The European Way Out of Recessions

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.Threshold autoregression, bounce-back effects, asymmetric business cycles. JEL classification: E32, C22.

The European way out of recession

This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.Threshold autoregression, bounce-back effects, asymmetric business cycles.

Using Documentaries in Teaching Arabic Poetry

The easy access to new technologies had transformed language teaching and learning in more ways than we can count it. Watching documentaries can keep students engaged and motivated. Film documentaries are highly authentic materials that can be an excellent learning tool in Arabic language learning classes. Teaching Arabic literature, poetry in particular, was always a great challenge to students and teachers. It requires a competency on a top of competency (Saussy 2005, 19). Arabic poetry is full of words and vocabulary that is not used in Modern Written Arabic. It is the aim of this study to integrate documentary films in teaching Arabic poetry to Arabic learners, and to develop appropriate approach to Arabic poetry. This pilot study is an attempt to see how Arabic learners benefits from using one documentary series called On the Footsteps of the Arabs “على خطى العرب” to learn about Arabic poetry . The TV programeme, produced by Al Arabiya television channel and presented by Eid Al-Yahya. The overall aim of this study was to introduce Arabic poetry through an authentic visual context, where students can have a full visual context to help them grasp the cultural references, styles, an content of Arabic poetry

What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-switching models ? A Monte Carlo study.

This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a superior in-sample fit relative to linear models, the gain in prediction remains small. We confirm this result using simulated data for a wide range of specifications. In order to explain this poor performance, we use a forecasting error decomposition. We identify four components and derive their analytical expressions in different MS specifications. The relative contribution of each source is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. We find that the main source of error is due to the misclassification of future regimes.Markov Switching; Regime Shifts; Forecasting;

What causes the forecasting failure of Markov-Switching models? A Monte Carlo study

This paper explores the forecasting abilities of Markov-Switching models. Although MS models generally display a superior in-sample fit relative to linear models, the gain in prediction remains small. We confirm this result using simulated data for a wide range of specifications by applying several tests of forecast accuracy and encompassing robust to nested models. In order to explain this poor performance, we use a forecasting error decomposition. We identify four components and derive their analytical expressions in different MS specifications. The relative contribution of each source is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. We find that the main source of error is due to the misclassification of future regimes.Forecasting, Regime Shifts, Markov-Switching.

On-the-Fly Coding for Real-Time Applications

Although ironically it does not offer any real-time guarantee, Internet is a popular solution to support multimedia time-constrained applications (e.g. VoIP, Video Conferencing, ...). Following this trend, this paper focuses on the performance of these applications by studying the benefit of using a novel reliability concept which aims at signifi- cantly improving the performance of these time constrained applications over lossy best-effort networks. This reliability mechanism emerged from several recent works from both network and coding theories. Its principle is to integrate feedbacks in an on-the fly coding scheme in order to optimize the trade-off ”packet decoding delay” vs ”throughput”. We present the first evaluations of this mechanism for VoIP and video-conferencing applications for various erasure channels. Compared to classic block-based erasure codes, the results show significant gains in terms of quality observed by the user for both applications

IP-Level Satellite Link Emulation with KauNet

Distributed applications and transport protocols communicating over a satellite link may react very strongly to conditions specific to that kind of link. Providing a evaluation framework to allow tests of real implementations of such software in that context is quite a challenging task. In this paper we demonstrate how the use of the general-purpose KauNet IP-level emulator combined with satellite-specific packet loss patterns can help by reproducing losses and delays experienced on a satellite link with a simple Ethernet LAN setup. Such a platform is an essential tool for developers performing continuous testing as they provide new features for e.g. video codecs or transport-level software like DCCP and its congestion control components

Pôle de compétitivité et réseaux de proximité : l'émergence d'une nouvelle dynamique de proximité ?

L'objectif de cette communication est de montrer en quoi la politique de pôle de compétitivité mobilise ou espère mobiliser des ressources provenant des effets de proximité. Pour cela, nous nous concentrerons sur trois aspects qui nous paraissent essentiels : la proximité géographique, la proximité technologique et la proximité institutionnelle. Nous mobiliserons des éléments illustratifs tirés de l'exemple du pôle de compétitivité VIAMEC