Design considerations and analysis planning of a phase 2a proof of concept study in rheumatoid arthritis in the presence of possible non-monotonicity

BACKGROUND: It is important to quantify the dose response for a drug in phase 2a clinical trials so the optimal doses can then be selected for subsequent late phase trials. In a phase 2a clinical trial of new lead drug being developed for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a U-shaped dose response curve was observed. In the light of this result further research was undertaken to design an efficient phase 2a proof of concept (PoC) trial for a follow-on compound using the lessons learnt from the lead compound. METHODS: The planned analysis for the Phase 2a trial for GSK123456 was a Bayesian Emax model which assumes the dose-response relationship follows a monotonic sigmoid "S" shaped curve. This model was found to be suboptimal to model the U-shaped dose response observed in the data from this trial and alternatives approaches were needed to be considered for the next compound for which a Normal dynamic linear model (NDLM) is proposed. This paper compares the statistical properties of the Bayesian Emax model and NDLM model and both models are evaluated using simulation in the context of adaptive Phase 2a PoC design under a variety of assumed dose response curves: linear, Emax model, U-shaped model, and flat response. RESULTS: It is shown that the NDLM method is flexible and can handle a wide variety of dose-responses, including monotonic and non-monotonic relationships. In comparison to the NDLM model the Emax model excelled with higher probability of selecting ED90 and smaller average sample size, when the true dose response followed Emax like curve. In addition, the type I error, probability of incorrectly concluding a drug may work when it does not, is inflated with the Bayesian NDLM model in all scenarios which would represent a development risk to pharmaceutical company. The bias, which is the difference between the estimated effect from the Emax and NDLM models and the simulated value, is comparable if the true dose response follows a placebo like curve, an Emax like curve, or log linear shape curve under fixed dose allocation, no adaptive allocation, half adaptive and adaptive scenarios. The bias though is significantly increased for the Emax model if the true dose response follows a U-shaped curve. CONCLUSIONS: In most cases the Bayesian Emax model works effectively and efficiently, with low bias and good probability of success in case of monotonic dose response. However, if there is a belief that the dose response could be non-monotonic then the NDLM is the superior model to assess the dose response

Enhanced saccadic control in young people with Tourette syndrome despite slowed pro-saccades

Tourette syndrome (TS) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterised by motor and vocal tics. Tics are repetitive and uncontrolled behaviours that have been associated with basal ganglia dysfunction. We investigated saccadic eye movements in a group of young people with TS but without co-morbid ADHD. Participants performed two tasks. One required them to perform only pro-saccade responses (pure pro-saccade task). The other involved shifting, unpredictably, between executing pro- and anti-saccades (mixed saccade task). We show that in the mixing saccade task, the TS group make significantly fewer errors than an age-matched control group, while responding equally fast. By contrast, on the pure pro-saccade task the TS group were shown to be significantly slower to initiate and to complete the saccades (longer movement duration and decreased peak velocity) than controls, while movement amplitude and direction accuracy were not different. These findings demonstrate enhanced shifting ability despite slower reflexive responding in TS and are discussed with respect to a disorder-related adaptation for increased cognitive regulation of behaviour

Development and validation of a severity scale for leprosy Type 1 Reactions

Objectives: To develop a valid and reliable quantitative measure of leprosy Type 1 reactions.Methods: A scale was developed from previous scales which had not been validated. The face and content validity were assessed following consultation with recognised experts in the field. The construct validity was determined by applying the scale to patients in Bangladesh and Brazil who had been diagnosed with leprosy Type 1 reaction. An expert categorized each patient's reaction as mild or moderate or severe. Another worker applied the scale. This was done independently. In a subsequent stage of the study the agreement between two observers was assessed.Results: The scale had good internal consistency demonstrated by a Cronbach's alpha &gt;0.8. Removal of three items from the original scale resulted in better discrimination between disease severity categories. Cut off points for Type 1 reaction severities were determined using Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. A mild Type 1 reaction is characterized using the final scale by a score of 4 or less. A moderate reaction is a score of between 4.5 and 8.5. A severe reaction is a score of 9 or more.Conclusions: We have developed a valid and reliable tool for quantifying leprosy Type 1 reaction severity and believe this will be a useful tool in research of this condition, in observational and intervention studies, and in the comparison of clinical and laboratory parameters.<br/

Efficiency and safety of varying the frequency of whole blood donation (INTERVAL): a randomised trial of 45 000 donors

Background: Limits on the frequency of whole blood donation exist primarily to safeguard donor health. However, there is substantial variation across blood services in the maximum frequency of donations allowed. We compared standard practice in the UK with shorter inter-donation intervals used in other countries. Methods: In this parallel group, pragmatic, randomised trial, we recruited whole blood donors aged 18 years or older from 25 centres across England, UK. By use of a computer-based algorithm, men were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 12-week (standard) versus 10-week versus 8-week inter-donation intervals, and women were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 16-week (standard) versus 14-week versus 12-week intervals. Participants were not masked to their allocated intervention group. The primary outcome was the number of donations over 2 years. Secondary outcomes related to safety were quality of life, symptoms potentially related to donation, physical activity, cognitive function, haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and deferrals because of low haemoglobin. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN24760606, and is ongoing but no longer recruiting participants. Findings: 45 263 whole blood donors (22 466 men, 22 797 women) were recruited between June 11, 2012, and June 15, 2014. Data were analysed for 45 042 (99·5%) participants. Men were randomly assigned to the 12-week (n=7452) versus 10-week (n=7449) versus 8-week (n=7456) groups; and women to the 16-week (n=7550) versus 14-week (n=7567) versus 12-week (n=7568) groups. In men, compared with the 12-week group, the mean amount of blood collected per donor over 2 years increased by 1·69 units (95% CI 1·59–1·80; approximately 795 mL) in the 8-week group and by 0·79 units (0·69–0·88; approximately 370 mL) in the 10-week group (p&lt;0·0001 for both). In women, compared with the 16-week group, it increased by 0·84 units (95% CI 0·76–0·91; approximately 395 mL) in the 12-week group and by 0·46 units (0·39–0·53; approximately 215 mL) in the 14-week group (p&lt;0·0001 for both). No significant differences were observed in quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function across randomised groups. However, more frequent donation resulted in more donation-related symptoms (eg, tiredness, breathlessness, feeling faint, dizziness, and restless legs, especially among men [for all listed symptoms]), lower mean haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and more deferrals for low haemoglobin (p&lt;0·0001 for each) than those observed in the standard frequency groups. Interpretation: Over 2 years, more frequent donation than is standard practice in the UK collected substantially more blood without having a major effect on donors' quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function, but resulted in more donation-related symptoms, deferrals, and iron deficiency. Funding: NHS Blood and Transplant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation

Subthreshold psychosis in 22q11.2 deletion syndrome: multisite naturalistic study

Nearly one-third of individuals with 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11.2DS) develop a psychotic disorder during life, most of them by early adulthood. Importantly, a full-blown psychotic episode is usually preceded by subthreshold symptoms. In the current study, 760 participants (aged 6-55 years) with a confirmed hemizygous 22q11.2 microdeletion have been recruited through 10 medical sites worldwide, as part of an international research consortium. Of them, 692 were nonpsychotic and with complete measurement data. Subthreshold psychotic symptoms were assessed using the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS). Nearly one-third of participants met criteria for positive subthreshold psychotic symptoms (32.8%), less than 1% qualified for acute positive subthreshold symptoms, and almost a quarter met criteria for negative/disorganized subthreshold symptoms (21.7%). Adolescents and young adults (13-25 years) showed the highest rates of subthreshold psychotic symptoms. Additionally, higher rates of anxiety disorders and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) were found among the study participants with subthreshold psychotic symptoms compared to those without. Full-scale IQ, verbal IQ, and global functioning (GAF) scores were negatively associated with participants' subthreshold psychotic symptoms. This study represents the most comprehensive analysis reported to date on subthreshold psychosis in 22q11.2DS. Novel findings include age-related changes in subthreshold psychotic symptoms and evidence that cognitive deficits are associated with subthreshold psychosis in this population. Future studies should longitudinally follow these symptoms to detect whether and how early identification and treatment of these manifestations can improve long-term outcomes in those that eventually develop a psychotic disorder

Nightside ionosphere of Mars: Modeling the effects of crustal magnetic fields and electron pitch angle distributions on electron impact ionization

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95654/1/jgre2678.pd

Facial Cosmetics and Attractiveness: Comparing the Effect Sizes of Professionally-Applied Cosmetics and Identity

Forms of body decoration exist in all human cultures. However, in Western societies, women are more likely to engage in appearance modification, especially through the use of facial cosmetics. How effective are cosmetics at altering attractiveness? Previous research has hinted that the effect is not large, especially when compared to the variation in attractiveness observed between individuals due to differences in identity. In order to build a fuller understanding of how cosmetics and identity affect attractiveness, here we examine how professionally-applied cosmetics alter attractiveness and compare this effect with the variation in attractiveness observed between individuals. In Study 1, 33 YouTube models were rated for attractiveness before and after the application of professionally-applied cosmetics. Cosmetics explained a larger proportion of the variation in attractiveness compared with previous studies, but this effect remained smaller than variation caused by differences in attractiveness between individuals. Study 2 replicated the results of the first study with a sample of 45 supermodels, with the aim of examining the effect of cosmetics in a sample of faces with low variation in attractiveness between individuals. While the effect size of cosmetics was generally large, between-person variability due to identity remained larger. Both studies also found interactions between cosmetics and identity-more attractive models received smaller increases when cosmetics were worn. Overall, we show that professionally- applied cosmetics produce a larger effect than self-applied cosmetics, an important theoretical consideration for the field. However, the effect of individual differences in facial appearance is ultimately more important in perceptions of attractiveness

Patients' preferences for subcutaneous trastuzumab versus conventional intravenous infusion for the adjuvant treatment of HER2-positive early breast cancer: final analysis of 488 patients in the international, randomized, two-cohort PrefHer study

PrefHer revealed compelling and consistent patient preference for subcutaneous (s.c.) trastuzumab, regardless of delivery by single-use injection device or hand-held syringe. s.c. trastuzumab was well-tolerated and safety data, including immunogenicity, were consistent with previous reports. No new safety signals were identified compared with the known intravenous trastuzumab profile in early breast cance