Some Remarks on the Use of Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches in the Evaluation of Rock Slope Stability

The rock slope stability assessment can be performed by means of deterministic and probabilistic approaches. As the deterministic analysis needs only representative values (generally, the mean value) for each physical and geo-mechanical parameter involved, it does not take into account the variability and uncertainty of geo-structural and geo-mechanical properties of joints. This analysis can be usually carried out using dierent methods, such as the Limit Equilibrium method or numerical modeling techniques sometimes implemented in graphical tests to identify dierent failure mechanisms (kinematic approach). Probabilistic methods (kinetic approach) aimed to calculate the slope failure probability, consider all orientations, physical characters and shear strength of joints and not only those recognized as kinematically possible. Consequently, the failure probability can be overestimated. It is, therefore, considered more realistic to perform both kinematic and kinetic analyses and to calculate a conditional probability given by the product of the kinematic and kinetic probabilities assuming that they are statistically independent variables. These approaches have been tested on two rock slopes in the Campanian region of Southern Italy aected by possible plane and wedge failures, respectively. Kinematic and kinetic probabilities have been evaluated both by means of the Markland’s test and the Monte Carlo simulation. Using the Eurocode 7, also a deterministic limit equilibrium analysis was performed. The obtained results were compared and commented on

Assessment of rockfall risk along roads

International audienceThis paper contains a method for the analysis of rockfall risk along roads and motorways. The method is derived from the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) developed by Pierson et al. (1990) at the Oregon State Highway Division. The RHRS provides a rational way to make informed decisions on where and how to spend construction funds. Exponential scoring functions are used to represent the increases, respectively, in hazard and in vulnerability that are reflected in the nine categories forming the classification. The resulting total score contains the essential elements regarding the evaluation of the degree of the exposition to the risk along roads. In the modified method, the ratings for the categories "ditch effectiveness", "geologic characteristic", "volume of rockfall/block size", "climate and water circulation" and "rockfall history" have been rendered more easy and objective. The main modifications regard the introduction of Slope Mass Rating by Romana (1985, 1988, 1991) improving the estimate of the geologic characteristics, of the volume of the potentially unstable blocks and the underground water circulation. Other modifications regard the scoring for the categories "decision sight distance" and "road geometry". For these categories, the Italian National Council's standards (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - CNR) have been used (CNR, 1980). The method must be applied in both the traffic directions because the percentage of reduction in the decision sight distance greatly affects the results. An application of the modified method to a 2km long section of the Sorrentine road (no 145) in Southern Italy was developed. A high traffic intensity affects the entire section of the road and rockfalls periodically cause casualties, as well as a large amount of damage and traffic interruptions. The method was applied to seven cross sections of slopes adjacent to the Sorrentine road. For these slopes, the analysis shows that the risk is unacceptable and it should be reduced using urgent remedial works

Loss of life risk due to impacts of boulders on vehicles traveling along a very busy road.

The paper is aimed to describe the used approach for calculating the risk along a road stretch belonging to a very busy coastal road in Southern Italy. During the time span 1969-2013, 22 rockfalls affecting this road were inventoried. On 18th February 2014 a new rockfall happened and several boulders reached the northern lane of the road. On the basis of collected data concerning the landslide hazard and road vulnerability, a procedure for the probability evaluation of a fatal accident - for a road user - is presented, discussed in details and compared. The analysis is meant to allow the design of appropriate protection devices along the cliffs overhanging the road

Comparison between qualitative rockfall risk rating systems for a road affected by high traffic intensity

Abstract. The paper deals with the assessment of the rockfall risk for a road stretch, in southern Italy, affected by high traffic intensity. Three qualitative rockfall risk rating systems (QRSs) which use an exponential scoring with a base of 3 were employed, and then the results were compared. The used methods are the following: the Rockfall Hazard Rating System, a modified version of this method already proposed in the past by one of the authors, and the modified version of the Colorado Rockfall Hazard Rating System. The studied road stretch is about 11 km in length and is part of a very tortuous road flanked by rock slopes characterised by complex geostructural and geomechanical layouts. The road was subdivided into 56 sections, defined so as to have – as much as possible – homogeneous geological characteristics. By means of the three QRSs, it was possible to ascertain that high levels of rockfall risks are due to the lack of ditches, a very limited percentage of decision sight distance (PDSD) values and a small roadway width, whereas a subordinate factor is the hazard caused by rockfalls. Several positive and negative aspects arising from the use of the employed methods are highlighted and discussed.</p