Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Optimum Production Forecast: A Case Study of 7up Soft Drink Company in Nigeria

This study focuses on the establishment of an optimum forecast model that predicts future production trends of 7UP Bottling company. Sixty (60)months time series data of 7UP bottling company were used after ascertaining the presence of seasonal variation and trend components of the data to establish the multidimensional forecast model. Predictive Production rate model was developed using a general multivariate regression equation form. The monitoring schemes show values of MSE and MAD as 0.0177 and 0.0658 respectively giving a tracking signal of 0.0. These values established the multivariate forecast model as optimum approach in tracking demand and production trends in a production setup. The value of the standard deviation of distribution of errors of 0.0823 estimated with MAD also confirms the authenticity of this model. The responses shown in the graphics of this study clearly explains the mixed time series which definitely contains seasonal variation and trend components as established in this study. Also the coefficient of determination of 0.957956 explains about 97% fitness of the established model to production data. The trend component associated with time variable (Mtncod) causes production to increase by 0.002579KG/Month. Finally, this work adds to the growing body of literature on data-driven production and inventory management by utilizing historical data in the development of useful forecasting mathematical model.Keywords: production model, inventory management, multivariate timeseries, production forecas

Malaria diagnosis and treatment amongst health workers in University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital Enugu, Nigeria

Background: Confirmation of malaria and appropriate treatment are keys to malaria control.Objective: To determine the practice of malaria diagnosis and treatment in a Nigerian tertiary hospital.Materials and Methods: Retrospective review of patients’ records at the Children’s Clinic in UNTH.Results: Out of 6,684 children seen within the one year reviewed period, children diagnosed with malaria were 35.8 percent. Males were 60 percent and females were 40 percent. Children under five years were 72.6 percent of the total. Folders successfully traced were 1012; in 92 percent investigations for malaria were requested while 32 percent had differential diagnosis. Out of the 931 malaria investigations requested, 30percent did the tests and positive results were 94.9 percent. Presumptive treatment was 98 percent. Majority (83.3%) received ACTs.Conclusion: The practice of presumptive treatment was high and few cases had a differential diagnosis. Training of health workers on the need to confirm malaria cases is required.Key words: Children, diagnosis, malaria, Nigeria, treatmen

Application of the Galerkin-Vlasov method to the flexural analysis of simply supported rectangular Kirchhoff plates under uniform loads

Plates are important structural elements used to model bridge decks, retaining walls, floor slabs, spacecraft panels, aerospace structures, and ship hulls amongst. Plates have been modelled using three dimensional elasticity theory, Reissner’s theory, Kirchhoff theory, Shimpi’s theory, Von Karman’s theory, etc. The resulting plate equations have also been solved using classical and numerical techniques.In this research, the Galerkin-Vlasov variational method was used to present a general formulation of the Kirchhoff plate problem with simply supported edges and under distributed loads. The problem was then solved to obtain the displacements, and the bending moments in a Kirchhoff plate with simply supported edges and under uniform load. Maximum values of the displacement and the bending moments were found to occur at the plate center. The Galerkin Vlasov solutions for a rectangular simply supported Kirchhoff plate carrying uniform load was found to be exactly identical with the Navier double trigonometric series solution. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/njt.v35i4.

Assessment of Mesophilic Co-Digestion of Cow Dung with Lemon Grass for Biogas Production

The scarcity of energy (fossil) and its attendant pollution menace have provided the avenue to consider alternative sources of energy. A study was carried out on the design and construction of an Anaerobic Digester system using 1mm galvanized steel for the production of biogas from co-digestion of Cow dung and Lemon grass sourced from the Zaria abattoir and the University campus respectively. The experiment lasted for 30 days using a 25-liter pilot scale anaerobic digester. A total of 0.146m3(0.100m3after scrubbing) were produced with a deviation and methane content of 0.003 m3 and 68.53% respectively. The cooking test carried out revealed that the scrubbed gas had higher cooking rates for both water and rice (0.10L/min and 0.0048kg/min respectively) than the unscrubbed gas (0.07L/min and 0.0034kg/min respectively while the biogas flow rate was 0.0049m3/min. An improvement of 42.86% and 41.18% was recorded for the cooking rates for water and rice respectively after the gas were scrubbed. The physico-chemistry of the feedstock in the digester revealed the digester temperature fluctuated between 280C and 36.70C while the pH of the medium fluctuated optimally between 5.81 and 7.73.The daily ambient temperatures varied from 31oC to 42oC. The research demonstrated that anaerobic co-digestion of cow dung with lemon grass produced a high quality biogas

Effect of Aqueous Extract of Pleurotus Tuber-Regium on Ethanol Induced Peptic Ulcer in Male Wistar Rats

Background and Objective: There is increasing desire for pleiotropic plant-based remedies for the treatment of peptic ulcer disease due to its prevalence and the challenges associated with existing therapies. This research was conducted to investigate the effect of aqueous extract of Pleurotus tuber-regium (PT) on ethanol induced peptic ulcer in male Wistar rats. Methods: This animal experiment used 30 male Wistar rats. They were divided into five groups (6 rats each) namely: Normal control (Group A), Ulcer control (Group B), Ulcer+omeprazole treatment (Group C), PT pre-treatment ulcer (Group D), and Ulcer+PT treatment (Group E). Peptic ulcer was induced by administration of 1 ml of 80% ethanol orally to each animal from group B to E. Four hours after the induction of gastric ulcer, the rats were sacrificed, the abdomen was opened to remove the stomach for histological study and gastric content to determine the gastric juice volume (ml/4 h). Data were analyzed using IBM SPSS Version 25. Findings: Treatment of ulcer with PT in group E and omeprazole (group C) significantly decreased the free acidity (E=0.83±0.20, C=1.20±0.11, p<0.05), total acidity (E=3.10±0.60, C=9.10±0.32, p<0.05) and ulcer index (E=5.00±2.02, 7.83±4.04, p<0.05) in comparison with group B (free acidity=3.06±1.09, total acidity=22.86±2.51 and ulcer index=32.83±1.74) and group D (free acidity=4.16±0.69, total acidity=17.06±1.91 and ulcer index=35.66±1.96). Group E showed higher percentage of ulcer inhibition (84.77%) than group C (76.15%), while group D showed no inhibition. Also, there were improvements in the macroscopic and microscopic structure of the stomach tissue‎. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that P. tuber-regium extract could serve as a better alternative to standard anti-ulcer drugs and considering that it is nutraceutical, it is a safe and more affordable alternative for the treatment of peptic ulcer

Fractured metallic tracheostomy tube in a child: a case report and review of the literature

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Tracheostomy is a common airway procedure for life support. The fracture of the tracheostomy tube is a rare complication. We report a case of a 14-year-old boy whose fractured stainless steel tracheostomy tube dislodged into the tracheobronchial tree. We include a literature review and proposed recommendations for tracheostomy care.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 14-year-old Thai boy who had a stainless steel tracheostomy tube presented with a complaint of intermittent cough for 2 months. During tracheostomy tube cleaning, his parents found that the inner tube was missing. A chest X-ray revealed a metallic density foreign body in his right main bronchus. He underwent bronchoscopic removal of the inner tracheostomy tube and was discharged without further complications.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A fractured tracheostomy tube is a rare complication. Appropriate cleaning and scheduled replacement of the tracheostomy tube may prevent this complication.</p

Human cardiac tissue in a microperfusion chamber simulating extracorporeal circulation - ischemia and apoptosis studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>After coronary artery bypass grafting ischemia/reperfusion injury inducing cardiomyocyte apoptosis may occur. This surgery-related inflammatory reaction appears to be of extreme complexity with regard to its molecular, cellular and tissue mechanisms and many studies have been performed on animal models. However, finding retrieved from animal studies were only partially confirmed in humans. To investigate this phenomenon and to evaluate possible therapies in vitro, adequate human cardiomyocyte models are required. We established a tissue model of human cardiomyocytes preserving the complex tissue environment. To our knowledge human cardiac tissue has not been investigated in an experimental setup mimicking extracorporeal circulation just in accordance to clinical routine, yet.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cardiac biopsies were retrieved from the right auricle of patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass grafting before cardiopulmonary bypass. The extracorporeal circulation was simulated by submitting the biopsies to varied conditions simulating cardioplegia (cp) and reperfusion (rep) in a microperfusion chamber. Cp/rep time sets were 20/7, 40/13 and 60/20 min. For analyses of the calcium homoeostasis the fluorescent calcium ion indicator FURA-2 and for apoptosis detection PARP-1 cleavage immunostaining were employed. Further the anti-apoptotic effect of carvedilol [10 μM] was investigated by adding into the perfusate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Viable cardiomyocytes presented an intact calcium homoeostasis under physiologic conditions. Following cardioplegia and reperfusion a time-dependent elevation of cytosolic calcium as a sign of disarrangement of the calcium homoeostasis occurred. PARP-1 cleavage also showed a time-dependence whereas reperfusion had the highest impact on apoptosis. Cardioplegia and carvedilol could reduce apoptosis significantly, lowering it between 60-70% (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our human cardiac preparation served as a reliable cellular model tool to study apoptosis in vitro. Decisively cardiac tissue from the right auricle can be easily obtained at nearly every cardiac operation avoiding biopsying of the myocardium or even experiments on animals.</p> <p>The apoptotic damage induced by the ischemia/reperfusion stimulus could be significantly reduced by the cold crystalloid cardioplegia. The additional treatment of cardiomyocytes with a non-selective β-blocker, carvedilol had even a significantly higher reduction of apoptotis.</p

Particle release from implantoplasty of dental implants and impact on cells

Abstract: Background: With increasing numbers of dental implants placed annually, complications such as peri-implantitis and the subsequent periprosthetic osteolysis are becoming a major concern. Implantoplasty, a commonly used treatment of peri-implantitis, aims to remove plaque from exposed implants and reduce future microbial adhesion and colonisation by mechanically modifying the implant surface topography, delaying re-infection/colonisation of the site. This in vitro study aims to investigate the release of particles from dental implants and their effects on human gingival fibroblasts (HGFs), following an in vitro mock implantoplasty procedure with a diamond burr. Materials and methods: Commercially available implants made from grade 4 (commercially pure, CP) titanium (G4) and grade 5 Ti-6Al-4 V titanium (G5) alloy implants were investigated. Implant particle compositions were quantified by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometer (ICP-OES) following acid digestion. HGFs were cultured in presence of implant particles, and viability was determined using a metabolic activity assay. Results: Microparticles and nanoparticles were released from both G4 and G5 implants following the mock implantoplasty procedure. A small amount of vanadium ions were released from G5 particles following immersion in both simulated body fluid and cell culture medium, resulting in significantly reduced viability of HGFs after 10 days of culture. Conclusion: There is a need for careful evaluation of the materials used in dental implants and the potential risks of the individual constituents of any alloy. The potential cytotoxicity of G5 titanium alloy particles should be considered when choosing a device for dental implants. Additionally, regardless of implant material, the implantoplasty procedure can release nanometre-sized particles, the full systemic effect of which is not fully understood. As such, authors do not recommend implantoplasty for the treatment of peri-implantitis

Urban malaria and associated risk factors in Jimma town, south-west Ethiopia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria kills millions around the world. Until recently it was believed to be a disease of rural areas, since the <it>Anopheles </it>mosquito, which transmits <it>Plasmodium </it>species breeds in rural areas. Urban malaria is emerging as a potential, but "avertable" crisis, in Africa. In view of the rapidly growing number of small and medium-sized towns in Ethiopia there is a pressing need to improve the understanding of the epidemiology of malaria. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine malaria prevalence and associated risk factors in Jimma town.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was carried out in Jimma town from April 1 to May 28, 2010. 804 study participants were included from 291 households for microscopic examination of malaria parasites. Socio-demography data and risk factors were collected using structured questionnaires. Logistic regression analysis was done using SPSS 15.0 statistical software.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From a total of 804 study participants in current survey only 42 (5.2%) were positive for malaria parasites. <it>Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium falciparum </it>and mixed infection accounted 71.4%, 26.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Higher malaria prevalence rate was observed among under-five children (11%). Those who do not use insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN) were more likely to be infected with malaria (OR = 13.6; 95% CI 4.9-37.2, p < 0.001) compared with those who use the ITN. Living in areas where stagnant water existed (OR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.00-4.2, p = 0.047) and its distance of existence <1 km from the house(OR = 2.1; 95% CI 2.0-15.8, p = 0.001) were more likely to be infected with malaria parasite compared with those who live away from stagnant at a distance greater than 1 km.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Malaria is a major health problem with <it>P. vivax </it>becoming a predominant species in the town. The prevalence was strongly associated with proximity of residence to potential mosquito breeding sites. Malaria is affecting significant proportions of the urban settlers and human activities nevertheless play an important role in bringing the mosquito breeding sites closer to residences.</p