Might economists be partly to blame for Trump and moves towards a ‘full British Brexit’?

The reasons for the Trump phenomenon and Brexit vote are many and various, but have we overlooked ways in which standard economics, by failing to take seriously the radical uncertainty endemic in modern political economies, has contributed to the populist turn? Richard Bronk argues that by mischaracterising their profession as able to make precise forecasts of uncertain futures – an impossible task – economists contributed to the current denigration of experts. More importantly, by assuming that people form rational expectations, they encouraged us to ignore the transformative power of simple narratives

Renormalization of radiobiological response functions by energy loss fluctuations and complexities in chromosome aberration induction: deactivation theory for proton therapy from cells to tumor control

We employ a multi-scale mechanistic approach to investigate radiation induced cell toxicities and deactivation mechanisms as a function of linear energy transfer in hadron therapy. Our theoretical model consists of a system of Markov chains in microscopic and macroscopic spatio-temporal landscapes, i.e., stochastic birth-death processes of cells in millimeter-scale colonies that incorporates a coarse-grained driving force to account for microscopic radiation induced damage. The coupling, hence the driving force in this process, stems from a nano-meter scale radiation induced DNA damage that incorporates the enzymatic end-joining repair and mis-repair mechanisms. We use this model for global fitting of the high-throughput and high accuracy clonogenic cell-survival data acquired under exposure of the therapeutic scanned proton beams, the experimental design that considers $\gamma$-H2AX as the biological endpoint and exhibits maximum observed achievable dose and LET, beyond which the majority of the cells undergo collective biological deactivation processes. An estimate to optimal dose and LET calculated from tumor control probability by extension to $~ 10^6$ cells per $mm$-size voxels is presented. We attribute the increase in degree of complexity in chromosome aberration to variabilities in the observed biological responses as the beam linear energy transfer (LET) increases, and verify consistency of the predicted cell death probability with the in-vitro cell survival assay of approximately 100 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells

Bayesian evaluation of the southern hemisphere radiocarbon offset during the holocene

While an interhemispheric offset in atmospheric radiocarbon levels from AD 1950–950 is now well established, its existence earlier in the Holocene is less clear, with some studies reporting globally uniform 14C levels while others finding Southern Hemisphere samples older by a few decades. In this paper, we present a method for wiggle-matching Southern Hemisphere data sets against Northern Hemisphere curves, using the Bayesian calibration program OxCal 4.1 with the Reservoir Offset function accommodating a potential interhemispheric offset. The accuracy and robustness of this approach is confirmed by wiggle-matching known-calendar age sequences of the Southern Hemisphere calibration curve SHCal04 against the Northern Hemisphere curve IntCal04. We also show that 5 of 9 Holocene Southern Hemisphere data sets are capable of yielding reliable offset information. Those data sets that are accurate and precise show that interhemispheric offset levels in the Early Holocene are similar to modern levels, confirming SHCal04 as the curve of choice for calibrating Southern Hemisphere samples

Revised calendar date for the Taupo eruption derived by ¹⁴C wiggle-matching using a New Zealand kauri ¹⁴C calibration data set

Taupo volcano in central North Island, New Zealand, is the most frequently active and productive rhyolite volcano on Earth. Its latest explosive activity about 1800 years ago generated the spectacular Taupo eruption, the most violent eruption known in the world in the last 5000 years. We present here a new accurate and precise eruption date of AD 232 ± 5 (1718 ± 5 cal. BP) for the Taupo event. This date was derived by wiggle-matching 25 high-precision ¹⁴C dates from decadal samples of Phyllocladus trichomanoides from the Pureora buried forest near Lake Taupo against the high-precision, first-millennium AD subfossil Agathis australis (kauri) calibration data set constructed by the Waikato Radiocarbon Laboratory. It shows that postulated dates for the eruption estimated previously from Greenland ice-core records (AD 181 ± 2) and putative historical records of unusual atmospheric phenomena in ancient Rome and China (c. AD 186) are both untenable. However, although their conclusion of a zero north–south ¹⁴C offset is erroneous, and their data exhibit a laboratory bias of about 38 years (too young), Sparks et al. (Sparks RJ, Melhuish WH, McKee JWA, Ogden J, Palmer JG and Molloy BPJ (1995) ¹⁴C calibration in the Southern Hemisphere and the date of the last Taupo eruption: Evidence from tree-ring sequences. Radiocarbon 37: 155–163) correctly utilized the Northern Hemisphere calibration curve of Stuiver and Becker (Stuiver M and Becker B (1993) High-precision decadal calibration of the radiocarbon timescale, AD 1950–6000 BC. Radiocarbon 35: 35–65) to obtain an accurate wiggle-match date for the eruption identical to ours but less precise (AD 232 ± 15). Our results demonstrate that high-agreement levels, indicated by either agreement indices or χ² data, obtained from a ¹⁴C wiggle-match do not necessarily mean that age models are accurate. We also show that laboratory bias, if suspected, can be mitigated by applying the reservoir offset function with an appropriate error value (e.g. 0 ± 40 years). Ages for eruptives such as Taupo tephra that are based upon individual ¹⁴C dates should be considered as approximate only, and confined ideally to short-lived material (e.g. seeds, leaves, small branches or the outer rings of larger trees)

Uncertainty and the dangers of monocultures in regulation, analysis, and practice

Uncertainty is endemic to innovative economies and complex societies, but policymakers underestimate how damaging this is for many of their guiding assumptions. In particular, the discourse of best practice, “global solutions for global problems,” and regulatory harmonization becomes questionable when there is substantial uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty makes it impossible to know what best practice will be and increases the danger that harmonization will result in highly correlated errors and shared analytical blind spots. The transnational harmonization of regulation has well-known advantages, but – especially in technocratic policy areas – also creates vulnerability to unexpected challenges by constraining how we think as well as homogenizing how we act. Faced with uncertainty, policymakers should be wary of monocultures in regulation, analysis, and practice, and instead focus on managing policy diversity to limit its costs. This paper’s theoretical argument is grounded in philosophy, the history of ideas, and even biology. However, we also present empirical examples and consider some implications for political theory

Letter to MPs from a Remain voter: a plea for realism, tolerance and honesty

This is the text of a letter written by Richard Bronk, a Visiting Fellow at the European Institute of the London School of Economics, to two Conservative MPs, one a friend, with whom he was in correspondence. The letter (which has been anonymised) was written to foster a better understanding of how many of the 48% who voted Remain are thinking and feeling following the vote – and thereby contribute to efforts to bridge the dangerous chasm opening up between most of the UK’s great cities, universities and the young, on the one hand, and the new Brexit government on the other

Let young people move: why any post-Brexit migration deal must safeguard youth mobility

Restrictions on free movement are likely to be an important aspect of the UK’s new relationship with EU countries post-Brexit. Richard Bronk argues that safeguarding youth mobility should be a major principle behind any immigration reforms. He explores the economic, political and social case for preserving it, before suggesting some ways to do so – based in part on existing provisions for youth mobility with certain Commonwealth and other non-EU allies

Radiocarbon dates from the Oxford AMS system: archaeometry datelist 35

This is the 35th list of AMS radiocarbon determinations measured at the Oxford Radiocarbon Accelerator Unit (ORAU). Amongst some of the sites included here are the latest series of determinations from the key sites of Abydos, El Mirón, Ban Chiang, Grotte de Pigeons (Taforalt), Alepotrypa and Oberkassel, as well as others dating to the Palaeolithic, Mesolithic and later periods. Comments on the significance of the results are provided by the submitters of the material

Fluctuations of the Shannon capacity in a Raleigh model of wireless communication

Using the fact that the Shannon capacity C of a Raleigh model of wireless channels is a linear statistic of the channel matrix, we calculate its variance var[C]. We find that the expected value of the Shannon capacity is typical in the model considered, that is the coefficient of variation (var[C])^(1/2)/ is small.Comment: 3 pages, 2 figure