_{\mathrm{V}}$=0.122$\pm$0.008), and estimate the macroscopic surface roughness. We also find that the Sun illumination at the perihelion passage during the past several thousand years is not connected to a specific area on the surface, which implies non-preferential heating.Comment: Astronomy and Astrophysics. In pres

Towards Efficient Detection of Small Near-Earth Asteroids Using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF)

We describe ZStreak, a semi-real-time pipeline specialized in detecting small, fast-moving near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) that is currently operating on the data from the newly-commissioned Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) survey. Based on a prototype originally developed by Waszczak et al. (2017) for the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), the predecessor of ZTF, ZStreak features an improved machine-learning model that can cope with the $10\times$ data rate increment between PTF and ZTF. Since its first discovery on 2018 February 5 (2018 CL), ZTF/ZStreak has discovered $45$ confirmed new NEAs over a total of 232 observable nights until 2018 December 31. Most of the discoveries are small NEAs, with diameters less than $\sim100$ m. By analyzing the discovery circumstances, we find that objects having the first to last detection time interval under 2 hr are at risk of being lost. We will further improve real-time follow-up capabilities, and work on suppressing false positives using deep learning.Comment: PASP in pres

A Human Development Framework for CO2 Reductions

Although developing countries are called to participate in CO2 emission reduction efforts to avoid dangerous climate change, the implications of proposed reduction schemes in human development standards of developing countries remain a matter of debate. We show the existence of a positive and time-dependent correlation between the Human Development Index (HDI) and per capita CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. Employing this empirical relation, extrapolating the HDI, and using three population scenarios, the cumulative CO2 emissions necessary for developing countries to achieve particular HDI thresholds are assessed following a Development As Usual approach (DAU). If current demographic and development trends are maintained, we estimate that by 2050 around 85% of the world's population will live in countries with high HDI (above 0.8). In particular, 300Gt of cumulative CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2050 are estimated to be necessary for the development of 104 developing countries in the year 2000. This value represents between 20% to 30% of previously calculated CO2 budgets limiting global warming to 2{\deg}C. These constraints and results are incorporated into a CO2 reduction framework involving four domains of climate action for individual countries. The framework reserves a fair emission path for developing countries to proceed with their development by indexing country-dependent reduction rates proportional to the HDI in order to preserve the 2{\deg}C target after a particular development threshold is reached. Under this approach, global cumulative emissions by 2050 are estimated to range from 850 up to 1100Gt of CO2. These values are within the uncertainty range of emissions to limit global temperatures to 2{\deg}C.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

A new model of cosmogenic production of radiocarbon 14C in the atmosphere

We present the results of full new calculation of radiocarbon 14C production in the Earth atmosphere, using a numerical Monte-Carlo model. We provide, for the first time, a tabulated 14C yield function for the energy of primary cosmic ray particles ranging from 0.1 to 1000 GeV/nucleon. We have calculated the global production rate of 14C, which is 1.64 and 1.88 atoms/cm2/s for the modern time and for the pre-industrial epoch, respectively. This is close to the values obtained from the carbon cycle reservoir inventory. We argue that earlier models overestimated the global 14C production rate because of outdated spectra of cosmic ray heavier nuclei. The mean contribution of solar energetic particles to the global 14C is calculated as about 0.25% for the modern epoch. Our model provides a new tool to calculate the 14C production in the Earth's atmosphere, which can be applied, e.g., to reconstructions of solar activity in the past.Comment: Published in EPSL, 337, 114, 201

1.3 mm Wavelength VLBI of Sagittarius A*: Detection of Time-Variable Emission on Event Horizon Scales

Sagittarius A*, the ~4 x 10^6 solar mass black hole candidate at the Galactic Center, can be studied on Schwarzschild radius scales with (sub)millimeter wavelength Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). We report on 1.3 mm wavelength observations of Sgr A* using a VLBI array consisting of the JCMT on Mauna Kea, the ARO/SMT on Mt. Graham in Arizona, and two telescopes of the CARMA array at Cedar Flat in California. Both Sgr A* and the quasar calibrator 1924-292 were observed over three consecutive nights, and both sources were clearly detected on all baselines. For the first time, we are able to extract 1.3 mm VLBI interferometer phase information on Sgr A* through measurement of closure phase on the triangle of baselines. On the third night of observing, the correlated flux density of Sgr A* on all VLBI baselines increased relative to the first two nights, providing strong evidence for time-variable change on scales of a few Schwarzschild radii. These results suggest that future VLBI observations with greater sensitivity and additional baselines will play a valuable role in determining the structure of emission near the event horizon of Sgr A*.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to ApJ

Spin states of asteroids in the Eos collisional family

Eos family was created during a catastrophic impact about 1.3 Gyr ago. Rotation states of individual family members contain information about the history of the whole population. We aim to increase the number of asteroid shape models and rotation states within the Eos collision family, as well as to revise previously published shape models from the literature. Such results can be used to constrain theoretical collisional and evolution models of the family, or to estimate other physical parameters by a thermophysical modeling of the thermal infrared data. We use all available disk-integrated optical data (i.e., classical dense-in-time photometry obtained from public databases and through a large collaboration network as well as sparse-in-time individual measurements from a few sky surveys) as input for the convex inversion method, and derive 3D shape models of asteroids together with their rotation periods and orientations of rotation axes. We present updated shape models for 15 asteroids and new shape model determinations for 16 asteroids. Together with the already published models from the publicly available DAMIT database, we compiled a sample of 56 Eos family members with known shape models that we used in our analysis of physical properties within the family. Rotation states of asteroids smaller than ~20 km are heavily influenced by the YORP effect, whilst the large objects more or less retained their rotation state properties since the family creation. Moreover, we also present a shape model and bulk density of asteroid (423) Diotima, an interloper in the Eos family, based on the disk-resolved data obtained by the Near InfraRed Camera (Nirc2) mounted on the W.M. Keck II telescope.Comment: Accepted for publication in ICARUS Special Issue - Asteroids: Origin, Evolution & Characterizatio