Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use1. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments1, 2 and global crop models3 to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%–27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4–17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities

Predicting species dominance shifts across elevation gradients in mountain forests in Greece under a warmer and drier climate

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to face warmer and drier conditions in the future, following projected increases in temperature and declines in precipitation. The aim of this study is to explore how forests dominated by Abies borisii-regis, Abies cephalonica, Fagus sylvatica, Pinus nigra and Quercus frainetto will respond under such conditions. We combined an individual-based model (GREFOS), with a novel tree ring data set in order to constrain tree diameter growth and to account for inter- and intraspecific growth variability. We used wood density data to infer tree longevity, taking into account inter- and intraspecific variability. The model was applied at three 500-m-wide elevation gradients at Taygetos in Peloponnese, at Agrafa on Southern Pindos and at Valia Kalda on Northern Pindos in Greece. Simulations adequately represented species distribution and abundance across the elevation gradients under current climate. We subsequently used the model to estimate species and functional trait shifts under warmer and drier future conditions based on the IPCC A1B scenario. In all three sites, a retreat of less drought-tolerant species and an upward shift of more drought-tolerant species were simulated. These shifts were also associated with changes in two key functional traits, in particular maximum radial growth rate and wood density. Drought-tolerant species presented an increase in their average maximal growth and decrease in their average wood density, in contrast to less drought-tolerant species

Towards DNS of the Ultimate Regime of Rayleigh--B\'enard Convection

In this contribution we have briefly introduced the problem of turbulent thermal convection with a particular look at its transition to the ultimate regime and the resolution requirements needed for the direct numerical simulation of this flow.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Complexity in water and carbon dioxide fluxes following rain pulses in an African savanna

The idea that many processes in arid and semi-arid ecosystems are dormant until activated by a pulse of rainfall, and then decay from a maximum rate as the soil dries, is widely used as a conceptual and mathematical model, but has rarely been evaluated with data. This paper examines soil water, evapotranspiration (ET), and net ecosystem CO2 exchange measured for 5 years at an eddy covariance tower sited in an Acacia–Combretum savanna near Skukuza in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. The analysis characterizes ecosystem flux responses to discrete rain events and evaluates the skill of increasingly complex “pulse models”. Rainfall pulses exert strong control over ecosystem-scale water and CO2 fluxes at this site, but the simplest pulse models do a poor job of characterizing the dynamics of the response. Successful models need to include the time lag between the wetting event and the process peak, which differ for evaporation, photosynthesis and respiration. Adding further complexity, the time lag depends on the prior duration and degree of water stress. ET response is well characterized by a linear function of potential ET and a logistic function of profile-total soil water content, with remaining seasonal variation correlating with vegetation phenological dynamics (leaf area). A 1- to 3-day lag to maximal ET following wetting is a source of hysteresis in the ET response to soil water. Respiration responds to wetting within days, while photosynthesis takes a week or longer to reach its peak if the rainfall was preceded by a long dry spell. Both processes exhibit nonlinear functional responses that vary seasonally. We conclude that a more mechanistic approach than simple pulse modeling is needed to represent daily ecosystem C processes in semiarid savannas

Incorporating field wind data to improve crop evapotranspiration parameterization in heterogeneous regions

Accurate parameterization of reference evapotranspiration ( ET0) is necessary for optimizing irrigation scheduling and avoiding costs associated with over-irrigation (water expense, loss of water productivity, energy costs, and pollution) or with under-irrigation (crop stress and suboptimal yields or quality). ET0 is often estimated using the FAO-56 method with meteorological data gathered over a reference surface, usually short grass. However, the density of suitable ET0 stations is often low relative to the microclimatic variability of many arid and semi-arid regions, leading to a potentially inaccurate ET0 for irrigation scheduling. In this study, we investigated multiple ET0 products from six meteorological stations, a satellite ET0 product, and integration (merger) of two stations’ data in Southern California, USA. We evaluated ET0 against lysimetric ET observations from two lysimeter systems (weighing and volumetric) and two crops (wine grapes and Jerusalem artichoke) by calculating crop ET ( ETc) using crop coefficients for the lysimetric crops with the different ET0. ETc calculated with ET0 products that incorporated field-specific wind speed had closer agreement with lysimetric ET, with RMSE reduced by 36 and 45% for grape and Jerusalem artichoke, respectively, with on-field anemometer data compared to wind data from the nearest station. The results indicate the potential importance of on-site meteorological sensors for ET0 parameterization; particularly where microclimates are highly variable and/or irrigation water is expensive or scarce

Water balance creates a threshold in soil pH at the global scale

Soil pH regulates the capacity of soils to store and supply nutrients, and thus contributes substantially to controlling productivity in terrestrial ecosystems. However, soil pH is not an independent regulator of soil fertility-rather, it is ultimately controlled by environmental forcing. In particular, small changes in water balance cause a steep transition from alkaline to acid soils across natural climate gradients. Although the processes governing this threshold in soil pH are well understood, the threshold has not been quantified at the global scale, where the influence of climate may be confounded by the effects of topography and mineralogy. Here we evaluate the global relationship between water balance and soil pH by extracting a spatially random sample (n = 20,000) from an extensive compilation of 60,291 soil pH measurements. We show that there is an abrupt transition from alkaline to acid soil pH that occurs at the point where mean annual precipitation begins to exceed mean annual potential evapotranspiration. We evaluate deviations from this global pattern, showing that they may result from seasonality, climate history, erosion and mineralogy. These results demonstrate that climate creates a nonlinear pattern in soil solution chemistry at the global scale; they also reveal conditions under which soils maintain pH out of equilibrium with modern climate

Climate-Induced Changes in Spring Snowmelt Impact Ecosystem Metabolism and Carbon Fluxes in an Alpine Stream Network

Although stream ecosystems are recognized as an important component of the global carbon cycle, the impacts of climate-induced hydrological extremes on carbon fluxes in stream networks remain unclear. Using continuous measurements of ecosystem metabolism, we report on the effects of changes in snowmelt hydrology during the anomalously warm winter 2013/2014 on gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem production (NEP) in an Alpine stream network. We estimated ecosystem metabolism across 12 study reaches of the 254 km2 subalpine Ybbs River Network (YRN), Austria, for 18 months. During spring snowmelt, GPP peaked in 10 of our 12 study reaches, which appeared to be driven by PAR and catchment area. In contrast, the winter precipitation shift from snow to rain following the low-snow winter in 2013/2014 increased spring ER in upper elevation catchments, causing spring NEP to shift from autotrophy to heterotrophy. Our findings suggest that the YRN transitioned from a transient sink to a source of carbon dioxide (CO2) in spring as snowmelt hydrology differed following the high-snow versus low-snow winter. This shift toward increased heterotrophy during spring snowmelt following a warm winter has potential consequences for annual ecosystem metabolism, as spring GPP contributed on average 33% to annual GPP fluxes compared to spring ER, which averaged 21% of annual ER fluxes. We propose that Alpine headwaters will emit more within-stream respiratory CO2 to the atmosphere while providing less autochthonous organic energy to downstream ecosystems as the climate gets warmer