Three Shades of Welfare in Applied Economics

This dissertation comprises of three essays, organized in chapters, on the broader topic of welfare in applied economics. The first essay studies the implications of high food prices resulting from climate change on food security in small islands, using Mauritius as a case-study. Climate change will adversely impact prices of agricultural commodities. The study derives and calculates the government cost and the welfare effects of an increase in world price of rice on consumers in Mauritius. Using an equilibrium displacement model, this study finds that an increase in the price of rice by 35%, as predicted by the literature on climate change and rice prices, will result in an increase of 28.8% in government spending, representing the additional outlays to support a rice subsidy scheme for food security. Using 2012 as the baseline, the welfare analysis results suggest that consumer surplus for ration rice consumers increases by Mauritian Rupees 626 million (USD 18 million) while consumer surplus decreases by Mauritian Rupees 454 million (USD13 million) for basmati rice consumers. The second paper focuses on welfare of women in society and hypothesizes that gender wage gap decreases with the implementation of a national gender policy framework (NGPF) from 2007 to 2017 on the island of Mauritius. Using data from the household budget surveys of 2007, 2012 and 2017, the impact of the policy is analyzed using difference-in-differences. The results indicate that no significant changes occurred in 2012 in the wage gap between men and women after controlling for human specification, industry, and occupation. The policy impact was significant in 2017 when controlling for industry and occupation. The final chapter attempts to determine whether negative personal attitudes toward welfare may prevent eligible persons from applying for food stamps in the United States. Using the dataset from the 2002 National Survey of American Families (NSAF), a logistic regression model was run. The findings of this study indicate that negative attitudes towards welfare may prevent people from applying for food stamps. Food insecurity on the other hand, increases the likelihood of applying for food stamps. Demographic variables such as education and marital status also influence the probability of applying for food stamps

The Importance Of Multi-Reader Assessment For External Validation Of Prostate Lesion Classification Models Using Quantitative MpMRI

Machine learning for classifying prostate mpMRI lesions may help reduce unnecessary biopsies. However, external validation with multiple scanners and readers is required before the clinical adoption of such models can be considered. Two readers validated a previously published and well-performing logistic regression model on an external cohort. The model performance was not generalisable and offered no advantage to using PSAd cut-offs, and there was marked variation in model score related to contour differences from different readers. This potential variability should be investigated in future models which use quantitative MRI

Management of Radiologically Indeterminate Magnetic Resonance Imaging Signals in Men at Risk of Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND: Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mp-MRI) is becoming an increasingly important diagnostic tool for prostate cancer. So far there has been little focus on management for indeterminate mp-MRI results. OBJECTIVE: To describe outcomes for a cohort of men rated as having an indeterminate mp-MRI result. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients were identified retrospectively from a single UK centre between October 2010 and January 2015. Patients were included if they had a Likert score of 3/5 on a first MRI scan without any prior prostate biopsy. Patients were offered one of two initial management strategies. Strategy 1 was an immediate targeted biopsy of the MRI lesion. Strategy 2 was a surveillance process comprising prostate-specific antigen monitoring and/or mp-MRI at intervals of 6-12 mo, with biopsy on a for-cause basis. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Cancer detection and treatment outcomes were compared for the two strategies. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Of 168 patients, 73 (43%) chose strategy 1 and 95 (57%) chose strategy two. The overall proportion of men with clinically significant cancer detected was 14% (23/168). The risk profile for cancer identified in the initial surveillance group was similar to that identified in the immediate biopsy group. Limitations of the study include the short follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Men with indeterminate mp-MRI were willing to forego immediate biopsy for a strategy of surveillance involving PSA measurement and/or mp-MRI repeated at intervals. The risk profile of the cancers identified by both strategies appeared similar, but many men in the surveillance group avoided the risks, complications, and costs of biopsy. Long-term results are awaited. PATIENT SUMMARY: This report compares two approaches for an uncertain magnetic resonance imaging result for clinically important prostate cancer: immediate biopsy versus surveillance with delayed biopsy if required. Delayed biopsy did not result in identification of cancer with adverse features, and many men benefited from avoiding a biopsy and its complications

Optimization and Repeatability of Multipool Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer MRI of the Prostate at 3.0 T

BACKGROUND: Chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) can potentially support cancer imaging with metabolically derived information. Multiparametric prostate MRI has improved diagnosis but may benefit from additional information to reduce the need for biopsies. PURPOSE: To optimize an acquisition and postprocessing protocol for 3.0 T multipool CEST analysis of prostate data and evaluate the repeatability of the technique. STUDY TYPE: Prospective. SUBJECTS: Five healthy volunteers (age range: 24-47 years; median age: 28 years) underwent two sessions (interval range: 7-27 days; median interval: 20 days) and two biopsy-proven prostate cancer patients were evaluated once. Patient 1 (71 years) had a Gleason 3 + 4 transition zone (TZ) tumor and patient 2 (55 years) had a Gleason 4 + 3 peripheral zone (PZ) tumor. FIELD STRENGTH: 3.0 T. Sequences run: T2 -weighted turbo-spin-echo (TSE); diffusion-weighted imaging; CEST; WASABI (for B0 determination). ASSESSMENT: Saturation, readout, and fit-model parameters were optimized to maximize in vivo amide and nuclear Overhauser effect (NOE) signals. Repeatability (intrasession and intersession) was evaluated in healthy volunteers. Subsequently, preliminary evaluation of signal differences was made in patients. Regions of interest were drawn by two post-FRCR board-certified readers, both with over 5 years of experience in multiparametric prostate MRI. STATISTICAL TESTS: Repeatability was assessed using Bland-Altman analysis, coefficient of variation (CV), and 95% limits of agreement (LOA). Statistical significance of CEST contrast was calculated using a nonparametric Mann-Whitney U-test. RESULTS: The optimized saturation scheme was found to be 60 sinc-Gaussian pulses with 40 msec pulse duration, at 50% duty-cycle with continuous-wave pulse equivalent B1 power (B1CWPE ) of 0.92 μT. The magnetization transfer (MT) contribution to the fit-model was centered at -1.27 ppm. Intersession coefficients of variation (CVs) of the amide, NOE, and magnetization transfer (MT) and asymmetric magnetization transfer ratio (MTRasym ) signals of 25%, 23%, 18%, and 200%, respectively, were observed. Fit-metric and MTRasym CVs agreed between readers to within 4 and 10 percentage points, respectively. DATA CONCLUSION: Signal differences of 0.03-0.10 (17-43%) detectable depending upon pool, with MT the most repeatable (signal difference of 17-22% detectable). LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2 Technical Efficacy: Stage 2 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2019

National implementation of multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging for prostate cancer detection - recommendations from a UK consensus meeting.

OBJECTIVES: To identify areas of agreement and disagreement in the implementation of multi-parametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) of the prostate in the diagnostic pathway. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifteen UK experts in prostate mpMRI and/or prostate cancer management across the UK (involving nine NHS centres to provide for geographical spread) participated in a consensus meeting following the Research and Development Corporation and University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA-RAND) Appropriateness Method, and were moderated by an independent chair. The experts considered 354 items pertaining to who can request an mpMRI, prostate mpMRI protocol, reporting guidelines, training, quality assurance (QA) and patient management based on mpMRI levels of suspicion for cancer. Each item was rated for agreement on a 9-point scale. A panel median score of ≥7 constituted 'agreement' for an item; for an item to reach 'consensus', a panel majority scoring was required. RESULTS: Consensus was reached on 59% of items (208/354); these were used to provide recommendations for the implementation of prostate mpMRI in the UK. Key findings include prostate mpMRI requests should be made in consultation with the urological team; mpMRI scanners should undergo QA checks to guarantee consistently high diagnostic quality scans; scans should only be reported by trained and experienced radiologists to ensure that men with unsuspicious prostate mpMRI might consider avoiding an immediate biopsy. CONCLUSIONS: Our consensus statements demonstrate a set of criteria that are required for the practical dissemination of consistently high-quality prostate mpMRI as a diagnostic test before biopsy in men at risk

Evaluation of PSA and PSA Density in a Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Directed Diagnostic Pathway for Suspected Prostate Cancer: The INNOVATE Trial

OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical outcomes of mpMRI before biopsy and evaluate the space remaining for novel biomarkers. METHODS: The INNOVATE study was set up to evaluate the validity of novel fluidic biomarkers in men with suspected prostate cancer who undergo pre-biopsy mpMRI. We report the characteristics of this clinical cohort, the distribution of clinical serum biomarkers, PSA and PSA density (PSAD), and compare the mpMRI Likert scoring system to the Prostate Imaging–Reporting and Data System v2.1 (PI-RADS) in men undergoing biopsy. RESULTS: 340 men underwent mpMRI to evaluate suspected prostate cancer. 193/340 (57%) men had subsequent MRI-targeted prostate biopsy. Clinically significant prostate cancer (csigPCa), i.e., overall Gleason ≥ 3 + 4 of any length OR maximum cancer core length (MCCL) ≥4 mm of any grade including any 3 + 3, was found in 96/195 (49%) of biopsied patients. Median PSA (and PSAD) was 4.7 (0.20), 8.0 (0.17), and 9.7 (0.31) ng/mL (ng/mL/mL) in mpMRI scored Likert 3,4,5 respectively for men with csigPCa on biopsy. The space for novel biomarkers was shown to be within the group of men with mpMRI scored Likert3 (178/340) and 4 (70/350), in whom an additional of 40% (70/178) men with mpMRI-scored Likert3, and 37% (26/70) Likert4 could have been spared biopsy. PSAD is already considered clinically in this cohort to risk stratify patients for biopsy, despite this 67% (55/82) of men with mpMRI-scored Likert3, and 55% (36/65) Likert4, who underwent prostate biopsy had a PSAD below a clinical threshold of 0.15 (or 0.12 for men aged <50 years). Different thresholds of PSA and PSAD were assessed in mpMRI-scored Likert4 to predict csigPCa on biopsy, to achieve false negative levels of ≤5% the proportion of patients whom who test as above the threshold were unsuitably high at 86 and 92% of patients for PSAD and PSA respectively. When PSA was re tested in a sub cohort of men repeated PSAD showed its poor reproducibility with 43% (41/95) of patients being reclassified. After PI-RADS rescoring of the biopsied lesions, 66% (54/82) of the Likert3 lesions received a different PI-RADS score. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of simple biochemical and radiological markers (Likert and PSAD) facilitate the streamlining of the mpMRI-diagnostic pathway for suspected prostate cancer but there remains scope for improvement, in the introduction of novel biomarkers for risk assessment in Likert3 and 4 patients, future application of novel biomarkers tested in a Likert cohort would also require re-optimization around Likert3/PI-RADS2, as well as reproducibility testing

Added value of diffusion-weighted images and dynamic contrast enhancement in multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging for the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer in the PICTURE trial

Objective To determine the additional diagnostic value of diffusion‐weighted imaging (DWI) and dynamic contrast‐enhanced (DCE) imaging in men requiring a repeat biopsy within the PICTURE study. Patients and Methods PICTURE was a paired‐cohort confirmatory study in which 249 men who required further risk stratification following a previous non‐MRI guided TRUS biopsy underwent a 3‐Tesla mpMRI consisting of T2W, DWI and DCE followed by transperineal template prostate mapping (TPM) biopsy. Each mpMRI was reported using a LIKERT score in a sequential blinded manner to generate scores for T2W, T2W+DWI and T2W+DWI+DCE. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) fanalysis was performed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of each combination. The threshold for a positive mpMRI was set as a LIKERT score >/=3. Clinically significant prostate cancer was analysed across a range of definitions including UCL/Ahmed Definition 1 (primary definition), UCL/Ahmed Definition 2, any Gleason >/=3+4 and any Gleason >/=4+3. Results Of 249, sequential MRI reporting was available for 246. There was a higher rate of equivocal lesions (44.6%) using T2W alone compared to the addition of DWI (23.9%) and DCE (19.8%). Using the primary definition of clinically significant disease, there was no significant difference in the overall accuracy between T2W at AUROC 0.74 (95% CI 0.68‐0.80), T2W+DWI at 0.76 (95% CI 0.71‐0.82) and T2W+DWI+DCE at 0.77 (95% CI 0.71‐0.82) (p=0.55). The AUROCs remained comparable using other definitions of clinically significant disease including UCL/Ahmed 2 (p=0.79), Gleason >/=3+4 (p=0.53) and Gleason >/=4+3 (p=0.53). Conclusions Using a 3T MRI, a high level of diagnostic accuracy can be achieved using T2W as a single parameter in men with a prior biopsy. However, such a strategy can lead to a higher rate of equivocal lesions