Forecasting and Granger Modelling with Non-linear Dynamical Dependencies

Traditional linear methods for forecasting multivariate time series are not able to satisfactorily model the non-linear dependencies that may exist in non-Gaussian series. We build on the theory of learning vector-valued functions in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space and develop a method for learning prediction functions that accommodate such non-linearities. The method not only learns the predictive function but also the matrix-valued kernel underlying the function search space directly from the data. Our approach is based on learning multiple matrix-valued kernels, each of those composed of a set of input kernels and a set of output kernels learned in the cone of positive semi-definite matrices. In addition to superior predictive performance in the presence of strong non-linearities, our method also recovers the hidden dynamic relationships between the series and thus is a new alternative to existing graphical Granger techniques.Comment: Accepted for ECML-PKDD 201

A dynamic network approach for the study of human phenotypes

The use of networks to integrate different genetic, proteomic, and metabolic datasets has been proposed as a viable path toward elucidating the origins of specific diseases. Here we introduce a new phenotypic database summarizing correlations obtained from the disease history of more than 30 million patients in a Phenotypic Disease Network (PDN). We present evidence that the structure of the PDN is relevant to the understanding of illness progression by showing that (1) patients develop diseases close in the network to those they already have; (2) the progression of disease along the links of the network is different for patients of different genders and ethnicities; (3) patients diagnosed with diseases which are more highly connected in the PDN tend to die sooner than those affected by less connected diseases; and (4) diseases that tend to be preceded by others in the PDN tend to be more connected than diseases that precede other illnesses, and are associated with higher degrees of mortality. Our findings show that disease progression can be represented and studied using network methods, offering the potential to enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of human diseases. The dataset introduced here, released concurrently with this publication, represents the largest relational phenotypic resource publicly available to the research community.Comment: 28 pages (double space), 6 figure

Does the revised cardiac risk index predict cardiac complications following elective lung resection?

Background: Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score and Thoracic Revised Cardiac Risk Index (ThRCRI) score were developed to predict the risks of postoperative major cardiac complications in generic surgical population and thoracic surgery respectively. This study aims to determine the accuracy of these scores in predicting the risk of developing cardiac complications including atrial arrhythmias after lung resection surgery in adults. Methods: We studied 703 patients undergoing lung resection surgery in a tertiary thoracic surgery centre. Observed outcome measures of postoperative cardiac morbidity and mortality were compared against those predicted by risk. Results: Postoperative major cardiac complications and supraventricular arrhythmias occurred in 4.8% of patients. Both index scores had poor discriminative ability for predicting postoperative cardiac complications with an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.67) for the RCRI score and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66) for the ThRCRI score. Conclusions: In our cohort, RCRI and ThRCRI scores failed to accurately predict the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing elective resection of lung cancer. The British Thoracic Society (BTS) recommendation to seek a cardiology referral for all asymptomatic pre-operative lung resection patients with > 3 RCRI risk factors is thus unlikely to be of clinical benefit

Self-rated health in middle-aged and elderly Chinese : distribution, determinants and associations with cardio-metabolic risk factors

Background: Self-rated health (SRH) has been demonstrated to be an accurate reflection of a person's health and a valid predictor of incident mortality and chronic morbidity. We aimed to evaluate the distribution and factors associated with SRH and its association with biomarkers of cardio-metabolic diseases among middle-aged and elderly Chinese. Methods: Survey of 1,458 men and 1,831 women aged 50 to 70 years, conducted in one urban and two rural areas of Beijing and Shanghai in 2005. SRH status was measured and categorized as good (very good and good) vs. not good (fair, poor and very poor). Determinants of SRH and associations with biomarkers of cardio-metabolic diseases were evaluated using logistic regression. Results: Thirty two percent of participants reported good SRH. Males and rural residents tended to report good SRH. After adjusting for potential confounders, residence, physical activity, employment status, sleep quality and presence of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and depression were the main determinants of SRH. Those free from cardiovascular disease (OR 3.68; 95%CI 2.39; 5.66), rural residents (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.47; 2.43), non-depressed participants (OR 2.50; 95% CI 1.67; 3.73) and those with good sleep quality (OR 2.95; 95% CI 2.22; 3.91) had almost twice or over the chance of reporting good SRH compared to their counterparts. There were significant associations -and trend- between SRH and levels of inflammatory markers, insulin levels and insulin resistance. Conclusion: Only one third of middle-aged and elderly Chinese assessed their health status as good or very good. Although further longitudinal studies are required to confirm our findings, interventions targeting social inequalities, lifestyle patterns might not only contribute to prevent chronic morbidity but as well to improve populations' perceived health

The effectiveness of neuromuscular warm-up strategies, that require no additional equipment, for preventing lower limb injuries during sports participation: a systematic review

PMCID: PMC3408383The electronic version of this article is the complete one and can be found online at: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/75. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Assisted evolution enables HIV-1 to overcome a high trim5α-imposed genetic barrier to rhesus macaque tropism

Diversification of antiretroviral factors during host evolution has erected formidable barriers to cross-species retrovirus transmission. This phenomenon likely protects humans from infection by many modern retroviruses, but it has also impaired the development of primate models of HIV-1 infection. Indeed, rhesus macaques are resistant to HIV-1, in part due to restriction imposed by the TRIM5α protein (rhTRIM5α). Initially, we attempted to derive rhTRIM5α-resistant HIV-1 strains using two strategies. First, HIV-1 was passaged in engineered human cells expressing rhTRIM5α. Second, a library of randomly mutagenized capsid protein (CA) sequences was screened for mutations that reduced rhTRIM5α sensitivity. Both approaches identified several individual mutations in CA that reduced rhTRIM5α sensitivity. However, neither approach yielded mutants that were fully resistant, perhaps because the locations of the mutations suggested that TRIM5α recognizes multiple determinants on the capsid surface. Moreover, even though additive effects of various CA mutations on HIV-1 resistance to rhTRIM5α were observed, combinations that gave full resistance were highly detrimental to fitness. Therefore, we employed an 'assisted evolution' approach in which individual CA mutations that reduced rhTRIM5α sensitivity without fitness penalties were randomly assorted in a library of viral clones containing synthetic CA sequences. Subsequent passage of the viral library in rhTRIM5α-expressing cells resulted in the selection of individual viral species that were fully fit and resistant to rhTRIM5α. These viruses encoded combinations of five mutations in CA that conferred complete or near complete resistance to the disruptive effects of rhTRIM5α on incoming viral cores, by abolishing recognition of the viral capsid. Importantly, HIV-1 variants encoding these CA substitutions and SIVmac239 Vif replicated efficiently in primary rhesus macaque lymphocytes. These findings demonstrate that rhTRIM5α is difficult to but not impossible to evade, and doing so should facilitate the development of primate models of HIV-1 infection

Gauge-Higgs Dark Matter

When the anti-periodic boundary condition is imposed for a bulk field in extradimensional theories, independently of the background metric, the lightest component in the anti-periodic field becomes stable and hence a good candidate for the dark matter in the effective 4D theory due to the remaining accidental discrete symmetry. Noting that in the gauge-Higgs unification scenario, introduction of anti-periodic fermions is well-motivated by a phenomenological reason, we investigate dark matter physics in the scenario. As an example, we consider a five-dimensional SO(5)\timesU(1)_X gauge-Higgs unification model compactified on the $S^1/Z_2$ with the warped metric. Due to the structure of the gauge-Higgs unification, interactions between the dark matter particle and the Standard Model particles are largely controlled by the gauge symmetry, and hence the model has a strong predictive power for the dark matter physics. Evaluating the dark matter relic abundance, we identify a parameter region consistent with the current observations. Furthermore, we calculate the elastic scattering cross section between the dark matter particle and nucleon and find that a part of the parameter region is already excluded by the current experimental results for the direct dark matter search and most of the region will be explored in future experiments.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figure

Why do women not use antenatal services in low and middle income countries? A metasynthesis of qualitative studies

Background: Almost 50% of women in low & middle income countries (LMIC’s) don’t receive adequate antenatal care. Women’s views can offer important insights into this problem. Qualitative studies exploring inadequate use of antenatal services have been undertaken in a range of countries, but the findings are not easily transferable. We aimed to inform the development of future antenatal care programmes through a synthesis of findings in all relevant qualitative studies. Methods and Findings: Using a pre-determined search strategy, we identified robust qualitative studies reporting on the views and experiences of women in LMIC’s who received inadequate antenatal care. We used meta-ethnographic techniques to generate themes and a line of argument synthesis. We derived policy relevant hypotheses from the findings. We included 21 papers representing the views of more than 1230 women from 15 countries. Three key themes were identified: ‘Pregnancy as socially risky and physiologically healthy’; ‘Resource use and survival in conditions of extreme poverty’and ‘Not getting it right first time’. The line of argument synthesis describes a dissonance between programme design and cultural contexts that may restrict access and discourage return visits. We hypothesize that centralized, risk-focused antenatal care programmes may be at odds with the resources, beliefs and experiences of pregnant women who underuse antenatal services. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that there may be a mis-alignment between current antenatal provision and the social and cultural context of some women in LMIC’s. Antenatal care provision that is theoretically and contextually at odds with local contextual beliefs and experiences are likely to be underused, especially when attendance generates increased personal risks of lost family resource or physical danger during travel; when the promised care is not delivered due to resource constraints; and when women experience covert or overt abuse in care settings

Quantum Interference of Photon Pairs from Two Trapped Atomic Ions

We collect the fluorescence from two trapped atomic ions, and measure quantum interference between photons emitted from the ions. The interference of two photons is a crucial component of schemes to entangle atomic qubits based on a photonic coupling. The ability to preserve the generated entanglement and to repeat the experiment with the same ions is necessary to implement entangling quantum gates between atomic qubits, and allows the implementation of protocols to efficiently scale to larger numbers of atomic qubits.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure