Concept drift over geological times : predictive modeling baselines for analyzing the mammalian fossil record

Fossils are the remains organisms from earlier geological periods preserved in sedimentary rock. The global fossil record documents and characterizes the evidence about organisms that existed at different times and places during the Earth's history. One of the major directions in computational analysis of such data is to reconstruct environmental conditions and track climate changes over millions of years. Distribution of fossil animals in space and time make informative features for such modeling, yet concept drift presents one of the main computational challenges. As species continuously go extinct and new species originate, animal communities today are different from the communities of the past, and the communities at different times in the past are different from each other. The fossil record is continuously increasing as new fossils and localities are being discovered, but it is not possible to observe or measure their environmental contexts directly, because the time is gone. Labeled data linking organisms to climate is available only for the present day, where climatic conditions can be measured. The approach is to train models on the present day and use them to predict climatic conditions over the past. But since species representation is continuously changing, transfer learning approaches are needed to make models applicable and climate estimates to be comparable across geological times. Here we discuss predictive modeling settings for such paleoclimate reconstruction from the fossil record. We compare and experimentally analyze three baseline approaches for predictive paleoclimate reconstruction: (1) averaging over habitats of species, (2) using presence-absence of species as features, and (3) using functional characteristics of species communities as features. Our experiments on the present day African data and a case study on the fossil data from the Turkana Basin over the last 7 million of years suggest that presence-absence approaches are the most accurate over short time horizons, while species community approaches, also known as ecometrics, are the most informative over longer time horizons when, due to ongoing evolution, taxonomic relations between the present day and fossil species become more and more uncertain.Peer reviewe

Palaeoclimate estimates for the Middle Miocene Schrotzburg flora (S-Germany) – A multi-method approach.

We present a detailed palaeoclimate analysis of the Middle Miocene (uppermost Badenian–lowermost Sarmatian) Schrotzburg locality in S Germany, based on the fossil macro- and micro-flora, using four different methods for the estimation of palaeoclimate parameters: the coexistence approach (CA), leaf margin analysis (LMA), the Climate-Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP), as well as a recently developed multivariate leaf physiognomic approach based on an European calibration dataset (ELPA). Considering results of all methods used, the following palaeoclimate estimates seem to be most likely: mean annual temperature ∼15–16°C (MAT), coldest month mean temperature ∼7°C (CMMT), warmest month mean temperature between 25 and 26°C, and mean annual precipiation ∼1,300 mm, although CMMT values may have been colder as indicated by the disappearance of the crocodile Diplocynodon and the temperature thresholds derived from modern alligators. For most palaeoclimatic parameters, estimates derived by CLAMP significantly differ from those derived by most other methods. With respect to the consistency of the results obtained by CA, LMA and ELPA, it is suggested that for the Schrotzburg locality CLAMP is probably less reliable than most other methods. A possible explanation may be attributed to the correlation between leaf physiognomy and climate as represented by the CLAMP calibration data set which is largely based on extant floras from N America and E Asia and which may be not suitable for application to the European Neogene. All physiognomic methods used here were affected by taphonomic biasses. Especially the number of taxa had a great influence on the reliability of the palaeoclimate estimates. Both multivariate leaf physiognomic approaches are less influenced by such biasses than the univariate LMA. In combination with previously published results from the European and Asian Neogene, our data suggest that during the Neogene in Eurasia CLAMP may produce temperature estimates, which are systematically too cold as compared to other evidence. This pattern, however, has to be further investigated using additional palaeofloras

Effects of sodium butyrate on DNA content, glutathione S-transferase activities, cell morphology and growth characteristics of rat liver nonparenchymal epithelial cells in vitro

The effects of sodium butyrate, which has been shown to act as a differentiation promoting agent in several different tumor cell lines, were studied in a rat liver nonparenchymal epithelial cell line. Exposure of these cells to 3.75 mM butyrate resulted in an inhibition of cell proliferation and, at the same time, an increase in cell diameter (2- to 6-fold) and size of the nuclei (∼2-fold) after 3 days in culture. Binucleated cells arose, comprising ∼12% of the cells investigated, and the number of cells with an abnormal set of chromosomes was increased. Intercellular communication, measured by dye transfer of Lucifer Yellow, was unchanged. From the various xenobiotic metabolizing enzyme activities measured, only those of glutathione S-transferases were significantly altered (increases of 4- to 9-fold) by butyrate treatment. These increases were mainly due to the predominant rise in the π class isoenzyme which is a well-known tumour marker in rat hepatocarcinogenesis. Thus, our results cannot be interpreted as being either due to promotion of differentiation or due to transformation. The state and type of cell under study has to be considered and investigations of further differentiation parameters are needed to obtain a deeper insight into the biological activity and the underlying mechanisms of cell state modifying agents like butyrat