A simulation tool for better management of retinal services

Background: Advances in the management of retinal diseases have been fast-paced as new treatments become available, resulting in increasing numbers of patients receiving treatment in hospital retinal services. These patients require frequent and long-term follow-up and repeated treatments, resulting in increased pressure on clinical workloads. Due to limited clinic capacity, many National Health Service (NHS) clinics are failing to maintain recommended follow-up intervals for patients receiving care. As such, clear and robust, long term retinal service models are required to assess and respond to the needs of local populations, both currently and in the future. Methods: A discrete event simulation (DES) tool was developed to facilitate the improvement of retinal services by identifying efficiencies and cost savings within the pathway of care. For a mid-size hospital in England serving a population of over 500,000, we used 36 months of patient level data in conjunction with statistical forecasting and simulation to predict the impact of making changes within the service. Results: A simulation of increased demand and a potential solution of the 'Treat and Extend' (T&E) regimen which is reported to result in better outcomes, in combination with virtual clinics which improve quality, effectiveness and productivity and thus increase capacity is presented. Without the virtual clinic, where T&E is implemented along with the current service, we notice a sharp increase in the number of follow-ups, number of Anti-VEGF injections, and utilisation of resources. In the case of combining T&E with virtual clinics, there is a negligible (almost 0%) impact on utilisation of resources. Conclusions: Expansion of services to accommodate increasing number of patients seen and treated in retinal services is feasible with service re-organisation. It is inevitable that some form of initial investment is required to implement service expansion through T&E and virtual clinics. However, modelling with DES indicates that such investment is outweighed by cost reductions in the long term as more patients receive optimal treatment and retain vision with better outcomes. The model also shows that the service will experience an average of 10% increase in surplus capacity.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Heroes and villains of world history across cultures

© 2015 Hanke et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedEmergent properties of global political culture were examined using data from the World History Survey (WHS) involving 6,902 university students in 37 countries evaluating 40 figures from world history. Multidimensional scaling and factor analysis techniques found only limited forms of universality in evaluations across Western, Catholic/Orthodox, Muslim, and Asian country clusters. The highest consensus across cultures involved scientific innovators, with Einstein having the most positive evaluation overall. Peaceful humanitarians like Mother Theresa and Gandhi followed. There was much less cross-cultural consistency in the evaluation of negative figures, led by Hitler, Osama bin Laden, and Saddam Hussein. After more traditional empirical methods (e.g., factor analysis) failed to identify meaningful cross-cultural patterns, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) was used to identify four global representational profiles: Secular and Religious Idealists were overwhelmingly prevalent in Christian countries, and Political Realists were common in Muslim and Asian countries. We discuss possible consequences and interpretations of these different representational profiles.This research was supported by grant RG016-P-10 from the Chiang Ching-Kuo Foundation for International Scholarly Exchange (http://www.cckf.org.tw/). Religion Culture Entropy China Democracy Economic histor

Arterial oxygen content is precisely maintained by graded erythrocytotic responses in settings of high/normal serum iron levels, and predicts exercise capacity: an observational study of hypoxaemic patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations.

Oxygen, haemoglobin and cardiac output are integrated components of oxygen transport: each gram of haemoglobin transports 1.34 mls of oxygen in the blood. Low arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), and haemoglobin saturation (SaO2), are the indices used in clinical assessments, and usually result from low inspired oxygen concentrations, or alveolar/airways disease. Our objective was to examine low blood oxygen/haemoglobin relationships in chronically compensated states without concurrent hypoxic pulmonary vasoreactivity.165 consecutive unselected patients with pulmonary arteriovenous malformations were studied, in 98 cases, pre/post embolisation treatment. 159 (96%) had hereditary haemorrhagic telangiectasia. Arterial oxygen content was calculated by SaO2 x haemoglobin x 1.34/100.There was wide variation in SaO2 on air (78.5-99, median 95)% but due to secondary erythrocytosis and resultant polycythaemia, SaO2 explained only 0.1% of the variance in arterial oxygen content per unit blood volume. Secondary erythrocytosis was achievable with low iron stores, but only if serum iron was high-normal: Low serum iron levels were associated with reduced haemoglobin per erythrocyte, and overall arterial oxygen content was lower in iron deficient patients (median 16.0 [IQR 14.9, 17.4]mls/dL compared to 18.8 [IQR 17.4, 20.1]mls/dL, p<0.0001). Exercise tolerance appeared unrelated to SaO2 but was significantly worse in patients with lower oxygen content (p<0.0001). A pre-defined athletic group had higher Hb:SaO2 and serum iron:ferritin ratios than non-athletes with normal exercise capacity. PAVM embolisation increased SaO2, but arterial oxygen content was precisely restored by a subsequent fall in haemoglobin: 86 (87.8%) patients reported no change in exercise tolerance at post-embolisation follow-up.Haemoglobin and oxygen measurements in isolation do not indicate the more physiologically relevant oxygen content per unit blood volume. This can be maintained for SaO2 ≥78.5%, and resets to the same arterial oxygen content after correction of hypoxaemia. Serum iron concentrations, not ferritin, seem to predict more successful polycythaemic responses

The Gluonic Field of a Heavy Quark in Conformal Field Theories at Strong Coupling

We determine the gluonic field configuration sourced by a heavy quark undergoing arbitrary motion in N=4 super-Yang-Mills at strong coupling and large number of colors. More specifically, we compute the expectation value of the operator tr[F^2+...] in the presence of such a quark, by means of the AdS/CFT correspondence. Our results for this observable show that signals propagate without temporal broadening, just as was found for the expectation value of the energy density in recent work by Hatta et al. We attempt to shed some additional light on the origin of this feature, and propose a different interpretation for its physical significance. As an application of our general results, we examine when the quark undergoes oscillatory motion, uniform circular motion, and uniform acceleration. Via the AdS/CFT correspondence, all of our results are pertinent to any conformal field theory in 3+1 dimensions with a dual gravity formulation.Comment: 1+38 pages, 16 eps figures; v2: completed affiliation; v3: corrected typo, version to appear in JHE

Quantum Gravity in Everyday Life: General Relativity as an Effective Field Theory

This article is meant as a summary and introduction to the ideas of effective field theory as applied to gravitational systems. Contents: 1. Introduction 2. Effective Field Theories 3. Low-Energy Quantum Gravity 4. Explicit Quantum Calculations 5. ConclusionsComment: 56 pages, 2 figures, JHEP style, Invited review to appear in Living Reviews of Relativit

Bio-nanotechnology application in wastewater treatment

The nanoparticles have received high interest in the field of medicine and water purification, however, the nanomaterials produced by chemical and physical methods are considered hazardous, expensive, and leave behind harmful substances to the environment. This chapter aimed to focus on green-synthesized nanoparticles and their medical applications. Moreover, the chapter highlighted the applicability of the metallic nanoparticles (MNPs) in the inactivation of microbial cells due to their high surface and small particle size. Modifying nanomaterials produced by green-methods is safe, inexpensive, and easy. Therefore, the control and modification of nanoparticles and their properties were also discussed

Edible crabs “Go West”: migrations and incubation cycle of Cancer pagurus revealed by electronic tags

Crustaceans are key components of marine ecosystems which, like other exploited marine taxa, show seasonable patterns of distribution and activity, with consequences for their availability to capture by targeted fisheries. Despite concerns over the sustainability of crab fisheries worldwide, difficulties in observing crabs’ behaviour over their annual cycles, and the timings and durations of reproduction, remain poorly understood. From the release of 128 mature female edible crabs tagged with electronic data storage tags (DSTs), we demonstrate predominantly westward migration in the English Channel. Eastern Channel crabs migrated further than western Channel crabs, while crabs released outside the Channel showed little or no migration. Individual migrations were punctuated by a 7-month hiatus, when crabs remained stationary, coincident with the main period of crab spawning and egg incubation. Incubation commenced earlier in the west, from late October onwards, and brooding locations, determined using tidal geolocation, occurred throughout the species range. With an overall return rate of 34%, our results demonstrate that previous reluctance to tag crabs with relatively high-cost DSTs for fear of loss following moulting is unfounded, and that DSTs can generate precise information with regards life-history metrics that would be unachievable using other conventional means

Charged-Higgs phenomenology in the Aligned two-Higgs-doublet model

The alignment in flavour space of the Yukawa matrices of a general two-Higgs-doublet model results in the absence of tree-level flavour-changing neutral currents. In addition to the usual fermion masses and mixings, the aligned Yukawa structure only contains three complex parameters, which are potential new sources of CP violation. For particular values of these three parameters all known specific implementations of the model based on discrete Z_2 symmetries are recovered. One of the most distinctive features of the two-Higgs-doublet model is the presence of a charged scalar. In this work, we discuss its main phenomenological consequences in flavour-changing processes at low energies and derive the corresponding constraints on the parameters of the aligned two-Higgs-doublet model.Comment: 46 pages, 19 figures. Version accepted for publication in JHEP. References added. Discussion slightly extended. Conclusions unchange

Effective Rheology of Bubbles Moving in a Capillary Tube

We calculate the average volumetric flux versus pressure drop of bubbles moving in a single capillary tube with varying diameter, finding a square-root relation from mapping the flow equations onto that of a driven overdamped pendulum. The calculation is based on a derivation of the equation of motion of a bubble train from considering the capillary forces and the entropy production associated with the viscous flow. We also calculate the configurational probability of the positions of the bubbles.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur