Exploring the Relationships of Fire Occurrence Variables by Means of CART and MARS Models

Recently, in the framework of long-term fire risk assessment, researcher have implemented spatial and non-spatial non-parametric prediction models to discover complex relationships among wildfire variables. The main scope was to overcome the assumption of spatial stationarity in the relationship among the response variable and the predictors, assumed by the traditional regression techniques. The present article aims to test and compare the potential of the CART and MARS models in predicting fire occurrence at local scale. The test is performed in the Arno River Basin, a fire prone area located in the central part of Italy. Road network, topographic variables and population data were implemented to build up fire prediction model using 1621 ignition points recorded during the period 1997-2003. The models produce two prediction maps slightly similar. In general the CART model overperform compare to the MARS one. Nonetheless, the MARS model produces a smoothened surface that theoretically better follow the probability of a fire event.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

The European Fire Database: technical specifications and data submission

The European Fire Database is an important component of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), the EC focal point of information on forest fires established by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Directorate General for Environment to provide up to date and harmonized information on forest fires in Europe. As of 2014 EFFIS is part of the Forest Information System for Europe (FISE), following the new EU Forest Strategy adopted in 2013. The Fire Database is the largest repository of information on individual fire events in Europe and is the end product of a long collaboration between European countries and the European Commission on forest fires. It contains forest fire information compiled by member countries of the EFFIS network. Fire data provided each year by national authorities are checked, stored and managed by JRC within the fire database. Each country has its own internal rules of reporting on individual fire events which is in most cases done mainly for administrative purposes. To widen the exploitation potential of the national fire data within the European Fire Database and to enhance data harmonization and data quality control, the common data set up has been gradually modified over the years. A common and in depth understanding of latest definitions and data specifications is of paramount importance. This report intends contributing to these efforts illustrating in detail the data stored in the European Fire Database, their definitions, the formats required for country data submission and the process of data validation and storage carried out at JRC.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

EFDM-geo: A spatially-explicit pan-European application of the European Forestry Dynamics Model

EFDM-geo is a spatially-explicit forest growth modelling system that was developed to support the assessment of wood availability in Europe for the forest-based sector and the bioeconomy. This document describes EFDM-geo as it was implemented for seamless pan-European modelling, allowing for continental-wide scenario runs and the integration of demand for harvest levels of timber assortments. The model contains a forest growth component that simulates natural growth for different forest types in Europe. It also simulates management activities that affect the natural growth process. Three activities: harvesting, thinning and no management, are configured to respond according to the demand for wood for material and energy uses. The national-level data on market demand is downscaled to NUTS 1 regional level. At this level, bio-geo-climatic variables such as the forest type (species, age and volume classes), topography and road accessibility are included in the computation of which forest stands are more likely to be subject to some management activity. As the simulation progresses in time, the forest type evolves according to the predefined rules governing growth for given management activities. As a recursive model, the forest composition can be estimated at any point in time during the simulation for any individual NUTS 1 region in Europe or for the whole EU territory. The spatially-explicit component of this model is useful for computation of environmental indicators. When overlain with data such as watersheds, soil type and areas prone to natural disaster, the impact of forest growth and activities in the forest can be studied. Furthermore, the impacts of spatially-explicit policy such as zoning and protection of certain areas; or the simulation of new biomass processing plants can be assessed through scenarios. The implementation of the model and the modelling environment are available as open source software.JRC.D.1 - Bio-econom

Modeling the impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in Europe: Sectorial results of the PESETA II Project

Modeling the impacts of climate change on forest fire danger in Europe:Sectorial results of the PESETA II Project. This constitutes a sectorial analysis of the PESETA II project of the European Commission Joint Research Center in the area of wildfires.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Harmonized classification scheme of fire causes in the EU adopted for the European Fire Database of EFFIS

The information on the causes of forest fires is of paramount importance to support the environmental and civil protection policies and design appropriate prevention measure. At the European level a simple common scheme with 4 fire causes classes (deliberate, accident/negligence, natural and unknown) has been used to record information on fire causes since 1992. European countries use national schemes which in most cases are much more detailed than the simple 4 common classes, but they are not harmonized and detailed cross country comparisons are difficult. The need for a new EU scheme, more detailed than the 4 basic categories and harmonized across European countries, to be recorded in the Fire Database of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), has been identified to improve the information level and the common knowledge on the origin of forest fires in Europe. The new scheme has been conceived to be applicable with limited changes to the previous country settings, preserving as much as possible the historical data series of each country and exploiting at the same time as much as possible the level of detail of the information available. This report provides a detailed description of the new scheme, its main features with precise definition of each cause class and the mapping of the historical national systems to the new harmonized system. The scheme is hierarchical and is made of 29 fire cause classes, 8 groups and 6 categories. The explicit statement on the level of certainty in the attribution of the cause to a fire event has been introduced as a key element in the new scheme. This harmonized fire cause classification scheme is expected to be adopted by the countries participating to the EFFIS network in the coming years, and therefore be recorded in the European Fire Database, with a significant added value for the knowledge about the origin of forest fires in Europe.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Analysis of Forest Fire Camages in Natura 2000 Sites During the 2007 Fire Season

This report presents the assessment of the damages caused by the forest fires in the EU Mediterranean countries (Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) during the fire season of 2007, with special emphasis on the impact of these fires in Natura 2000 sites. It presents an overall short summary for the whole region and a detail analysis for each of the EU Mediterranean countries. For each country the report describes the tendency in the areas burnt by fires in the country during the last 27 years using the EU Fire database of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS); in the case of Cyprus the report is limited to the last 8 years. Maps of burnt areas obtained through the processing of satellite imagery in EFFIS are presented next to the list of Natura 2000 sites affected by the fires. Lastly, the report includes the list of plant and animal species of special interest in the Natura 2000 that were likely affected by the forest fires.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Forest Fire Damage in Natura 2000 sites 2000-2012

Forest fires are a threat for the forest and natural areas in Europe. Over 65 000 fires take place every year in the European Union, burning, on average, half a million hectares of the European landscape. Economic losses due to forest fires in the European Union territory are estimated in over 2 billion Euro every year. Areas protected under the Natura 2000 scheme are no exception to the damage caused by forest fires. Every year, approximately 80 000 ha are burned within the Natura 2000 sites. In the study period of this report, between the years 2000 and 2012, 1 044 917 ha of Natura 2000 protected areas were burnt, corresponding to 3.28% of the total Natura 2000 area in the affected countries. The environmental and economic damage of these fires is difficult to estimate, since often fires affect protected and endangered species living in these protected habitats. The current report analyses the impact of forest fires in Natura 2000 sites during the period 2000 to 2012. Special emphasis is put on the analysis of damages caused by large fires in the EU Mediterranean region, where most of these fires occur.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Forest Fires in Europe 2007

The long time series of forest fire data available for these 5 southern countries (Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Greece) justifies a separate analysis as it has been the case in previous reports. During 2007, fires in these 5 countries burned a total are of 574 361 hectares, which is well above the average for the last 28 years. On the other hand, the number of fires that occured (42 259) is below the average for the last 28 years (see Table 1 for details). Figure 1a shows the total burnt area per year in the five Southern Member States since 1980. The statistics vary considerably from one year to the next, which clearly indicates how much the burnt area depends on seasonal metereological conditions.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard