The Factors of Interest Group Networks and Success: Organization, Issues and Resources

While interest groups use a variety of techniques to exert influence, coalition strategies are the dominant lobbying technique. However, many questions remain about such coalitions. This paper is the second in a series of social network analyses of purposive and coordinated interest group relationships. We utilize a network measure based on cosigner status to United States Supreme Court amicus curiae, or friend of the court briefs. The illuminated structures lend insight into the central players and overall formation of the network over the first several years of the 21st century. The factions are tied together by various central players, who act as hubs, leaving a disparate collection of organizations that work alone. Using an exponential-family random graph model (ERGM), we find that graph-theorectic and organizational characteristics, such as size and budget, as well as policy interests explain interest group network formation

Invaluable Involvement: Purposive Interest Group Networks in the 21st Century

We present the first social network analysis of purposive and coordinated interest group relationships. We utilize a network measure based on cosigner status to United States Supreme Court amicus curiae, or friend of the court briefs. The illuminated structures lend insight into the central players and overall formation of the network over the first seven years of the 21st century. We find that the majority of interest groups primarily partake in coalition strategies with other groups of similar policy interest and ideological character. This is in contrast to previous literature that focused only on one or the other. The factions are tied together by various central players, who act as hubs, leaving a disparate collection of organizations that work alone. Network analysis provides evidence, for example, that the National Wildlife Foundation, the National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers and the American Civil Liberties Union are all particularly strong groups, but exploit different central roles. Ultimately, our work and data suggest several subsequent questions and opportunities pertaining to the coalition strategies of interest groups

Event dependence in U.S. executions

Since 1976, the United States has seen over 1,400 judicial executions, and these have been highly concentrated in only a few states and counties. The number of executions across counties appears to fit a stretched distribution. These distributions are typically reflective of self-reinforcing processes where the probability of observing an event increases for each previous event. To examine these processes, we employ two-pronged empirical strategy. First, we utilize bootstrapped Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to determine whether the pattern of executions reflect a stretched distribution, and confirm that they do. Second, we test for event-dependence using the Conditional Frailty Model. Our tests estimate the monthly hazard of an execution in a given county, accounting for the number of previous executions, homicides, poverty, and population demographics. Controlling for other factors, we find that the number of prior executions in a county increases the probability of the next execution and accelerates its timing. Once a jurisdiction goes down a given path, the path becomes self-reinforcing, causing the counties to separate out into those never executing (the vast majority of counties) and those which use the punishment frequently. This finding is of great legal and normative concern, and ultimately, may not be consistent with the equal protection clause of the U.S. Constitution

Equalizing Expenditures in Congressional Campaigns: A Proposal

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/63363/1/elj.2007.6202.lowlink.pdf_v03.pd

Financial Data Transparency, International Institutions, and Sovereign Borrowing Costs

Recent events in international finance illustrate the close connection between the viability of a country's major private financial institutions and the sustainability of its sovereign debt. We explore the precise nature of this connection and the ways in which it shapes investors’ expectations of sovereign creditworthiness. We consider how investors use the overall level of information available about the private financial sector—and the potential risks it poses to government finances—when making decisions about investing in sovereign debt. We expect that governments providing more information about the private financial sector will have lower, and less volatile, borrowing costs. In order to test this argument, we create a new Financial Data Transparency (FDT) Index measuring governments’ willingness to release credible financial system data. Using the FDT and a sample of high-income OECD countries, we find that such transparency reduces sovereign borrowing costs. The effects are conditional on the level of public indebtedness. Transparent countries with low debt enjoy lower and less volatile borrowing costs

Analysis of leaf appearance, leaf death and phoma leaf spot, caused by Leptosphaeria maculans, on oilseed rape (Brassica napus) cultivars

The definitive version can be found at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ Copyright Association of Applied BiologistsDevelopment of phoma leaf spot (caused by Leptosphaeria maculans) on winter oilseed rape (canola, Brassica napus) was assessed in two experiments at Rothamsted in successive years (2003-04 and 2004-05 growing seasons). Both experiments compared oilseed rape cultivars Eurol, Darmor, Canberra and Lipton, which differ in their resistance to L. maculans. Data were analysed to describe disease development in terms of increasing numbers of leaves affected over thermal time from sowing. The cultivars showed similar patterns of leaf spot development in the 2003-04 experiment when inoculum concentration was relatively low (up to 133 ascospores m-3 air), Darmor developing 5.3 diseased leaves per plant by 5 May 2004, Canberra 6.6, Eurol 6.8 and Lipton 7.5. Inoculum concentration was up to sevenfold greater in 2004-05, with Eurol and Darmor developing 2.4 diseased leaves per plant by 16 February 2005, whereas Lipton and Canberra developed 2.8 and 3.0 diseased leaves, respectively. Based on three defined periods of crop development, a piece-wise linear statistical model was applied to the progress of the leaf spot disease (cumulative diseased leaves) in relation to appearance ('birth') and death of leaves for individual plants of each cultivar. Estimates of the thermal time from sowing until appearance of the first leaf or death of the first leaf, the rate of increase in number of diseased leaves and the area under the disease progress line (AUDPL) for the first time period were made. In 2004-05, Canberra (1025 leaves x degrees C days) and Lipton (879) had greater AUDPL values than Eurol (427) and Darmor (598). For Darmor and Lipton, the severity of leaf spotting could be related to the severity of stem canker at harvest. Eurol had less leaf spotting but severe stem canker, whereas Canberra had more leaf spotting but less severe canker.Peer reviewe

Secularism, fundamentalism or Catholicism: the religious composition of the United States to 2043

We provide a cohort-component projection of the religious composition of the United States, considering differences in fertility, migration, intergenerational religious transmission, and switching among 11 ethnoreligious groups. If fertility and migration trends continue, Hispanic Catholics will experience rapid growth and expand from 10 to 18 percent of the American population between 2003 and 2043. Protestants are projected to decrease from 47 to 39 percent over the same period, while Catholicism emerges as the largest religion among the youngest age cohorts. Liberal Protestants decline relative to other groups due to low fertility and losses from religious switching. Immigration drives growth among Hindus and Muslims, while low fertility and a mature age structure causes Jewish decline. The low fertility of secular Americans and the religiosity of immigrants provide a countervailing force to secularization, causing the nonreligious population share to peak before 2043

It Takes Two

Theories of conflict emphasize dyadic interaction, yet existing empirical studies of civil war focus largely on state attributes and pay little attention to nonstate antagonists. We recast civil war in a dyadic perspective, and consider how nonstate actor attributes and their relationship to the state influence conflict dynamics. We argue that strong rebels, who pose a military challenge to the government, are likely to lead to short wars and concessions. Conflicts where rebels seem weak can become prolonged if rebels can operate in the periphery so as to defy a government victory yet are not strong enough to extract concessions. Conflicts should be shorter when potential insurgents can rely on alternative political means to violence. We examine these hypotheses in a dyadic analysis of civil war duration and outcomes, using new data on nonstate actors and conflict attributes, finding support for many of our conjectures. </jats:p

The diffusion of financial supervisory governance ideas

Who is watching the financial services industry? Since 1980, there have been multiple waves of thought about whether the ministry of finance, the central bank, a specialized regulator or some combination of these should have supervisory authority. These waves have been associated with the convergence of actual practices. How much and through what channels did internationally promoted ideas about supervisory 'best practice' influence institutional design choices? I use a new dataset of 83 countries and jurisdictions between the 1980s and 2007 to examine the diffusion of supervisory ideas. With this data, I employ Cox Proportional Hazard and Competing Risks Event History Analyses to evaluate the possible causal roles best practice policy ideas might have played. I find that banking crises and certain peer groups can encourage policy convergence on heavily promoted ideas

Ideological Labels in America

This paper extends Ellis and Stimson’s (Ideology in America. New York: Cambridge UniversityPress, 2012) study of the operational-symbolic paradox using issue-level measures of ideological incongruence based on respondent positions and symbolic labels for these positions across 14 issues. Like Ellis and Stimson, we find that substantial numbers—over 30 %—of Americans experience conflicted conservatism. Our issue-level data reveal, furthermore, that conflicted conservatism is most common on the issues of education and welfare spending. In addition, we also find that 20 % of Americans exhibit conflicted liberalism. We then replicate Ellis and Stimson’s finding that conflicted conservatism is associated with low sophistication and religiosity, but also find that it is associated with being socialized in a post-1960s generation and using Fox News as a main news source. Finally, we show the important role played by identities, with both conflicted conservatism and conflicted liberalism linked with partisan and ideological identities, and conflicted liberalism additionally associated with ethnic identities