Heat balance of the Earth

Results of improved calculations of the heat balance components of Earth's surface are reported for yearly average conditions. The technique used to determine the heat-balance components from land- and sea-based actinometric observations as well as from satellite data on the radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is described, with special attention given to short-wavelength solar radiation on the continents, effective radiation from the land surface, the radiation balance of the ocean surface, heat expended by both evaporation from the ocean surface, and turbulent heat transfer between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. World maps of heat-balance components show yearly average values of total radiation, radiation balance, heat expended by evaporation, the turbulent heat flow between Earth's surface and atmosphere, and heat transfer between the ocean surface and underlying waters. The global surface heat balance is estimated along with global values of the various components and the heat-balance components for different latitude zones

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Societ

The stochastic resonance mechanism in the Aerosol Index dynamics

We consider Aerosol Index (AI) time-series extracted from TOMS archive for an area covering Italy $(7-18^o E ; 36-47^o N)$. The missing of convergence in estimating the embedding dimension of the system and the inability of the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) in separating the fluctuations from deterministic component of the signals are evidences of an intrinsic link between the periodic behavior of AI and its fluctuations. We prove that these time series are well described by a stochastic dynamical model. Moreover, the principal peak in the power spectrum of these signals can be explained whereby a stochastic resonance, linking variable external factors, such as Sun-Earth radiation budget and local insolation, and fluctuations on smaller spatial and temporal scale due to internal weather and antrophic components

Daisyworld: a review

Daisyworld is a simple planetary model designed to show the long-term effects of coupling between life and its environment. Its original form was introduced by James Lovelock as a defense against criticism that his Gaia theory of the Earth as a self-regulating homeostatic system requires teleological control rather than being an emergent property. The central premise, that living organisms can have major effects on the climate system, is no longer controversial. The Daisyworld model has attracted considerable interest from the scientific community and has now established itself as a model independent of, but still related to, the Gaia theory. Used widely as both a teaching tool and as a basis for more complex studies of feedback systems, it has also become an important paradigm for the understanding of the role of biotic components when modeling the Earth system. This paper collects the accumulated knowledge from the study of Daisyworld and provides the reader with a concise account of its important properties. We emphasize the increasing amount of exact analytic work on Daisyworld and are able to bring together and summarize these results from different systems for the first time. We conclude by suggesting what a more general model of life-environment interaction should be based on

The increasing importance of atmospheric demand for ecosystem water and carbon fluxes

Soil moisture supply and atmospheric demand for water independently limit—and profoundly affect—vegetation productivity and water use during periods of hydrologic stress1, 2, 3, 4. Disentangling the impact of these two drivers on ecosystem carbon and water cycling is difficult because they are often correlated, and experimental tools for manipulating atmospheric demand in the field are lacking. Consequently, the role of atmospheric demand is often not adequately factored into experiments or represented in models5, 6, 7. Here we show that atmospheric demand limits surface conductance and evapotranspiration to a greater extent than soil moisture in many biomes, including mesic forests that are of particular importance to the terrestrial carbon sink8, 9. Further, using projections from ten general circulation models, we show that climate change will increase the importance of atmospheric constraints to carbon and water fluxes in all ecosystems. Consequently, atmospheric demand will become increasingly important for vegetation function, accounting for >70% of growing season limitation to surface conductance in mesic temperate forests. Our results suggest that failure to consider the limiting role of atmospheric demand in experimental designs, simulation models and land management strategies will lead to incorrect projections of ecosystem responses to future climate conditions

Phanerozoic evolution of atmospheric methane

A simple geochemical box model for the global cycle of methane (CH4) has been developed and applied to reconstruct the evolution of atmospheric CH4 over the entire Phanerozoic. According to the model, the partial pressure of atmospheric CH4 (pCH4) increased up to approximately 10 ppmv during the Carboniferous coal swamp era. This implies a maximum radiative forcing of about 3.5 W m−2 via CH4. Through its radiative forcing, CH4 heated the average global surface temperature by up to 1°C. The elevated pCH4 values during the Permian-Carboniferous cold period may have moderated the temperature decline caused by the coeval drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Additional runs with a global carbon model indicate that the heating induced by elevated pCH4 favored the drawdown of atmospheric pCO2 via enhanced rates of silicate weathering. Simulations with a state-of-the-art climate model reveal that the effects of atmospheric CH4 on average global surface temperature also depend on the partial pressures of CO2. The CH4 climate effect is amplified by high background levels of atmospheric CO2 such that a coeval increase in the partial pressure of both greenhouse gases has a much stronger climate effect than previously anticipated

The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates

The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation model has undergone significant development in recent years. Most notable is the treatment of horizontal discretisation which has undergone transition from a staggered E-grid to an orthogonal curvilinear C-grid. The treatment of subgridscale mixing has been improved by the inclusion of a new formulation of bottom boundary layer (BBL) slope convection, an isopycnal diffusion scheme, and a Gent and McWilliams style eddy-induced mixing parameterisation. The model setup described here has a north pole over Greenland and a south pole on the coast of the Weddell Sea. This gives relatively high resolution in the sinking regions associated with the thermohaline circulation. Results are presented from a 450 year climatologically forced integration. The forcing is a product of the German Ocean Model Intercomparison Project and is derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis. The main emphasis is on the model's representation of key quantities that are easily associated with the ocean's role in the global climate system. The global and Atlantic northward poleward heat transports have peaks of 1.43 and 0.84 PW, at 18degrees and 21degrees N respectively. The Atlantic meridional overturning streamfunction has a peak of 15.7 Sv in the North Atlantic and an outflow of 11.9 Sv at 30degrees S. Comparison with a simulation excluding BBL shows that the scheme is responsible for up to a 25% increase in North Atlantic heat transport, with significant improvement of the depths of convection in the Greenland, Labrador and Irminger Seas. Despite the improvements, comparison with observations shows the heat transport still to be too weak. Other outstanding problems include an incorrect Gulf Stream pathway, a too strong Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a too weak renewal of Antarctic Intermediate Water. Nevertheless, the model has been coupled to the atmospheric GCM ECHAM5 and run successfully for over 250 years without any surface flux corrections. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Habitability and multistablility in earth-like plantets

We explore the potential multistability of the climate for a planet around the habitable zone. We focus on conditions reminiscent to those of the Earth system, but our investigation aims at presenting a general methodology for dealing with exoplanets. We provide a thorough analysis of the non-equilibrium thermodynamical properties of the climate system and explore, using a a flexible climate model, how such properties depend on the energy input of the parent star, on the infrared atmospheric opacity, and on the rotation rate. It is possible to reproduce the multi-stability properties reminiscent of the paleoclimatologically relevant snowball (SB) - warm (W) conditions. We then study the thermodynamics of the W and SB states, clarifying the role of the hydrological cycle in shaping the irreversibility and the efficiency of the W states, and emphasizing the extreme diversity of the SB states, where dry conditions are realized. Thermodynamics provides the clue for studying the tipping points of the system and leads us to constructing parametrizations where the main thermodynamic properties are expressed as functions of the emission temperature of the planet only. Such functions are rather robust with respect to changing the rotation rate of the planet from the current terrestrial one to half of it. We then explore the dynamical range of slowy rotating and phase locked planets. There is a critical rotation rate below which the multi-stability properties are lost. Such critical rotation rate corresponds roughly to the phase lock 2:1 condition. Therefore, if an Earth-like planet is 1:1 phase locked with respect to the parent star, only one climatic state would be compatible with a given set of astronomical and astrophysical parameters. These results have relevance for the general theory of planetary circulation and for the definition of necessary and sufficient conditions for habitability

Assessing the controllability of Arctic sea ice extent by sulfate aerosol geoengineering

In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series data exploited through an annual review cycle, uncertainties in observations and forcings were successfully managed

Triggering global climate transitions through volcanic eruptions

A coupled climate model with idealized representations of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land is used to investigate transitions between global climate equilibria. The model supports the presence of climates with limited ice cover (Warm), a continuum of climates in which sea ice extends down into the midlatitudes and the tropics (Cold), together with a completely ice-covered earth (Snowball). Transitions between these states are triggered through volcanic eruptions, where the radiative effect of stratospheric sulfur emissions is idealized as a 1-yr impulse reduction in incoming solar radiation. Snowball transitions starting from the Cold state are more favorable than from the Warm state, because less energy must be extracted from the system. However, even when starting from a Cold climate, Toba-like volcanic events (cooling of order 2100 W m22) must be sustained continuously for several decades to glaciate the entire planet. When the deep ocean is involved, the volcanic response is characterized by relaxation time scales spanning hundreds to thousands of years. If the interval between successive eruptions is significantly shorter (years to decades) than the ocean’s characteristic time scales, the cumulative cooling can build over time and initiate a state transition. The model exhibits a single hysteresis loop that connects all three climate equilibria. When starting from a Snowball, the model cannot access the Cold branch without first transitioning to an ice-free climate and completing the hysteresis loop. By contrast, a Cold state, when warmed, transitions to the Warm equilibrium without any hysteresis