The Role of Welfare and Space in the Migration of the Poor

This study investigates whether interstate differences in welfare benefits affected destination choices of low-income households in the United States during the 1985-90 period. It considers place-to-place migration decisions of poor single-parent females within a conditional logit framework. The research develops an array of variables that add a substantial spatial component to the analysis. The empirical results reconcile conclusions of recent academic literature with the views of state policy officials, but in a somewhat unexpected way. This study finds only modest evidence of a welfare magnet effect, and only for contiguous states. On the other hand, the study strongly confirms the importance of space and connections between places when explaining migration of the poor

Location-Specific Amenities, Equilibrium, and Constraints on Location Choices

This research considers how preferences for location-specific attributes might constrain migration destination choices. In particular, if, at any given time, most people are consuming their desired location-specific attributes, then unwillingness to give up these attributes may influence the decision to migrate. For those who migrate, these desired attributes might significantly constrain the locations they would consider. This perspective differs substantially from the normal approach that assumes people move toward “good attributes” and away from “bad attributes.” The research provides an initial test of a “constrained destination choice” hypothesis by considering “locational attribute constraints” in the context of aggregate place-to-place migration flows for U.S. metropolitan areas during the 1995-2000 time period

Specification of Functional Form in Models of Population Migration

A characteristic of the empirical literature on internal population migration is widely varying results and often conflicting conclusions regarding relative importance of explanatory factors. There are a number of possible explanations for these conflicting findings, some of which have received little attention in the literature. This paper focuses on one major specification issue in the context of an aggregate migration model: choice of functional form. The discussion lays out a theoretical basis for choosing functional form. It follows this with a comparison of empirical results for several functional forms. Statistical tests are used to choose the most appropriate functional form

State Minimum Wage Laws and the Migration of the Poor

A substantial literature considers migration of the poor, mostly focusing on the relative importance of welfare programs versus labor market opportunities in the migration decisions of the poor. Likewise, a growing literature investigates the effect of changes in the minimum wage on U.S. poverty, focusing exclusively on the federal minimum wage. These two literatures have not intersected to examine how minimum wage laws influence migration decisions of the poor. Real federal minimum wages, minimum wage coverage, and state minimum wage laws all vary spatially. This research investigates the extent to which federal and state minimum wage laws affected migration choices of low-income households in the United States during the 1985-90 period. The study finds that the level of state minimum wages and the extent of federal minimum wage coverage both alter migration choices of the poor

The Interaction between Individuals’ Destination Choice and Occupational Choice: A Simultaneous Equation Approach

This study examines the relationship between an individual’s occupation choice and destination choice. It portrays the relationship as an interaction between the supply of occupational skills by individuals and demand by different labor market regions. The analysis applies a two-equation simultaneous system: (1) a multinomial logit model of occupational choice and (2) a conditional logit model of state destination choice. The unusual merger of multinomial logit and conditional logit models in a simultaneous equation framework requires derivation of a unique variancecovariance matrix. The results indicate strong association between supply of (migration) and demand for (industry mix) an individual’s occupational skills. [JEL Classification: R23, J61, J62

Conditional Logit, IIA, and Alternatives for Estimating Models of Interstate Migration

Many researchers have used the conditional logit model to examine migration. One common objection to this model is that it carries the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption, which may be too restrictive. This study compares the conditional logit with models that partially relax (nested logit) or fully relax (mixed logit) the IIA assumption. We will begin to learn whether assuming IIA holds poses serious estimation problems for migration modeling. Given the substantial computational cost of the more complex models, a finding that a well-specified, but computationally much simpler, conditional logit model may suffice would be useful

A Multi-Sector Export Base Model of Long-Run Regional Economic Growth

The relationships between intersectoral export and local employment and regional economic growth are analyzed in a long-run equilibrium framework. Dynamic location quotients decompose regional employment into export and local components for multiple sectors. Johansen’s Full-Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) approach is used to identify the existence and resultant rank of the co-integrating relationship between sectoral export and local employment in West Virginia’s four metropolitan areas. Empirical results indicate inter-sectoral basic and non-basic employment form a co-integrating system of equations. Furthermore, this analysis shows that inter-sector shocks to local and export employment may cause multipliers to be positive or negative in magnitude

Distribution-Free Statistical Inferences for Testing Marginal Changes in Inequality Indices

This paper develops asymptotically distribution-free inference for testing inequality indices with dependent samples. It considers the interpolated Gini coefficient and the generalized entropy class, which includes several commonly used inequality indices. We first establish inference tests for changes in inequality indices with completely dependent samples (i.e., matched pairs) and then generalize the inference procedures to cases with partially dependent samples. The effects of sample dependency on standard errors of inequality changes are examined through simulation studies as well as through applications to the CPS and PSID data

Conditional logit, IIA and alternatives for estimating modelsof interstate migration

Abstract: Many researchers have used the conditional logit model to examine migration. One common objection to this model is that it carries the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption, which may be too restrictive. This study compares the conditional logit with models that partially relax (nested logit) or fully relax (mixed logit) the IIA assumption. We will begin to learn whether assuming IIA holds poses serious estimation problems for migration modeling. Given the substantial computational cost of the more complex models, a finding that a well-specified, but computationally much simpler, conditional logit model may suffice would be useful.

Lattice effects observed in chaotic dynamics of experimental populations

Animals and many plants are counted in discrete units. The collection of possible values (state space) of population numbers is thus a nonnegative integer lattice. Despite this fact, many mathematical population models assume a continuum of system states. The complex dynamics, such as chaos, often displayed by such continuous-state models have stimulated much ecological research; yet discretestate models with bounded population size can display only cyclic behavior. Motivated by data from a population experiment, we compared the predictions of discrete-state and continuous-state population models. Neither the discrete- nor continuous-state models completely account for the data. Rather, the observed dynamics are explained by a stochastic blending of the chaotic dynamics predicted by the continuous-state model and the cyclic dynamics predicted by the discretestate models. We suggest that such lattice effects could be an important component of natural population fluctuations. The discovery that simple deterministic population models can display complex aperiodi