A Bootstrap Estimate of the Predictive Distribution of Outstanding Claims for the Schnieper Model

This paper considers the bootstrapping approach for measuring reserve uncertainty when applying the model of Schnieper for reserves which separate Incurred But Not Reported (IBNR) and Incurred But Not Enough Reserved (IBNER) claims. The Schnieper method has been explored in Liu and Verrall (2009), and the Mean Square Errors of Prediction (MSEP) derived. This paper takes this further by deriving the full predictive distribution, using bootstrapping. Numerical examples are provided and the MSEP from the bootstrapping approach are compared with those obtained analytically

Medizinisches Callcenter im Nachtdienst, Teil 2: Die Wirkung auf die Befindlichkeit

Die Nächte stellen wohl die grösste Belastung der Ärzte2 im Notfalldienst dar, vor allem, nachdem wegen Überalterung Notfallkreise zusammengelegt werden mussten und damit der Druck auf den einzelnen Dienstarzt zugenommen hat. Die Dienstkreise Frauenfeld und Arbon–Romanshorn mit 30450 bzw. 37217 Einwohnern untersuchten, ob eine nächtliche Vortriagierung (22 bis 8 Uhr) der Anrufe durch ein medizinisches Callcenter die Dienstärzte entlasten könnte. Die Phase ohne Callcenter dauerte vom 1. 2. bis am 31. 5., jene mit vom 1. 6. bis 30. 9. 2007. 37 von 39 Ärzten nahmen an der Studie teil. Der Rücklauf der Fragebogen betrug 85 bis 92%. Die Ärzte äusserten eine verbesserte Schlaf- und Lebensqualität im Zusammenhang mit dem Notfalldienst und befürworteten den Callcentereinsatz tendenziell. Eine Beteiligung an den Kosten für das Callcenter lehnten sie jedoch allesamt ab. Die Anrufenden gaben sowohl den Dienstärzten als auch den Gesundheitsberatern des Callcenters gute Noten, beanstandeten aber den Tarif unserer 0900-Service-Nummern (CHF 1.93/min). Unsere Studie zeigt, dass eine Vortriagierung nächtlicher Anrufe im Notfalldienst von Patienten und Dienstärzten akzeptiert werden könnte

The Mean Square Error of Prediction in the Chain Ladder Reserving Method (Mack and Murphy Revisited)

We revisit the famous Mack formula [2], which gives an estimate for the mean square error of prediction MSEP of the chain ladder claims reserving method: We define a time series model for the chain ladder method. In this time series framework we give an approach for the estimation of the conditional MSEP. It turns out that our approach leads to results that differ from the Mack formula. But we also see that our derivation leads to the same formulas for the MSEP estimate as the ones given in Murphy [4]. We discuss the differences and similarities of these derivation

Severe transient neonatal lactic acidosis during prophylactic zidovudine treatment

Zidovudine (ZDV) treatment during pregnancy, delivery and the postnatal period is effective in reducing the maternal-infant transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus. Reported adverse effects in the neonate during this long-term treatment are bone marrow suppression and elevation in aspartate aminotransferase activity. We report a case of severe ZDV-associated lactic acidosis in a neonate, which resolved rapidly following discontinuation of ZDV. The mechanisms leading to this side effect are poorly understoo

2021: Dr. Mary Buchwalder, M.D.

During Women’s History Month, the Women’s Center coordinates, as an experiential learning opportunity for students, an annual exhibit highlighting the contributions women have made at the University of Dayton. The 2021 theme, Leading with Character and Resilience, captures what it means to work in the midst of a pandemic, social and political unrest and economic uncertainty. Each honoree displayed resilience, drive, character and tenacity and created inspiring ways to move forward.https://ecommons.udayton.edu/women_of_ud/1046/thumbnail.jp

Investigations on the Microstructure of an Aluminium Nitride Layer and Its Interface with the Aluminium Substrate (Part I)

In principle, the plasma nitriding of Al based substrates is a well-known process, though it remains extremely challenging from both the technological point of view and the aspect of stress loading conditions. In order to improve the latter, a duplex treatment consisting of plasma nitriding and subsequent surface remelting using electron beam technology was employed. The focus of this paper (part I) was on the characterisation of the initial microstructure after plasma nitriding. This should create the basis for a better understanding of the processes taking place or changes in the subsequent duplex treatment. This was done with the help of high-resolution imaging and analysis tools in the scanning and transmission electron microscope as well as XPS analyses. Special attention was paid to the nitriding mechanism at the interface as a function of the local microstructural constituents of the hypereutectic Al alloy substrate (Al solid solution, primary silicon, and intermetallic phases). While the main part of the nitride layer formed consisted of AlN and small fractions of pure Al in the diffusion paths, other nitrides and oxides could also be detected in the area of the interface

Parylene-AlOx Stacks for Improved 3D Encapsulation Solutions

The demand for ultra-tight encapsulation solutions with excellent barrier and high conformality properties has increased in recent years. To meet these challenges, thin-film barrier coatings have emerged as a promising solution. In this study, we investigate well-established silicon-based plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD) and metal oxide atomic layer deposition (ALD) barrier coatings deposited at low temperatures (≤100 °C) regarding their abilities to address high-level 3D encapsulation applications. Various combinations of such layers are evaluated by measuring the water vapor transmission rate (WVTR) and considering the conformality properties. The impact and the benefits of the organic film integration, namely parylene VT4 grade, on the barrier performances is assessed. Among these combinations, parylene-AlOx stack emerges as one of the most effective solutions, obtaining a WVTR of 3.1 × 10^−4 g m^−2 day^−1 at 38°C and 90% relative humidity conditions

Development of a Water Transmission Rate (WTR) Measurement System for Implantable Barrier Coatings.

While water vapor transmission rate (WVTR) measurement is standardly used to assess material permeability, a system able to quantify liquid water transmission rate (WTR) measurement is highly desirable for implantable thin film barrier coatings. Indeed, since implantable devices are in contact or immersed in body fluids, liquid WTR was carried out to obtain a more realistic measurement of the barrier performance. Parylene is a well-established polymer which is often the material of choice for biomedical encapsulation applications due to its flexibility, biocompatibility, and attractive barrier properties. Four grades of parylene coatings were tested with a newly developed permeation measurement system based on a quadrupole mass spectrometer (QMS) detection method. Successful measurements of gas and water vapor and the water transmission rates of thin parylene films were performed and validated, comparing the results with a standardized method. In addition, the WTR results allowed for the extraction of an acceleration transmission rate factor from the vapor-to-liquid water measurement mode, which varies from 4 to 4.8 between WVTR and WTR. With a WTR of 72.5 µm g m-2 day-1, parylene C displayed the most effective barrier performance