Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. Key words: carrying capacity , cod , hierarchical models , North Atlantic , temperature , uncertaint

47.4: Blue Phosphorescent Organic Light Emitting Device Stability Analysis

A model based on defect generation by exciton‐polaron annihilation interactions between the emitter and host molecules, in a blue phosphorescent OLED, is shown to fit well with experimental data. A blue PHOLED with (0.15, 0.25) chromaticity is shown to have a half‐life, from 1,000 nits, of 690 hrs.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/92134/1/1.3069766.pd

Baltic cod recruitment – the impact of climate variability on key processes

Large-scale climatic conditions prevailing over the central Baltic Sea resulted in declining salinity and oxygen concentrations in spawning areas of the eastern Baltic cod stock. These changes in hydrography reduced the reproductive success and, combined with high fishing pressure, caused a decline of the stock to the lowest level on record in the early 1990s. The present study aims at disentangling the interactions between reproductive effort and hydrographic forcing leading to variable recruitment. Based on identified key processes, stock dynamics is explained using updated environmental and life stage-specific abundance and production time-series. Declining salinities and oxygen concentrations caused high egg mortalities and indirectly increased egg predation by clupeid fish. Low recruitment, despite enhanced hydrographic conditions for egg survival in the mid-1990s, was due to food limitation for larvae, caused by the decline in the abundance of the copepod Pseudocalanus sp. The case of the eastern Baltic cod stock exemplifies the multitude effects climatic variability may have on a fish stock and underscores the importance of knowledge of these processes for understanding stock dynamics

Report on evaluation framework for holistic management – summary of the concept, requirements and management implications

Due to its unique characteristics with substantial drainage area and limited water exchange with the North Sea, considerable salinity gradient, permanent stratification as well as a combination of numerous, strong anthropogenic and climatic pressures the Baltic Sea environment is under constant stress. Considering the intensity of exploitation and complexity of pressures of natural and anthropogenic origin as well as their cumulative effects, the Baltic Sea biodiversity has to be investigated and managed in a holistic and integrated way. Even if some of those pressures cannot be successfully managed especially in a short-term perspective, it is absolutely crucial to consider their impact in suggested management actions. The approach needs to be adaptive to handle relevant spatial and temporal scales as well as foreseen and unforeseen changes. The goal of the BIO-C3 project was to move from the current “single driver/threat” approach to a science based, comprehensive, and integrated approach. In this report we are presenting data, monitoring, and knowledge requirements as well as assessment and analytical tools that are needed to establish a management evaluation framework for an adaptive, integrated management of biodiversity in the Baltic Sea. A comprehensive analysis of various aspects of drivers and pressures on marine biodiversity has been provided and discussed including the assessment of the cumulative effects of multiple human pressures as their perceived impacts on the Baltic ecosystem are in most cases a combination of different human induced pressures and an isolated analysis of the impact(s) of single pressures remain extremely challenging or impossible. The recently suggested risk management process to entrench the cumulative effect assessments adequately handles the associated uncertainty and streamlines the uptake of scientific outcomes into the science-policy interface..

Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

Larval Trophodynamics, Turbulence, and Drift on Georges Bank : A Sensitivity Analysis of Cod and Haddock

Using an individual-based model approach we consider trophodynamic effects on the growth and survival of larval cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) on Georges Bank during late winter/early spring. These studies represent an extension of results described in Werner et al. (1996; Deep-Sea Res. II), wherein the effect of turbulence-enhanced larval-prey contact rates increased the effective prey concentration resulting in growth of cod larvae consistent with observed rates in the field. We reformulated the feeding of the larvae to include existing relationships between maximum prey-length and larval-length and we examined: (i) larval search behaviour and its effect on encounter with prey, (ii) the ability of larvae to pursue and capture prey in a turbulent environment, and (iii) the effect of turbulence on the dispersion of larvae in the vertical. We find that search behaviour, the effect of turbulence on pursuit and capture, and vertical dispersion decrease the predicted larval growth rates compared to those observed in the earlier study. These results suggest that larval feeding behaviour, and especially the ability of larvae to pursue encountered prey, could be an important input to larval growth and survival models. The inclusion of turbulence in determining the position of passive larvae in the water column allows the larvae to sample the entire water column, contributing to a decrease in the variance of the size of the larvae over time. The ability of larvae to swim and aggregate in the vertical will be necessary to reproduce distributions observed in the field

Effect of type and concentration of ballasting particles on sinking rate of marine snow produced by the Appendicularian Oikopleura dioica

Ballast material (organic, opal, calcite, lithogenic) is suggested to affect sinking speed of aggregates in the ocean. Here, we tested this hypothesis by incubating appendicularians in suspensions of different algae or Saharan dust, and observing the sinking speed of the marine snow formed by their discarded houses. We show that calcite increases the sinking speeds of aggregates by ~100% and lithogenic material by ~150% while opal only has a minor effect. Furthermore the effect of ballast particle concentration was causing a 33 m d(-1) increase in sinking speed for a 5×10(5) µm(3) ml(-1) increase in particle concentration, near independent on ballast type. We finally compare our observations to the literature and stress the need to generate aggregates similar to those in nature in order to get realistic estimates of the impact of ballast particles on sinking speeds