Human Social Behavior and Demography Drive Patterns of Fine-Scale Dengue Transmission in Endemic Areas of Colombia

Dengue is known to transmit between humans and A. aegypti mosquitoes living in neighboring houses. Although transmission is thought to be highly heterogeneous in both space and time, little is known about the patterns and drivers of transmission in groups of houses in endemic settings. We carried out surveys of PCR positivity in children residing in 2-block patches of highly endemic cities of Colombia. We found high levels of heterogeneity in PCR positivity, varying from less than 30% in 8 of the 10 patches to 56 and 96%, with the latter patch containing 22 children simultaneously PCR positive (PCR22) for DEN2. We then used an agent-based model to assess the likely eco-epidemiological context of this observation. Our model, simulating daily dengue dynamics over a 20 year period in a single two block patch, suggests that the observed heterogeneity most likely derived from variation in the density of susceptible people. Two aspects of human adaptive behavior were critical to determining this density: external social relationships favoring viral introduction (by susceptible residents or infectious visitors) and immigration of households from non-endemic areas. External social relationships generating frequent viral introduction constituted a particularly strong constraint on susceptible densities, thereby limiting the potential for explosive outbreaks and dampening the impact of heightened vectorial capacity. Dengue transmission can be highly explosive locally, even in neighborhoods with significant immunity in the human population. Variation among neighborhoods in the density of local social networks and rural-to-urban migration is likely to produce significant fine-scale heterogeneity in dengue dynamics, constraining or amplifying the impacts of changes in mosquito populations and cross immunity between serotypes

Solving Tree Problems with Category Theory

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has long pursued models, theories, and techniques to imbue machines with human-like general intelligence. Yet even the currently predominant data-driven approaches in AI seem to be lacking humans' unique ability to solve wide ranges of problems. This situation begs the question of the existence of principles that underlie general problem-solving capabilities. We approach this question through the mathematical formulation of analogies across different problems and solutions. We focus in particular on problems that could be represented as tree-like structures. Most importantly, we adopt a category-theoretic approach in formalising tree problems as categories, and in proving the existence of equivalences across apparently unrelated problem domains. We prove the existence of a functor between the category of tree problems and the category of solutions. We also provide a weaker version of the functor by quantifying equivalences of problem categories using a metric on tree problems.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, International Conference on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) 201

Closely-related Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu stricto) strains exhibit similar fitness in single infections and asymmetric competition in multiple infections

Wild hosts are commonly co-infected with complex, genetically diverse, pathogen communities. Competition is expected between genetically or ecologically similar pathogen strains which may influence patterns of coexistence. However, there is little data on how specific strains of these diverse pathogen species interact within the host and how this impacts pathogen persistence in nature. Ticks are the most common disease vector in temperate regions with Borrelia burgdorferi, the causative agent of Lyme disease, being the most common vector-borne pathogen in North America. Borrelia burgdorferi is a pathogen of high public health concern and there is significant variation in infection phenotype between strains, which influences predictions of pathogen dynamics and spread.In a laboratory experiment, we investigated whether two closely-related strains of B. burgdorferi (sensu stricto) showed similar transmission phenotypes, how the transmission of these strains changed when a host was infected with one strain, re-infected with the same strain, or co-infected with two strains. Ixodes scapularis, the black-legged tick, nymphs were used to sequentially infect laboratory-bred Peromyscus leucopus, white-footed mice, with one strain only, homologous infection with the same stain, or heterologous infection with both strains. We used the results of this laboratory experiment to simulate long-term persistence and maintenance of each strain in a simple simulation model.Strain LG734 was more competitive than BL206, showing no difference in transmission between the heterologous infection groups and single-infection controls, while strain BL206 transmission was significantly reduced when strain LG734 infected first. The results of the model show that this asymmetry in competition could lead to extinction of strain BL206 unless there was a tick-to-host transmission advantage to this less competitive strain.This asymmetric competitive interaction suggests that strain identity and the biotic context of co-infection is important to predict strain dynamics and persistence

Modeling platform to assess the effectiveness of single and integrated Ixodes scapularis tick control methods

Background Lyme disease continues to expand in Canada and the USA and no single intervention is likely to curb the epidemic. Methods We propose a platform to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of a subset of Ixodes scapularis tick management approaches. The platform allows us to assess the impact of different control treatments, conducted either individually (single interventions) or in combination (combined efforts), with varying timings and durations. Interventions include three low environmental toxicity measures in differing combinations, namely reductions in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, broadcast area-application of the entomopathogenic fungus Metarhizium anisopliae, and fipronil-based rodent-targeted bait boxes. To assess the impact of these control efforts, we calibrated a process-based mathematical model to data collected from residential properties in the town of Redding, southwestern Connecticut, where an integrated tick management program to reduce I.xodes scapularis nymphs was conducted from 2013 through 2016. We estimated parameters mechanistically for each of the three treatments, simulated multiple combinations and timings of interventions, and computed the resulting percent reduction of the nymphal peak and of the area under the phenology curve. Results Simulation outputs suggest that the three-treatment combination and the bait boxes–deer reduction combination had the overall highest impacts on suppressing I. scapularis nymphs. All (single or combined) interventions were more efficacious when implemented for a higher number of years. When implemented for at least 4 years, most interventions (except the single application of the entomopathogenic fungus) were predicted to strongly reduce the nymphal peak compared with the no intervention scenario. Finally, we determined the optimal period to apply the entomopathogenic fungus in residential yards, depending on the number of applications. Conclusions Computer simulation is a powerful tool to identify the optimal deployment of individual and combined tick management approaches, which can synergistically contribute to short-to-long-term, costeffective, and sustainable control of tick-borne diseases in integrated tick management (ITM) interventions. Graphical Abstrac

Using high spatial resolution remote sensing for risk mapping of malaria occurrence in the Nouna district, Burkina Faso

Introduction: Malaria control measures such as early diagnosis and treatment, intermittent treatment of pregnant women, impregnated bed nets, indoor spraying and larval control measures are difficult to target specifically because of imprecise estimates of risk at a small-scale level. Ways of estimating local risks for malaria are therefore important.Methods: A high-resolution satellite view from the SPOT 5 satellite during 2008 was used to generate a land cover classification in the malaria endemic lowland of North-Western Burkina Faso. For the area of a complete satellite view of 60 x 60 km, a supervised land cover classification was carried out. Ten classes were built and correlated to land cover types known for acting as Anopheles mosquito breeding sites.Results: According to known correlations of Anopheles larvae presence and surface water-related land cover, cultivated areas in the riverine vicinity of Kossi River were shown to be one of the most favourable sites for Anopheles production. Similar conditions prevail in the South of the study region, where clayey soils and higher precipitations benefit the occurrence of surface water. Besides pools, which are often directly detectable, rice fields and occasionally flooded crops represent most appropriate habitats. On the other hand, forests, elevated regions on porous soils, grasslands and the dryer, sandy soils in the north-western part turned out to deliver fewer mosquito breeding opportunities.Conclusions: Potential high and low risks for malaria at the village level can be differentiated from satellite data. While much remains to be done in terms of establishing correlations between remotely sensed risks and malaria disease patterns, this is a potentially useful approach which could lead to more focused disease control programmes.</p

Malaria risk and access to prevention and treatment in the paddies of the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania

Background: The Kilombero Valley is a highly malaria-endemic agricultural area in south-eastern Tanzania. Seasonal flooding of the valley is favourable to malaria transmission. During the farming season, many households move to distant field sites (shamba in Swahili) in the fertile river floodplain for the cultivation of rice. In the shamba, people live for several months in temporary shelters, far from the nearest health services. This study assessed the impact of seasonal movements to remote fields on malaria risk and treatment-seeking behaviour. Methods: A longitudinal study followed approximately 100 randomly selected farming households over six months. Every household was visited monthly and whereabouts of household members, activities in the fields, fever cases and treatment seeking for recent fever episodes were recorded. Results: Fever incidence rates were lower in the shamba compared to the villages and moving to the shamba did not increase the risk of having a fever episode. Children aged 1-4 years, who usually spend a considerable amount of time in the shamba with their caretakers, were more likely to have a fever than adults (odds ratio = 4.47, 95 confidence interval 2.35-8.51). Protection with mosquito nets in the fields was extremely good (98 antimalarials was uncommon. Despite the long distances to health services, 55.8 health facility, while home-management was less common (37 17.4-50.5). Conclusion: Living in the shamba does not appear to result in a higher fever-risk. Mosquito nets usage and treatment of fever in health facilities reflect awareness of malaria. Inability to obtain drugs in the fields may contribute to less irrational use of drugs but may pose an additional burden on poor farming households. A comprehensive approach is needed to improve access to treatment while at the same time assuring rational use of medicines and protecting fragile livelihoods

Malaria vectors and transmission dynamics in Goulmoun, a rural city in south-western Chad

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Knowledge of some baseline entomological data such as Entomological Inoculation Rates (EIR) is crucially needed to assess the epidemiological impact of malaria control activities directed either against parasites or vectors. In Chad, most published surveys date back to the 1960's. In this study, anopheline species composition and their relation to malaria transmission were investigated in a dry Sudanian savannas area of Chad.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A 12-month longitudinal survey was conducted in the irrigated rice-fields area of Goulmoun in south western Chad. Human landing catches were performed each month from July 2006 to June 2007 in three compounds (indoors and outdoors) and pyrethrum spray collections were conducted in July, August and October 2006 in 10 randomly selected rooms. Mosquitoes belonging to the <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>complex and to the <it>An. funestus </it>group were identified by molecular diagnostic tools. <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>infection and blood meal sources were detected by ELISA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Nine anopheline species were collected by the two sampling methods. The most aggressive species were <it>An. arabiensis </it>(51 bites/human/night), <it>An. pharoensis </it>(12.5 b/h/n), <it>An. funestus </it>(1.5 b/h/n) and <it>An. ziemanni </it>(1.3 b/h/n). The circumsporozoite protein rate was 1.4% for <it>An. arabiensis</it>, 1.4% for <it>An. funestus</it>, 0.8% for <it>An. pharoensis </it>and 0.5% for <it>An. ziemanni</it>. Malaria transmission is seasonal, lasting from April to December. However, more than 80% of the total EIR was concentrated in the period from August to October. The overall annual EIR was estimated at 311 bites of infected anophelines/human/year, contributed mostly by <it>An. arabiensis </it>(84.5%) and <it>An. pharoensis </it>(12.2%). <it>Anopheles funestus </it>and <it>An. ziemanni </it>played a minor role. Parasite inoculation occurred mostly after 22:00 hours but around 20% of bites of infected anophelines were distributed earlier in the evening.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study revealed the implication of <it>An. pharoensis </it>in malaria transmission in the irrigated rice fields of Goulmoun, complementing the major role played by <it>An. arabiensis</it>. The transmission period did not depend upon irrigation. Correct use of insecticide treated nets in this area may be effective for vector control although additional protective measures are needed to prevent pre-bedtime exposure to the bites of infected anophelines.</p

Low and seasonal malaria transmission in the middle Senegal River basin: identification and characteristics of Anopheles vectors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>During the last decades two dams were constructed along the Senegal River. These intensified the practice of agriculture along the river valley basin. We conducted a study to assess malaria vector diversity, dynamics and malaria transmission in the area.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional entomological study was performed in September 2008 in 20 villages of the middle Senegal River valley to evaluate the variations of <it>Anopheles </it>density according to local environment. A longitudinal study was performed, from October 2008 to January 2010, in 5 selected villages, to study seasonal variations of malaria transmission.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among malaria vectors, 72.34% of specimens collected were <it>An. arabiensis</it>, 5.28% <it>An. gambiae </it>of the S molecular form, 3.26% M form, 12.90% <it>An. pharoensis</it>, 4.70% <it>An. ziemanni</it>, 1.48% <it>An. funestus </it>and 0.04% <it>An. wellcomei</it>. <it>Anopheles </it>density varied according to village location. It ranged from 0 to 21.4 <it>Anopheles</it>/room/day and was significantly correlated with the distance to the nearest ditch water but not to the river.</p> <p>Seasonal variations of <it>Anopheles </it>density and variety were observed with higher human biting rates during the rainy season (8.28 and 7.55 <it>Anopheles </it>bite/man/night in October 2008 and 2009 respectively). Transmission was low and limited to the rainy season (0.05 and 0.06 infected bite/man/night in October 2008 and 2009 respectively). During the rainy season, the endophagous rate was lower, the anthropophagic rate higher and L1014F kdr frequency higher.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Malaria vectors are present at low-moderate density in the middle Senegal River basin with <it>An. arabiensis </it>as the predominant species. Other potential vectors are <it>An. gambiae </it>M and S form and <it>An. funestus</it>. Nonetheless, malaria transmission was extremely low and seasonal.</p

Avian Host-Selection by Culex pipiens in Experimental Trials

Evidence from field studies suggests that Culex pipiens, the primary mosquito vector of West Nile virus (WNV) in the northeastern and north central United States, feeds preferentially on American robins (Turdus migratorius). To determine the contribution of innate preferences to observed preference patterns in the field, we conducted host preference trials with a known number of adult female C. pipiens in outdoor cages comparing the relative attractiveness of American robins with two common sympatric bird species, European starling, Sternus vulgaris and house sparrow, Passer domesticus. Host seeking C. pipiens were three times more likely to enter robin-baited traps when with the alternate host was a European starling (n = 4 trials; OR = 3.06; CI [1.42–6.46]) and almost twice more likely when the alternative was a house sparrow (n = 8 trials; OR = 1.80; CI = [1.22–2.90]). There was no difference in the probability of trap entry when two robins were offered (n = 8 trials). Logistic regression analysis determined that the age, sex and weight of the birds, the date of the trial, starting-time, temperature, humidity, wind-speed and age of the mosquitoes had no effect on the probability of a choosing a robin over an alternate bird. Findings indicate that preferential feeding by C. pipiens mosquitoes on certain avian hosts is likely to be inherent, and we discuss the implications innate host preferences may have on enzootic WNV transmission