Testing against stochastic trend and seasonality in the presence of unattended breaks and unit roots

This paper considers the problem of testing against stochastic trend and seasonality in the presence of structural breaks and unit roots at frequencies other than those directly under test, which we term unattended breaks and unattended unit roots respectively. We show that under unattended breaks the true size of the Kwiatkowski et. al. (1992) [KPSS] test at frequency zero and the Canova and Hansen (1995) [CH] test at the seasonal frequencies fall well below the nominal level under the null with an associated, often very dramatic, loss of power under the alternative. We demonstrate that a simple modification of the statistics can recover the usual limiting distribution appropriate to the case where there are no breaks, provided unit roots do not exist at any of the unattended frequencies. Where unattended unit roots occur we show that the above statistics converge in probability to zero under the null. However, computing the KPSS and CH statistics after pre-filtering the data is simultaneously efficacious against both unattended breaks and unattended unit roots, in the sense that the statistics retain their usual pivotal limiting null distributions appropriate to the case where neither occurs. The case where breaks may potentially occur at all frequencies is also discussed. The practical relevance of the theoretical contribution of the paper is illustrated through a number of empirical examples.stationarity tests, structural breaks, pre-filtering, unattended unit roots

Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameters factor analysis of euro-area inflation

We analyze the interaction among the common and country specific components for the inflation rates in twelve euro area countries through a factor model with time varying parameters. The variation of the model parameters is driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, so that, conditionally on past data, the model is Gaussian and the likelihood function can be evaluated using the Kalman filter. The empirical analysis uncovers significant variation over time in the model parameters. We find that, over an extended time period, inflation persistence has fallen over time and the importance of common shocks has increased relatively to the idiosyncratic disturbances. According to the model, the fall in inflation observed since the sovereign debt crisis, is broadly a common phenomenon, since no significant cross country inflation differentials have emerged. Stressed countries, however, have been hit by unusually large shocks

Osservazioni sul paradigma dei learning object

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Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

The 10 Meter South Pole Telescope

The South Pole Telescope (SPT) is a 10 m diameter, wide-field, offset Gregorian telescope with a 966-pixel, multi-color, millimeter-wave, bolometer camera. It is located at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole station in Antarctica. The design of the SPT emphasizes careful control of spillover and scattering, to minimize noise and false signals due to ground pickup. The key initial project is a large-area survey at wavelengths of 3, 2 and 1.3 mm, to detect clusters of galaxies via the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and to measure the small-scale angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The data will be used to characterize the primordial matter power spectrum and to place constraints on the equation of state of dark energy. A second-generation camera will measure the polarization of the CMB, potentially leading to constraints on the neutrino mass and the energy scale of inflation.Comment: 47 pages, 14 figures, updated to match version to be published in PASP 123 903 (May, 2011

Determination of sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in aqueous and solid samples from an Italian wastewater treatment plant

This study addresses the issue of whether it is possible to accurately predict the removalefficiencies of metals of environmental concern (i.e., Al, Ag, As, B, Ba, Cd, Cr, Fe, Mn, Hg, Ni,Pb, Cu, V, and Zn) in a wastewater treatment plant. The plant in question (at Fusina, Venice,Italy) is fed by mixed wastes from municipal and industrial sources (300 000 equivalentinhabitants) and discharges the treated effluent into the Venice lagoon. The year-long samplingcampaign (2001-2002) yielded a substantial amount of analytical data and relatively wide rangesof concentrations of metals in the influent samples, which made it possible to study the removalefficiencies by plotting the terms (inlet concentration - outlet concentration) vs (inlet concentration)for each metal investigated. The data in the plots were fitted using the linear regressionmodel Y ) BX. The slope rates (terms B), which were estimated by the least-squares method,have been adopted as the removal efficiencies, and they can be considered as constants in theconcentration ranges recorded in this work. The relative abundance of metals in the rawwastewaters feeding Fusina WWTP followed the order Al > Fe > B > Zn > Ba > Mn > Cu >Pb > Hg ) Ni > Cr ) As > V > Ag > Cd, while in the effluent the order was Fe > Al > Zn >Mn > Ba > Ni > Cu > Pb > Cr > Ag > As > Hg ) V > Cd. The removal percentages (%) of themetals were Al ) 92 ( 1; Ag ) 94 ( 1; As ) 76 ( 3; B ) n.d.; Ba ) 85 ( 2; Cd ) 85 ( 2; Cr )87 ( 1; Fe ) 90 ( 1; Mn ) 61 ( 2; Hg ) 93 ( 1; Ni ) 50 ( 3; Pb ) 92 ( 1; Cu ) 93 ( 1; V )74 ( 2; and Zn ) 75 ( 3

Determination of total and available fractions of PAHs by SPME in oily wastewaters : overcoming interference from NAPL and NOM

Background, aim, and scope Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are often found in oily wastewaters. Their presence is usually the result of human activities and has a negative effect on the environment. One important step in addressing this problem is to evaluate the effectiveness of PAH removal by biological processes since these are the most cost-effective treatments known today. Many techniques are presently available for PAH determination in wastewaters. Solid phase microextracion (SPME) is known to be one of the most effective techniques for this purpose. When analyzing complex matrices with substances such as natural organic matter (NOM) and non-aqueous phase liquids (NAPL), it is important to differentiate the free dissolved PAH from matrix-bonded PAH. PAHs associated with the bonded fraction are less susceptible to biological treatment. The present study concerns the development of a simple and suitable methodology for the determination of the freely dissolved and the total fraction of PAHs present in oily wastewaters. The methodology was then applied to an oily wastewater from a fuel station retention basin. Material and methods Headspace SPME was used for analyzing PAH since the presence of a complex or dirty matrix in direct contact with the fiber may damage it. Four model PAHs—anthracene, fluorene, phenanthrene, and pyrene—were analyzed by GC-MS. Negligible depletion SPME technique was used to determine the free fraction. Total PAH was determined by enhancing the mass transfer from the bonded phase to the freely dissolved phase by temperature optimization and the use of the method of standard additions. The PAH absorption kinetics were determined in order to define the optimal sampling conditions for this method. The fitting of the experimental data to a mathematical model was accomplished using Berkeley Madonna software. Humic acid and silicon oil were used as model NOM and NAPL, respectively, to study the effect of these compounds on the decrease of SPME response. Then, the method was evaluated with wastewater from a fuel station spill retention basin. Results The SPME kinetic parameters—k 1 (uptake rate), k 2 (desorption rate), and K SPME (partition coefficient)—were determined from experimental data modeling. The determination of the free fraction required 15-min sampling to ensure that PAH depletion from sample was below 1%. For total PAH, a 30-min extraction at 100°C ensured the maximum signal response in the GC-MS. For the determination of free and total PAHs, extractions were performed before reaching the SPME equilibrium. The wastewater used in this study had no free fraction of the analyzed PAHs. However, the four studied PAHs were found when the method for total PAH was used. Discussion The addition of NOM and NAPL dramatically decreased the efficiency of the SPME. This decrease was the result of a greater partition of the PAHs to the NAPL and NOM phases. This fact was also observed in the analysis of the fuel station spill retention basin, where no free PAH was measured. However, using the method of standard addition for the determination of total PAH, it was possible to quantify all four PAHs. Conclusions The method developed in the present study was found to be adequate to differentiate between free and total PAH present in oily wastewater. It was determined that the presence of NOM and NAPL had a negative effect on SPME efficiency. Recommendations and perspectives The presence of binding substances had a great influence on SPME kinetics. Therefore, it is of extreme importance to determine their degree of interference when analyzing oily wastewaters or results can otherwise be erroneous. Other factors influencing the total PAH determinations should be considered in further studies.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - SFRH/BD/ 18816/2004, POCI/AMB/61044/200

Predictors of choice of initial antifungal treatment in intraabdominal candidiasis

Intraabdominal candidiasis (IAC) is the second most frequent form of invasive candidiasis, and is associated with high mortality rates. This study aims to identify current practices in initial antifungal treatment (IAT) in a real-world scenario and to define the predictors of the choice of echinocandins or azoles in IAC episodes. Secondary analysis was performed of a multinational retrospective cohort at 13 teaching hospitals in four countries (Italy, Greece, Spain and Brazil), over a 3-year period (2011\u20132013). IAC was identified in 481 patients, 323 of whom received antifungal therapy (classified as the treatment group). After excluding 13 patients given amphotericin B, the treatment group was further divided into the echinocandin group (209 patients; 64.7%) and the azole group (101 patients; 32.3%). Median APACHE II scores were significantly higher in the echinocandin group (p 0.013), but IAT did not differ significantly with regard to the Candida species involved. Logistic multivariate stepwise regression analysis, adjusted for centre effect, identified septic shock (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.54), APACHE II > 15 (aOR 1.16) and presence in surgical ward at diagnosis (aOR 1.16) as the top three independent variables associated with an empirical echinocandin regimen. No differences in 30-day mortality were observed between groups. Echinocandin regimen was the first choice for IAT in patients with IAC. No statistical differences in mortality were observed between regimens, but echinocandins were administered to patients with more severe disease. Some disagreements were identified between current clinical guidelines and prescription of antifungals for IAC at the bedside, so further educational measures are required to optimize therapies

Characterization of an onshore–offshore aquifer system in the Venetian Friulian Plain and north Adriatic Basin: a 3D modeling approach

Continental coastal aquifer systems are well-studied worldwide and are often characterized on the basis of extensive and diverse borehole datasets. However, while it is postulated that in some cases, these aquifers may extend offshore, their seaward reach remains widely unknown due to the frequently limited availability of data, particularly for subsurface sediments and their pore water salinity. This paper presents a valuable characterization of the onshore aquifers in the Venetian-Friulian Plain (northeastern Italy) and their offshore extension in the Northern Adriatic Shelf, within ~20 km from the coastline. Three-dimensional digital geological and stratigraphic modeling was used to investigate geometries of the layered artesian aquifer system hosted in the Middle to Late Pleistocene sedimentary succession. Near-coastal and offshore aquifers are found to have mainly formed during coastline migration driven by sea level changes and low-permeability layers, sealing these aquifers, result from fine alluvial sediments during sea level lowstands or fine marine sediments during highstands. This study suggests that Quaternary glacio-eustatic fluctuations are mainly responsible for the genesis of the layered aquifer system in the study area. Given the consistency of depositional processes active in the Northern Adriatic Basin since Middle-Pleistocene, and that coastal fresh groundwater extends hundreds of meters below the topographic surface, this study confirms that the Northern Adriatic Basin has significant potential to host widespread offshore freshened groundwater aquifers. This resource might represent an additional freshwater supply in the future

Behaviour and fate of nine recycled water trace organics during managed aquifer recharge in an aerobic aquifer

The fate of nine trace organic compounds was evaluated during a 12 month large-scale laboratory column experiment. The columns were packed with aquifer sediment and evaluated under natural aerobic and artificial anaerobic geochemical conditions, to assess the potential for natural attenuation of these compounds during aquifer passage associated with managed aquifer recharge (MAR). The nine trace organic compounds were bisphenol A (BPA), 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), N-nitrosomorpholine (NMOR), carbamazepine, oxazepam, iohexol and iodipamide. In the loworganic carbon content Spearwood sediment, all trace organicswere non-retardedwith retardation coefficients between 1.0 and 1.2, indicating that these compounds would travel at near groundwater velocities within the aquifer. The natural aerobic geochemical conditions provided a suitable environment for the rapid degradation for BPA, E2, iohexol (half life b1 day). Lag-times for the start of degradation of these compounds ranged from b15 to 30 days. While iodipamide was persistent under aerobic conditions, artificial reductive geochemical conditions promoted via the addition of ethanol, resulted in rapid degradation (half life b1 days). Pharmaceuticals (carbamazepine and oxazepam) and disinfection by-products (NDMA and NMOR) did not degrade under either aerobic or anaerobic aquifer geochemical conditions (half life N50 days). Field-based validation experiments with carbamazepine and oxazepam also showed no degradation. If persistent trace organics are present in recycled waters at concentrations in excess of their intended use, natural attenuation during aquifer passage alonemay not result in extracted watermeeting regulatory requirements. Additional pre treatment of the recycled water would therefore be required