Sources of uncertainty in future projections of the carbon cycle

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The inclusion of carbon cycle processes within CMIP5 Earth System Models provides the opportunity to explore the relative importance of differences in scenario and climate model representation to future land and ocean carbon fluxes. A two-way ANOVA approach was used to quantify the variability owing to differences between scenarios and between climate models at different lead times. For global ocean carbon fluxes, the variance attributed to differences between Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios exceeds the variance attributed to differences between climate models by around 2025, completely dominating by 2100. This contrasts with global land carbon fluxes, where the variance attributed to differences between climate models continues to dominate beyond 2100. This suggests that modelled processes that determine ocean fluxes are currently better constrained than those of land fluxes, thus we can be more confident in linking different future socio-economic pathways to consequences of ocean carbon uptake than for land carbon uptake. The apparent agreement in atmosphere-ocean carbon fluxes, globally, masks strong climate model differences at a regional level. The North Atlantic and Southern Ocean are key regions, where differences in modelled processes represent an important source of variability in projected regional fluxesMOHC authors were supported by the Joint DECC / Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Cli- mate Programme (GA01101). SY was supported by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University grant “Bayesian Modelling for Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate Predictions” (1-ZV9Z). We acknowl- edge use of R software package (R Core Team 2013). We acknowledge the World Climate Re- search Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and we thank the climate modelling groups for providing their GCM output (listed in Table 1). Support of this dataset was provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy

Exploring the views of desk-based office workers and their employers’ beliefs regarding strategies to reduce occupational sitting time, with an emphasis on technology-supported approaches

Objective: Employee and employer views regarding how technology-supportedstrategies can best meet their needs to reduce occupational sitting arenot well known. This study explored target user and key stakeholder beliefsregarding strategies to reduce occupational sitting focusing on technology supported approaches.Methods: Nine focus groups and two interviews(employees, n=27; employers, n=19; board members, n=2) were conducted,transcribed, and analyzed thematically.Results: The main barrier to reducing sitting was job-related tasks taking primary priority. Intervention designers should consider individual preferences, environmental factors, judgmental culture, productivity concerns, and staff knowledge. Technology-supported strategies such as smartphone applications, computer software, wearables, and emails were deemed to be useful tools to provide prompts and allow behavioral self-monitoring in an easily individualizedmanner.Conclusions: Technology-supported strategies were seen to bevaluable approaches and might fruitfully be incorporated into future interventions to reduce sitting time

Large-scale patterns of turnover and basal area change in Andean forests

General patterns of forest dynamics and productivity in the Andes Mountains are poorly characterized. Here we present the first large-scale study of Andean forest dynamics using a set of 63 permanent forest plots assembled over the past two decades. In the North-Central Andes tree turnover (mortality and recruitment) and tree growth declined with increasing elevation and decreasing temperature. In addition, basal area increased in Lower Montane Moist Forests but did not change in Higher Montane Humid Forests. However, at higher elevations the lack of net basal area change and excess of mortality over recruitment suggests negative environmental impacts. In North-Western Argentina, forest dynamics appear to be influenced by land use history in addition to environmental variation. Taken together, our results indicate that combinations of abiotic and biotic factors that vary across elevation gradients are important determinants of tree turnover and productivity in the Andes. More extensive and longer-term monitoring and analyses of forest dynamics in permanent plots will be necessary to understand how demographic processes and woody biomass are responding to changing environmental conditions along elevation gradients through this century

Emerging New Crop Pests: Ecological Modelling and Analysis of the South American Potato Psyllid Russelliana solanicola (Hemiptera: Psylloidea) and Its Wild Relatives

© 2017 Syfert et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Bringing CASE in from the cold: the teaching and learning of thinking

Thinking Science is a two-year program of professional development for teachers and thinking lessons for students in junior high school science classes. This paper presents research on the effects of Thinking Science on students’ levels of cognition in Australia. The research is timely with a general capability focused on critical thinking in the newly implemented F-10 curriculum in Australia. The design of the research was a quasi-experiment with pre and post-intervention cognitive tests conducted with participating students (n = 655) from nine cohorts in seven high schools. Findings showed significant cognitive gains compared with an age matched control group over the length of the program. Noteworthy, is a correlation between baseline cognitive score and school Index of Community Socio-Educational Advantage (ICSEA). We argue that the teaching of thinking be brought into the mainstream arena of educational discourse and the principles from evidence-based programs such as Thinking Science be universally adopted

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

A model of open-loop control of equilibrium position and stiffness of the human elbow joint

According to the equilibrium point theory, the control of posture and movement involves the setting of equilibrium joint positions (EP) and the independent modulation of stiffness. One model of EP control, the α-model, posits that stable EPs and stiffness are set open-loop, i.e. without the aid of feedback. The purpose of the present study was to explore for the elbow joint the range over which stable EPs can be set open-loop and to investigate the effect of co-contraction on intrinsic low-frequency elbow joint stiffness (

Oncological Follow-up Strategies for Testicular Germ Cell Tumours: A Narrative Review

\ua9 2022 The Authors. Context: The aim of this review is to describe the proportion of testicular germ cell tumours (tGCTs) with recurrence, and the timing and anatomical sites of relapse across different disease stages and after different treatment options. We summarise published follow-up protocols and discuss current and future developments to personalise follow-up for patients with tGCT. Evidence acquisition: A systematic literature search was conducted and current guidelines and selected institutional follow-up protocols were reviewed. Evidence synthesis: Of 302 publications, we screened 68 full texts and included 29 studies; 22 of these were retrospective and seven were prospective in nature, contributing data for 20 570 patients. The number of patients included per study ranged from 119 to 2483. We compared the guideline follow-up protocols of the European Society for Medical Oncology, European Association of Urology, National Comprehensive Cancer Network, and American Urological Association, as well as institutional follow-up protocols. The protocols differed in terms of the number, time points, and type of follow-up investigations. Conclusions: Future research should assess how tGCT can be followed to ensure high adherence, define the role of miR-371a-3p microRNA during follow-up, and develop follow-up protocols after curative treatment in the metastatic setting. Patient summary: In this review of follow-up protocols for men with testis cancer, we observed different recommendations and discuss future research areas to improve follow-up for these patients

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival