How strongly are business cycles and financial cycles linked in the G7 countries?

In this study we examine the dynamic interactions between credit growth and output growth using the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). Based on quarterly data on credit growth and GDP growth over the period 1957Q1-2012Q4 for the G7 countries we find that: i) spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth evolve rather heterogeneously over time and across countries, and increase during extreme economic events. ii) Spillovers between credit growth and GDP growth are of bidirectional nature, indicating bidirectional causation between the financial and real sectors. iii) In the period shorty before and on the onset of the global financial crisis, the link between credit growth and GDP growth becomes more pronounced. In particular, the financial sector plays a dominant role during the early stages of the crisis, while the real sector quickly takes over as the dominant source of spillovers. iv) Interestingly, credit growth in the US is the dominant transmitter of shocks internationally, and especially to other countries' real sectors in the run up period to (and during) the global financial crisis. Overall, our results suggest feedback effects between the financial and the real sectors that create rippling effects within and between the G7 countries during the global financial crisis

Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were Loan Supply Shocks?

We evaluate contributions of exogenous loan supply shocks to output dynamics during the Great Depression. Based on a structural VAR, we impose sign restrictions to identify loan supply shocks in addition to standard macroeconomic shocks. Our results indicate that the banking panics that occurred in the early 1930s were associated with negative loan supply shocks, supporting the view that disruptions in financial intermediation contributed significantly to the severity of the Great Depression

The Bank Lending Channel and the Market for Banks' Wholesale Funding

The bank lending channel (BLC) holds that monetary policy is transmitted through the supply of bank loans. While the original formulation of the BLC stresses an imperfect substitution between reservable and non-reservable sources of banks' funding, as the transmission mechanism, recent contributions highlight changes of banks' risk premia as a more relevant link between monetary policy and loan supply. Using U.S. data, we quantify the relative importance of these two complementary channels with a SVAR approach. The differently transmitted monetary policy shocks are identified with sigh restrictions that disentangle different dynamics on the market for banks' wholesale funding. We find that policy shocks associated with dynamics on the wholesale funding market that are consistent with the traditional BLC or changes in banks' risk premia, contribute both to the variation of total loans, with the latter mechanism being nearly twice as strong as the traditional BLC

Ternary H_2SO_4-H_2O-NH_3 Neutral and Charged Nucleation Rates for a Wide Range of Atmospheric Conditions

The formation of new particles for the ternary system involving sulfuric acid, water vapor and ammonia has been studied in detail. The nucleation rates were obtained from experiments at the CERN CLOUD chamber which allows the measurement of new particle formation under very well defined conditions. Some of its key features are the suppression of contaminants at the technological limit and a very precise control of a wide range of temperatures, trace gas concentrations and nucleation rates. The effect of ionizing radiation on the ternary nucleation rates was investigated by using the CERN proton synchrotron beam (beam conditions), natural galactic cosmic rays (gcr conditions) as well as the high voltage clearing field inside the chamber to suppress the effect of charges (neutral conditions). The dependence of the nucleation rate on ion concentration, sulfuric acid and ammonia concentration as well as temperature was studied extensively. This way, an unprecedented set of data was collected giving insight into the role of neutral and charged ternary NH_3 nucleation and the relative importance of the different parameters

Miners and mining in the Late Bronze Age: a multidisciplinary study from Austria

The extraction and processing of metal ores, particularly those of copper and tin, are regarded as among the principal motors of Bronze Age society. The skills and risks of mining lie behind the weapons, tools and symbols that drove political and ideological change. But we hear much less about the miners themselves and their position in society. Who were these people? Were they rich and special, or expendable members of a hard-pressed workforce? In this study the spotlight moves from the adits, slags and furnaces to the bones and seeds, providing a sketch of dedicated prehistoric labourers in their habitat. The Mauken miners were largely dependent on imported meat and cereals, and scarcely hunted or foraged the resources of the local forest. They seem to be the servants of a command economy, encouraged to keep their minds on the jo

X-ray Crystallographic Studies on Inhibitor Complexes of Protein Kinase A and SRC Kinase Domain

Proteinkinasen spielen bei der Signaltransduktion und der Regulation der Zelle eine große Rolle. Sie sind auch an zellulären Prozessen, wie Metabolismus, Transkription, Zellzuklusprogression, Organisation des Cytoskeletts, Zellbewegung und Apoptose beteiligt. Ist die strenge Regulation der Kinasen gestört, kann es zu unkontrolliertem Zellwachstum und Krebs kommen. In vielen Tumoren wird eine gesteigerte Expression oder Aktivität von Kinasen beobachtet. Deshalb werden kleine Moleküle als Inhibitoren für die Therapie gesucht. Kristallographische Untersuchungen der Proteinkinase A (PKA) und der Kinasedomäne von SRC sowie deren Inhibitor-Komplexen zeigen Bindungsmodi auf und bilden die Basis für strukturbasiertes Wirkstoffdesign. Proteinkinase A dient als Modell-Kinase für nahe verwandte Kinasen wie Rho-Kinase, Proteinkinase B (PKB) oder Proteinkinase C (PKC), die selber nicht kristallisiert werden können. Verschiedene Klassen von ATP-kompetitiven Inhibitoren wurden mit PKA kokristallisiert, die Röntgenstrukturen gelöst und analysiert. Rho-Kinase-Inhibitoren Fasudil, H 1152P und Y-27632 hemmen auch an PKA, allerdings schwächer. Die Inhibitoren binden in der Adenosin-Bindetasche mit Kontakten zu Aminosäuren, die unterschiedlich in PKA und Rho-Kinase sind und so zur Selektivität beitragen können. PKB-Inhibitoren sind vom Naturstoff Balanol abgeleitet und extensiv modifiziert worden. 29 Strukturen mit PKA und PKAB-Mutanten, zeigen den Einfluss verschiedener Molekülteile der Inhibitoren auf die Affinität zu PKA und PKB. Bisindolylmaleimide, die vor allem PKC inhibieren, sind offenkettige Derivate vom universellen Kinase-Inhibitor Staurosporin abgeleitet. Sie binden im Gegensatz zu den anderen Inhibitoren an eine offene Konformation des Enzyms. Zusätzlich zeigen einige Strukturen Besonderheiten, wie eine verlängerte Helix A oder einhakte Moleküle (Dimer). Verschiedene Kristallisationsbedingungen wurden für die Kinasedomäne von Src gefunden und die Kokristallisation mit verschiedenen Inhibitoren etabliert. Verschieden Kristallformen und unterschiedliche Raumgruppen treten auf. Die Proteinstruktur zeigt eine sehr starke Flexibilität in der Konformation der Domänen zueinander. Sie ist aktiven Kinase-Strukturen (Lck, PKA) ähnlicher als der bereits bekannten inaktiven Struktur von Src. Die Kristallpackung lässt eine gewisse Flexibilität zu und der Aktivierungsloop ist im Allgemeinen nicht geordnet. Die Inhibitoren sind in der Elektronendichte gut definiert. Sie sind ATP-kompetitiv und binden an der ATP-Bindestelle, wobei nur die Adenosin-Tasche besetzt wird.Protein kinases play an important role in signal transduction and the regulation of the eukaryotic cell. They are involved in metabolism, transcription, cell cycle progression, cell adhesion and motility, cell division, differentiation and apoptosis. Therefore strict control is necessary to avoid for example uncontrolled growth and cancer. Increased expression levels and/or activity are found in many tumors, for which small molecule inhibitors are sought for therapy. Crystallographic studies of protein kinase A and the catalytic domain of SRC and their inhibitor complexes show binding modes and are required for structure-based drug design. Protein kinase A also serves as a model kinase for related kinases such as Rho-kinase, protein kinase B (PKB/Akt) or protein kinase C (PKC). Several classes of ATP competitive inhibitors have been cocrystallized with PKA. The X-ray structures have been solved and analysed. Rho-kinase inhibitors (fasudil, H-1152P and Y-27632) bind also to PKA although more weakly. The inhibitors bind in the adenosine pocket with contacts to amino acids that differ between Rho-kinase and PKA and thus contribute to the differing affinities. PKB-inhibitors derived from the natural product Balanol and were extensively modified. 29 structures of PKA and PKA mutants show the importance of different parts of the molecule for the affinity. Bisindolylmaleimides are potent PKC inhibitors related to staurosporine. They bind, in contrast to the other inhibitors, to a more open conformation of the enzyme. Additionally, some structures show specific features, such as an extended helix A that projects the myristoylation site into solution, or dimers with an interlinked C-Terminus. Several crystallization conditions have been found for the kinase domain of SRC and cocrystallization with different inhibitors has been established, yielding various crystal packing arrangements. The structure of the protein resembles active structures of other kinases (Lck, PKA) more than the previously known inactive SRC structure. The crystal packing allows a certain flexibility, reflecting likely physiological flexibility, including disorder of the activation loop. The inhibitors are nevertheless well defined in the electron density. They are ATP competitive and bind to the active site, occupying only the adenosine binding pocket

Experimental particle formation rates spanning tropospheric sulfuric acid and ammonia abundances, ion production rates, and temperatures

Binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water as well as ternary nucleation involving ammonia are thought to be the dominant processes responsible for new particle formation (NPF) in the cold temperatures of the middle and upper troposphere. Ions are also thought to be important for particle nucleation in these regions. However, global models presently lack experimentally measured NPF rates under controlled laboratory conditions and so at present must rely on theoretical or empirical parameterizations. Here with data obtained in the European Organization for Nuclear Research CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber, we present the first experimental survey of NPF rates spanning free tropospheric conditions. The conditions during nucleation cover a temperature range from 208 to 298K, sulfuric acid concentrations between 5x10(5) and 1x10(9)cm(-3), and ammonia mixing ratios from zero added ammonia, i.e., nominally pure binary, to a maximum of -1400 parts per trillion by volume (pptv). We performed nucleation studies under pure neutral conditions with zero ions being present in the chamber and at ionization rates of up to 75ion pairs cm(-3)s(-1) to study neutral and ion-induced nucleation. We found that the contribution from ion-induced nucleation is small at temperatures between 208 and 248K when ammonia is present at several pptv or higher. However, the presence of charges significantly enhances the nucleation rates, especially at 248K with zero added ammonia, and for higher temperatures independent of NH3 levels. We compare these experimental data with calculated cluster formation rates from the Atmospheric Cluster Dynamics Code with cluster evaporation rates obtained from quantum chemistry.Peer reviewe

Causes and importance of new particle formation in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres

New particle formation has been estimated to produce around half of cloud-forming particles in the present-day atmosphere, via gas-to-particle conversion. Here we assess the importance of new particle formation (NPF) for both the present-day and the pre-industrial atmospheres. We use a global aerosol model with parametrisations of NPF from previously published CLOUD chamber experiments involving sulphuric acid, ammonia, organic molecules and ions. We find that NPF produces around 67% of cloud condensation nuclei at 0.2% supersaturation (CCN0.2%) at the level of low clouds in the pre-industrial atmosphere (estimated uncertainty range 45-84%) and 54% in the present day (estimated uncertainty range 38-66%). Concerning causes, we find that the importance of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) in NPF and CCN formation is greater than previously thought. Removing BVOCs and hence all secondary organic aerosol from our model reduces low-cloud-level CCN concentrations at 0.2% supersaturation by 26% in the present-day atmosphere and 41% in the pre-industrial. Around three-quarters of this reduction is due to the tiny fraction of the oxidation products of BVOCs that have sufficiently low volatility to be involved in NPF and early growth. Furthermore, we estimate that 40% of pre-industrial CCN0.2% are formed via ion-induced NPF, compared with 27% in the present-day, although we caution that the ion-induced fraction of NPF involving BVOCs is poorly measured at present. Our model suggests that the effect of changes in cosmic ray intensity on CCN is small and unlikely to be comparable to the effect of large variations in natural primary aerosol emissions

Global atmospheric particle formation from CERN CLOUD measurements

Fundamental questions remain about the origin of newly formed atmospheric aerosol particles because data from laboratory measurements have been insufficient to build global models. In contrast, gas-phase chemistry models have been based on laboratory kinetics measurements for decades. Here we build a global model of aerosol formation using extensive laboratory-measured nucleation rates involving sulfuric acid, ammonia, ions and organic compounds. The simulations and a comparison with atmospheric observations show that nearly all nucleation throughout the present-day atmosphere involves ammonia or biogenic organic compounds in addition to sulfuric acid. A significant fraction of nucleation involves ions, but the relatively weak dependence on ion concentrations indicates that for the processes studied variations in cosmic ray intensity do not significantly affect climate via nucleation in the present-day atmosphere