The Dynamics of Relief Spending and the Private Urban Labor Market During the New Deal

During the New Deal the Roosevelt Administration dramatically expanded relief spending to combat extraordinarily high rates of unemployment. We examine the dynamic relationships between relief spending and local private labor markets using a new panel data set of monthly relief, private employment and private earnings for major U.S. cities in the 1930s. Impulse response functions derived from a panel VAR model that controls for time and city fixed effects show that a work relief shock in period t-1 led to a decline in private employment and a rise in private monthly earnings. The finding offers evidence consistent with contemporary employers' complaints that work relief made it more difficult to hire, even though work relief officials followed their stated policies to avoid affecting private labor markets directly. Meanwhile, negative shocks to private employment led to increases in work relief, consistent with Roosevelt's stated goal of using relief to promote relief and recovery.

The Impact of New Deal Expenditures on Local Economic Activity: An Examination of Retail Sales, 1929-1939

**Revised version 2005** This paper empirically examines the New Deal's impact on local economic activity, as measured by retail sales, during the 1930s. Using a recently-uncovered data set that describes over 30 federal New Deal spending, loan, and mortgage insurance programs across all U.S. counties from 1933 to 1939, we estimate how the various New Deal programs that were designed to accomplish different objectives influenced retail spending. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and economic activity and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when spending in one county may have affected the economies of its neighbors. We find that New Deal spending on public works tended to promote retail sales in both the county where the money was spent and in contiguous neighbors, while spending on work relief increased economic activity in the county where the money was spent but at the expense of neighboring counties. Agricultural spending that limited production was associated with lower retail spending. New Deal loan programs appear to have had little or a somewhat negative effect. Finally, increases in the value of mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration had a strong positive effect on local economic growth during the Depression.

Do Federal Programs Affect Internal Migration? The Impact of New Deal Expenditures on Mobility During the Great Depression

** Revised version 2005** Using a recently-uncovered data set that describes over 30 federal New Deal spending, loan, and mortgage insurance programs across all U.S. counties from 1933 to 1939, this paper empirically examines the New Deal's impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census's reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when spending in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works and a larger value of loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration were all associated with migration into counties where such money was allocated. The FHA's stimulus to the housing industry and large-scale public works projects explain most of the regional variation in migration rates across the country. New Deal loans and agricultural spending to take land out of production had negligible effects on migration patterns.

Theta-point universality of polyampholytes with screened interactions

By an efficient algorithm we evaluate exactly the disorder-averaged statistics of globally neutral self-avoiding chains with quenched random charge $q_i=\pm 1$ in monomer i and nearest neighbor interactions $\propto q_i q_j$ on square (22 monomers) and cubic (16 monomers) lattices. At the theta transition in 2D, radius of gyration, entropic and crossover exponents are well compatible with the universality class of the corresponding transition of homopolymers. Further strong indication of such class comes from direct comparison with the corresponding annealed problem. In 3D classical exponents are recovered. The percentage of charge sequences leading to folding in a unique ground state approaches zero exponentially with the chain length.Comment: 15 REVTEX pages. 4 eps-figures . 1 tabl

From Collapse to Freezing in Random Heteropolymers

We consider a two-letter self-avoiding (square) lattice heteropolymer model of N_H (out ofN) attracting sites. At zero temperature, permanent links are formed leading to collapse structures for any fraction rho_H=N_H/N. The average chain size scales as R = N^{1/d}F(rho_H) (d is space dimension). As rho_H --> 0, F(rho_H) ~ rho_H^z with z={1/d-nu}=-1/4 for d=2. Moreover, for 0 < rho_H < 1, entropy approaches zero as N --> infty (being finite for a homopolymer). An abrupt decrease in entropy occurs at the phase boundary between the swollen (R ~ N^nu) and collapsed region. Scaling arguments predict different regimes depending on the ensemble of crosslinks. Some implications to the protein folding problem are discussed.Comment: 4 pages, Revtex, figs upon request. New interpretation and emphasis. Submitted to Europhys.Let

A Model Ground State of Polyampholytes

The ground state of randomly charged polyampholytes is conjectured to have a structure similar to a necklace, made of weakly charged parts of the chain, compacting into globules, connected by highly charged stretched `strings'. We suggest a specific structure, within the necklace model, where all the neutral parts of the chain compact into globules: The longest neutral segment compacts into a globule; in the remaining part of the chain, the longest neutral segment (the 2nd longest neutral segment) compacts into a globule, then the 3rd, and so on. We investigate the size distributions of the longest neutral segments in random charge sequences, using analytical and Monte Carlo methods. We show that the length of the n-th longest neutral segment in a sequence of N monomers is proportional to N/(n^2), while the mean number of neutral segments increases as sqrt(N). The polyampholyte in the ground state within our model is found to have an average linear size proportional to sqrt(N), and an average surface area proportional to N^(2/3).Comment: 8 two-column pages. 5 eps figures. RevTex. Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Folding of the Triangular Lattice in the FCC Lattice with Quenched Random Spontaneous Curvature

We study the folding of the regular two-dimensional triangular lattice embedded in the regular three-dimensional Face Centered Cubic lattice, in the presence of quenched random spontaneous curvature. We consider two types of quenched randomness: (1) a ``physical'' randomness arising from a prior random folding of the lattice, creating a prefered spontaneous curvature on the bonds; (2) a simple randomness where the spontaneous curvature is chosen at random independently on each bond. We study the folding transitions of the two models within the hexagon approximation of the Cluster Variation Method. Depending on the type of randomness, the system shows different behaviors. We finally discuss a Hopfield-like model as an extension of the physical randomness problem to account for the case where several different configurations are stored in the prior pre-folding process.Comment: 12 pages, Tex (harvmac.tex), 4 figures. J.Phys.A (in press

Pseudo-boundaries in discontinuous 2-dimensional maps

It is known that Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser boundaries appear in sufficiently smooth 2-dimensional area-preserving maps. When such boundaries are destroyed, they become pseudo-boundaries. We show that pseudo-boundaries can also be found in discontinuous maps. The origin of these pseudo-boundaries are groups of chains of islands which separate parts of the phase space and need to be crossed in order to move between the different sub-spaces. Trajectories, however, do not easily cross these chains, but tend to propagate along them. This type of behavior is demonstrated using a ``generalized'' Fermi map.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, Revtex, epsf, submitted to Physical Review E (as a brief report