Dealing with a liquidity trap when government debt matters: optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy

How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent stabilization policies. We focus on two policy tools, the short-term nominal interest rate and debt-financed government spending. The optimal policy response to a liquidity trap critically depends on the prevailing debt burden. While the optimal amount of government spending is decreasing in the level of outstanding government debt, future monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, triggering a change in private sector expectations that helps to dampen the fall in output and inflation at the outset of the liquidity trap

Forecasting world trade: direct versus “bottom-up” approaches

In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade flows at the expense of country-specific determinants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate levels, relative to "bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-specific forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade flows. JEL Classification: C53, C32, E37, F17Factor models, forecasts, Time series models, World trade

Ventures in Social Media

Academic libraries are actively involved in social media platforms as part of their campus communities. They have moved past the debate of whether to participate in social media and are focusing on strategies to develop engaging content and assessment of their efforts. Social media use in the campus classroom continues to grow with more faculty using social media in academic context. Given the widespread adoption of social media on the University of San Diego campus Copley Library formed a Social Media Committee (SMC) to manage the library’s social media presence with a mission to promoting the library’s services and events. After establishing Facebook and Twitter accounts the committee looked to expand their presence on other platforms. To determine which social media platforms undergraduates were using, the committee designed and administered a survey in the fall of 2013. The survey confirmed that USD undergraduates were still using Facebook and showed 56% now use multiple social media sites: Twitter, Pinterest, Tumblr, and Instagram. The SMC diversified onto Instagram and Pinterest platforms to interact with students on visual platforms.Ye

The Impact of German Job Protection Legislation on Job Creation in Small Establishments - An Application of the Regression Discontinuity Design

One proposal frequently raised to increase flexibility of the German labour market is the liberalization of the job protection law. It applies to those establishments with more than a cut-off number of employees. The argument examined in this paper is that this step in legal regulation hinders small enterprises from job creation. Changes in the cut-off number in the late 1990‘s provide the basis for estimating this effect. The evaluation approach is a Regression Discontinuity Design using these changes as natural experiments. Local treatment effects can be estimated non-parametrically by local linear regression. The data base used is the IAB establishment panel. The paper is the first one to exploit the policy changes named above and controlling for self-selection into the treatment job protection using minimal assumptions concerning model specification. The results are in line with earlier studies finding no evidence for hindering effects on job growth in small establishments.employment protection, threshold effects, RDD, local linear regression, Germany

Timing and fragmentation of daily working hours arrangements and income inequality – An earnings treatment effects approach with German time use diary data

Traditional well-being analyses based on money income needs to be broadened by its time dimension. In the course of time the traditional full-time work is diminishing and new labour arrangements are discussed (keyword: flexible labour markets) with consequences on the daily work arrangements. Our study is contributing to the research on economic well-being and working hours arrangements by adding insights into particular daily work effort characteristics and its resulting income distribution. The work effort characteristics we regard is about labour market flexibility with focus on relations between the daily timing of work and its fragmentation, and its consequences on the income distribution. Whereas the first part of our study is describing the distribution of timing and fragmentation of daily work time and its resulting income based on more than 35.000 diaries of the most recent German Time Budget Survey 2001/2002, the second part of our study quantifies determinants of arrangement specific earnings functions detecting significant explanatory patterns of what is behind. The related economic theory is a human capital approach in a market and non-market context, extended by non-market time use, the partner’s working condition, social networking as well as household and regional characteristics. The econometrics use a treatment effects type interdependent estimation of endogenous participation in a daily working hour pattern (self-selection) and pattern specific earnings function explanation. The overall result: Individual earnings in Germany are dependent on and significant different with regard to the daily working hours arrangement capturing timing and fragmentation of work. Market and non-market factors are important and significant in explaining participation and earnings thereof.Time use and inequality, timing and fragmentation of daily work time, daily working hours arrangements, earnings explanation, human capital, market and non-market time use, German Time Budget Survey 2001/2002, time use diary data, treatment effects modelling, selfselection with endogenous selection

Import Price Dynamics in Major Advanced Economies and Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Pass-Through

This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991–2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degrees of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from emerging economies is also significantly lower than for those from developed economies. Regarding the evolution over time, no clear change in pricing behaviours can be identified and particular events, like large exchange rates depreciations during the Asian crisis, seem to influence the degree of pass-through related to imports from emerging economies.Exchange rates; Inflation and prices

How to Make Friends and Influence Students

Presented at the California Academic & Research Libraries 2014 ConferenceGiven the widespread adoption of social media on the University of San Diego’s (USD) campus, Copley Library formed a Social Media Committee to manage the library’s social media presence with a mission to promote the library’s services and events. To determine which social media platforms undergraduates were using the committee designed and administered a survey in the fall of 2013. The survey confirmed that USD undergraduates were still using Facebook and showed 56% use multiple social media sites. The conference session discussed Copley Library’s implementation of four social networking platforms: Facebook, Instagram, Pinterest, and Twitter

Structural analysis of the adenovirus type 2 E3/19K protein using mutagenesis and a panel of conformation-sensitive monoclonal antibodies

The E3/19K protein of human adenovirus type 2 (Ad2) was the first viral protein shown to interfere with antigen presentation. This 25 kDa transmembrane glycoprotein binds to major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I molecules in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), thereby preventing transport of newly synthesized peptide–MHC complexes to the cell surface and consequently T cell recognition. Recent data suggest that E3/19K also sequesters MHC class I like ligands intracellularly to suppress natural killer (NK) cell recognition. While the mechanism of ER retention is well understood, the structure of E3/19K remains elusive. To further dissect the structural and antigenic topography of E3/19K we carried out site-directed mutagenesis and raised monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against a recombinant version of Ad2 E3/19K comprising the lumenal domain followed by a C-terminal histidine tag. Using peptide scanning, the epitopes of three mAbs were mapped to different regions of the lumenal domain, comprising amino acids 3–13, 15–21 and 41–45, respectively. Interestingly, mAb 3F4 reacted only weakly with wild-type E3/19K, but showed drastically increased binding to mutant E3/19K molecules, e.g. those with disrupted disulfide bonds, suggesting that 3F4 can sense unfolding of the protein. MAb 10A2 binds to an epitope apparently buried within E3/19K while that of 3A9 is exposed. Secondary structure prediction suggests that the lumenal domain contains six β-strands and an α-helix adjacent to the transmembrane domain. Interestingly, all mAbs bind to non-structured loops. Using a large panel of E3/19K mutants the structural alterations of the mutations were determined. With this knowledge the panel of mAbs will be valuable tools to further dissect structure/function relationships of E3/19K regarding down regulation of MHC class I and MHC class I like molecules and its effect on both T cell and NK cell recognition

Working Hour Arrangements and Working Hours A Microeconometric Analysis Based on German Time Diary Data

The labour market providing individual resources and economic well-being is still a topic in the economic and social policy discussion. In the course of time the traditional full-time work is diminishing, new labour arrangements are discussed (keyword: flexible labour markets). This study will contribute to the discussion of working hour arrangements by quantifying patterns of explanation of ‘who is working when within a workday’. In particular we want to disentangle certain working hour patterns and the final hours of work according to those different patterns allowing for market and non-market influences.The daily working hour patterns are analysed by two dimensions: the fragmentation of a working day (by the number of working episodes) and the timing of work time by location of those episodes within the day’s period. Deducting such patterns allows not only to describe possible workday interruptions and workday behaviour in general,but to give hints for which groups of the society non-traditional working time is important. Once quantified, labour market policy has a sound base for a targeted policy. Our model is based on a microeconomic labour supply approach, however extended by two dimensions: first,by daily working time arrangements with focus on core and non core working time crossed by number of episodes and, second, by labour supply factors in a market and non market context. Our microeconometric estimates use a multinomial logit (MNL) model to explain the working hour arrangement probability and a MNL selectivity bias corrected hours estimation for arrangement specific working hours with correct asymptotic covariances. Our study is the first German study of this kind which could analyse the actual available German Time Use Survey 1991/92 from the Federal Statistical Office with ca.32.000 time diaries.Working hour arrangements, timing of work time, working hours, German time budget stud, time use diary data, dicrete/continous extended labour supply modelling and MNL/COLS-estimation

Import price dynamics in major advanced economies and heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through

This paper aims at showing heterogeneity in the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in major advanced economies at three different levels: 1) across destination markets; 2) across types of exporters (distinguishing developed economy from emerging economy exporters); and 3) over time. Based on monthly data over the period 1991-2007, the results show first that large destination markets exhibit the lowest degree of pass-through. The degree of pass-through for goods imported from emerging economies is also significantly lower than for those from developed economies. Regarding the evolution over time, no clear change in pricing behaviours can be identified and particular events, like large exchange rates depreciations during the Asian crisis, seem to influence the degree of pass-through related to imports from emerging economies. JEL Classification: E31, F3, F41Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Import price modeling, Pricing to Market