Determination of eddy-diffusivity in the lowermost stratosphere

We present a 2D-advection-diffusion model that simulates the main transport pathways influencing tracer distributions in the lowermost stratosphere (LMS). The model describes slow diabatic descent of aged stratospheric air, vertical (cross-isentropic) and horizontal (along isentropes) diffusion within the LMS and across the tropopause using equivalent latitude and potential temperature coordinates. Eddy diffusion coefficients parameterize the integral effect of dynamical processes leading to small scale turbulence and mixing. They were specified by matching model simulations to observed CO distributions. Interestingly, the model suggests mixing across isentropes to be more important than horizontal mixing across surfaces of constant equivalent latitude, shining new light on the interplay between various transport mechanisms in the LMS. The model achieves a good description of the small scale tracer features at the tropopause with squared correlation coefficients R2 = 0.72…0.94

Hot and Diffuse Clouds near the Galactic Center Probed by Metastable H3+

Using an absorption line from the metastable (J, K) = (3, 3) level of H3+ together with other lines of H3+ and CO observed along several sightlines, we have discovered a vast amount of high temperature (T ~ 250 K) and low density (n ~ 100 cm-3) gas with a large velocity dispersion in the Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) of the Galaxy, i.e., within 200 pc of the center. Approximately three fourths of the H3+ along the line of sight to the brightest source we observed, the Quintuplet object GCS 3-2, is inferred to be in the CMZ, with the remaining H3+ located in intervening spiral arms. About half of H3+ in the CMZ has velocities near ~ - 100 km s-1 indicating that it is associated with the 180 pc radius Expanding Molecular Ring which approximately forms outer boundary of the CMZ. The other half, with velocities of ~ - 50 km s-1 and ~ 0 km s-1, is probably closer to the center. CO is not very abundant in those clouds. Hot and diffuse gas in which the (3, 3) level is populated was not detected toward several dense clouds and diffuse clouds in the Galactic disk where large column densities of colder H3+ have been reported previously. Thus the newly discovered environment appears to be unique to the CMZ. The large observed H3+ column densities in the CMZ suggests an ionization rate much higher than in the diffuse interstellar medium in the Galactic disk. Our finding that the H3+ in the CMZ is almost entirely in diffuse clouds indicates that the reported volume filling factor (f ≥ 0.1) for n ≥ 104 cm-3 clouds in the CMZ is an overestimate by at least an order of magnitude.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures, 3 table

Stratospheric variability and tropospheric annular‐mode timescales

Climate models tend to exhibit much too persistent Southern Annular Mode (SAM) circulation anomalies in summer, compared to observations. Theoretical arguments suggest this bias may lead to an overly strong model response to anthropogenic forcing during this season, which is of interest since the largest observed changes in Southern Hemisphere high‐latitude climate over the last few decades have occurred in summer, and are congruent with the SAM. The origin of this model bias is examined here in the case of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, using a novel technique to quantify the influence of stratospheric variability on tropospheric annular‐mode timescales. Part of the model bias is shown to be attributable to the too‐late breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which allows the tropospheric influence of stratospheric variability to extend into early summer. However, the analysis also reveals an enhanced summertime persistence of the model’s SAM that is unrelated to either stratospheric variability or the bias in model stratospheric climatology, and is thus of tropospheric origin. No such feature is evident in the Northern Hemisphere. The effect of stratospheric variability in lengthening tropospheric annular‐mode timescales is evident in both hemispheres. While in the Southern Hemisphere the effect is restricted to late‐spring/early summer, in the Northern Hemisphere it can occur throughout the winter‐spring season, with the seasonality of peak timescales exhibiting considerable variability between different 50 year sections of the same simulation

Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere

The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistryclimate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, �metrics� indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long�standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability

Shortfalls and Solutions for Meeting National and Global Conservation Area Targets

Governments have committed to conserving 17% of terrestrial and 10% of marine environments globally, especially “areas of particular importance for biodiversity” through “ecologically representative” Protected Area (PA) systems or other “area-based conservation measures”, while individual countries have committed to conserve 3–50% of their land area. We estimate that PAs currently cover 14.6% of terrestrial and 2.8% of marine extent, but 59–68% of ecoregions, 77–78% of important sites for biodiversity, and 57% of 25,380 species have inadequate coverage. The existing 19.7 million km2 terrestrial PA network needs only 3.3 million km2 to be added to achieve 17% terrestrial coverage. However, it would require nearly doubling to achieve, costefficiently, coverage targets for all countries, ecoregions, important sites, and species. Poorer countries have the largest relative shortfalls. Such extensive and rapid expansion of formal PAs is unlikely to be achievable. Greater focus is therefore needed on alternative approaches, including community- and privately managed sites and other effective area-based conservation measures.We are grateful to the many individuals and organizations who contribute to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species,WDPA, or to identification of IBAs or AZEs. We thank A. Bennett for help with data collation and N. Dulvy, W. Laurance, and D. Faith for helpful comments on an earlier draft. This work was supported by the Cambridge Conservation Initiative Collaborative Fund and Arcadia.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/conl.1215

Chemistry–climate model simulations of twenty-first century stratospheric climate and circulation changes

The response of stratospheric climate and circulation to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone recovery in the twenty-first century is analyzed in simulations of 11 chemistry–climate models using near-identical forcings and experimental setup. In addition to an overall global cooling of the stratosphere in the simulations (0.59 6 0.07 K decade21 at 10 hPa), ozone recovery causes a warming of the Southern Hemisphere polar lower stratosphere in summer with enhanced cooling above. The rate of warming correlates with the rate of ozone recovery projected by the models and, on average, changes from 0.8 to 0.48 Kdecade21 at 100 hPa as the rate of recovery declines from the first to the second half of the century. In the winter northern polar lower stratosphere the increased radiative cooling from the growing abundance of GHGs is, in most models, balanced by adiabatic warming from stronger polar downwelling. In the Antarctic lower stratosphere the models simulate an increase in low temperature extremes required for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, but the positive trend is decreasing over the twenty-first century in all models. In the Arctic, none of the models simulates a statistically significant increase in Arctic PSCs throughout the twenty-first century. The subtropical jets accelerate in response to climate change and the ozone recovery produces awestward acceleration of the lower-stratosphericwind over theAntarctic during summer, though this response is sensitive to the rate of recovery projected by the models. There is a strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation throughout the depth of the stratosphere, which reduces the mean age of air nearly everywhere at a rate of about 0.05 yr decade21 in those models with this diagnostic. On average, the annual mean tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere (;70 hPa) increases by almost 2% decade21, with 59% of this trend forced by the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag in the models. This is a consequence of the eastward acceleration of the subtropical jets, which increases the upward flux of (parameterized) momentum reaching the lower stratosphere in these latitudes

The extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

The extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (Ex-UTLS) is a transition region between the stratosphere and the troposphere. The Ex-UTLS includes the tropopause, a strong static stability gradient and dynamic barrier to transport. The barrier is reflected in tracer profiles. This region exhibits complex dynamical, radiative, and chemical characteristics that place stringent spatial and temporal requirements on observing and modeling systems. The Ex-UTLS couples the stratosphere to the troposphere through chemical constituent transport (of, e.g., ozone), by dynamically linking the stratospheric circulation with tropospheric wave patterns, and via radiative processes tied to optically thick clouds and clear-sky gradients of radiatively active gases. A comprehensive picture of the Ex-UTLS is presented that brings together different definitions of the tropopause, focusing on observed dynamical and chemical structure and their coupling. This integral view recognizes that thermal gradients and dynamic barriers are necessarily linked, that these barriers inhibit mixing and give rise to specific trace gas distributions, and that there are radiative feedbacks that help maintain this structure. The impacts of 21st century anthropogenic changes to the atmosphere due to ozone recovery and climate change will be felt in the Ex-UTLS, and recent simulations of these effects are summarized and placed in context