Development of Sustainability Scenarios

The purpose of the report is twofold. To begin with, it seeks to set out the objectives of, and methodologies for, the development of socio-economic and environmental scenarios for the European Union up until 2050f. In addition, the report undertakes to place scenario building in a wider political and socio-economic context. The report is structured as follows. In section II, the report compares forecasts and scenarios with a view to highlight common aspects and differences. In section III, the report discusses in more detail the purpose of scenario building against the background of the policy objective to reach sustainability. Section IV, finally, examines some of the methodological issues involved in scenario building and sketches out how scenarios can be built in a meaningful and feasible manner. The report is largely exploratory in nature as it seeks to identify critical issues and questions. The report is, in this respect, akin to one of the key purposes of scenario building itself. Accordingly, scenarios are not only developed as long range planning tool, but also with a view to foster and facilitate communication and reflection.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System. A Case Study for the Province of Milan, Italy

The study analyses the impact of the electric vehicles¿ recharging activities on the electric supply system for the Province of Milan with a 2030 time horizon. In particular, the impact is seen both in terms of total electric energy consumption and in power requested to the grid. Because of the long recharging time required by the cars batteries, the probability to have thousands of cars contemporary plugged-in is not negligible. The key issue of the study is a more plausible (in the authors¿ opinion) estimation of the potential electric vehicles market share evolution in the time period considered. The results obtained clearly show that without an appropriate regulation (e.g. the intelligent integration of electric vehicles into the existing power grid as decentralized and flexible energy storage), electric vehicles could heavily impact on the daily requested electric power.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit

The Calibration of Traffic Simulation Models : Report on the assessment of different Goodness of Fit measures and Optimization Algorithms MULTITUDE Project – COST Action TU0903

In the last decades, simulation optimization has received considerable attention from both researchers and practitioners. Simulation optimization is the process of finding the best values of some decision variables for a system whose performance is evaluated using the output of a simulation model. A possible example of simulation optimization is the model calibration. In traffic modelling this topic is particularly relevant since the solutions to the methodological issues arising when setting up a calibration study cannot be posed independently. This calls for methodologies able to check the robustness of a calibration framework as well as further investigations of the issue, in order to identify possible “classes” of problems to be treated in a similar way. Therefore in the present work, first a general method for verifying a traffic micro-simulation calibration procedure (suitable in general for simulation optimization) is described, based on a test with synthetic data. Then it is applied, my means of two different case studies, to draw inferences on the effect that different combinations of parameters to calibrate, optimization algorithm, measures of Goodness of Fit and noise in the data may have on the optimization problem. Results showed the importance of verifying the calibration procedure with synthetic data. In addition they ascertained the need for global optimization solutions, giving new insights into the topic. Research contained within this paper benefited from the participation in EU COST Action TU0903 MULTITUDEJRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Review of in use factors affecting the fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of passenger cars

This report primarily investigates the factors that affect fuel consumption and CO2 emissions which are not accounted for in the current type approval test and result in a shortfall between type approval and real-world fuel consumption or the corresponding CO2 emission values. A comprehensive literature review is carried out, in which we examine the available information and aim to provide qualitative and quantitative data. Where information is e insufficient, we point out the gap in knowledge. In addition, we have examined by means of simulation the significance of several factors that may change during every-day operation and may depend either on the driver or on external conditions. Several factors were identified affecting the in-use fuel consumption and CO2 emissions resulting in a shortfall between the type approval and real-world values. These include the increased electrical power load (e.g. A/C, steering assist), aerodynamic alterations (roof box, aerofoils), ambient conditions (temperature, wind, rain and altitude), driving behavior (aggressive driving, driver training), vehicle condition (lubrication, tyre condition), increased vehicle mass (passengers, additional equipment), road conditions (road surface, traffic conditions). They are complemented by so-called "flexibilities" associated with the existing NEDC-based type approval procedure. The combined effect of the different factors affecting CO2 emissions,, although not fully cumulative, can result in shortfall values ranging between 25% and 35%, based on information collected, the calculations run and the assumptions adopted in this study. These figures are in line with other literature sources where shortfall ranges from 20% up to 50% compared to the official certification value are reported. The per-passenger CO2 performance significantly improves when the occupancy rate is considered, hence a separate analysis was performed to this end. It can be concluded that due to the increase complexity of modern vehicles, the increasing number of passenger comfort systems and the great variety of possible operating conditions, it is difficult to capture the real-world fuel consumption with an exhaustive accuracy. It is expected that the introduction of the new test protocol (WLTP) will be a step forward in closing this shortfall. A separate analysis on the expected WLTP impact on CO2 is presented. It cannot be overlooked that driver behavior is an important element and therefore additional measures, in particular proper driver training and information, can help to reduce the discrepancy observed by drivers between their own in-use CO2 emissions from passenger cars compared to the test results.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Assessment of the monitoring methodology for CO₂ emissions from heavy duty vehicles: Pilot phase test-campaign report and analysis of the ex-post verification options

Following a request from DG-Clima and DG-GROW, JRC launched a test-campaign in order to investigate the validity, accuracy and plausibility of the methodology proposed for the verification of the certified CO2 emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles (aka ex-post verification methodology). In addition scope of the test campaign was to demonstrate the representativeness of the CO2 emissions calculations made by the official simulator (VECTO) by comparing against the actual performance of vehicles. Experiments were conducted on four Euro VI trucks, both on the chassis dyno and on the road with the aim of understanding the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches proposed. Two main verification approaches were investigated, steady state measurements in chassis-dyno / controlled conditions, and measurements under transient conditions on chassis-dyno and actual on-road operating conditions. The official simulation software (VECTO) was used for simulating the operation of vehicles under the different test conditions. The key conclusion of the test campaign is that an ex-post verification method which is based on transient, on-road tests is possible for trucks and comes with the advantage that it could potentially cover also other vehicle types which are difficult to be validated under steady state conditions in a laboratory or on a test track under controlled conditions. However, there is a clear need to work on the details of the test protocol to be finally implemented, define boundary conditions for transient tests on road, and establish the necessary acceptance and rejection margins for any such validation. Finally, additional testing is necessary in order to calculate accurately any systematic deviation between the officially reported, simulated, CO2 values and those actually occurring in reality. VECTO results should be periodically controlled and assessed in order to make sure that its CO2 estimates remain representative and minimize the possibility that discrepancies will occur in the future between the officially reported and actually experienced fuel consumption.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Analytical Framework to Regulate Air Emissions from Maritime Transport

Maritime transport activity is becoming one of the most important topics on sustainability debate. Indeed, a part from industrial activity and energy production, maritime transport is the largest contributors to air pollution and the increasing rate of trade make the problem even more worrying. Scope of this report is to sketch the state of the art on data, methodologies, air emissions estimations, technological and policy options to design a sectorial environmental policy strategy to regulate air emissions from ships. The report gives an overview of the main methods to estimate the air emissions deriving from shipping activities and compares their results to define a reference framework. Particularly attention is done to cost effectiveness analysis of technological and policy options to abate GHG emissions from international maritime transport taking into account the legal regulatory system of this sector, and the main legal and economics constraints to implement a sectorial policy to abate CO2 emissions.JRC.DDG.H.4-Transport and air qualit

Regulating Air Emissions from Ships: The State of the Art on Methodologies, Technologies and Policy Options

In recent years public concerns regarding the environmental impacts of maritime transport have increased. This is because maritime transport is the fifth largest contributor to air pollution and carbon emissions, and the growth rate of trade makes the problem even more pressing. However, considerable environmental improvements can be obtained by changing shipping practices. Current policy actions targeting issues such as emissions relate mainly to the quality of fuel used and to the available technological options. Market based instruments such as emissions trading are under discussion at international level within the IMO. Furthermore, the inclusion of the maritime transport sector within the EU Emission Trading Scheme is on the agenda of the EU strategy to address GHGs. The complexity of air pollution and climate change policies for the international maritime transport sector calls for a wide range of considerations to be taken into account requiring policymakers: 1) to set binding long-term emission reduction goals, 2) to take action in a flexible manner, 3) to ensure knowledge and technology sharing of innovative practices, and 4) transparency, administrative feasibility. This Reference Report summarises the main findings of a research activity carried out over several years and provides a reference framework of the analytical tools for regulating air emissions from ships. It sketches the �state of the art� with regard to the main methodological aspects of designing policy measures to regulate air emissions from maritime transport. These are: identification of the impacts; estimation of emissions, and identification and selection of technological and policy options to abate air emissions from ships. The overall aim of this Report is to provide analytical tools to help define a policy strategy to regulate air emissions from ships, by providing various insights into how to design and apply policy efficient and equitable instruments.JRC.DDG.H.8 - Sustainability Assessmen

Environmental impacts of global supply chain: a review of scientific, policy and legal components for including environmental and climate challenges

During the last two decades globalisation has been a key variable driving economic growth and raising the living standards of nearly everyone on the planet, although not without cost. Indeed, the growth in world trade resulting from globalisation is now increasingly seen as an issue in the scientific and political debate on the environmental impacts of global supply chain and consumption. Most cost efficient locations around the world accelerate the trends towards international specialization causing some distortions of the markets in terms of the use of natural resources. The relative international competitiveness of companies in nations with stronger environmental protection regulations (haven hypothesis) is one argument for looking at alternative global environmental regulatory tools that are compatible with international trade agreements and development policies. Literature recognises that stringent environmental policies can force pollution intensive sectors to move to regions more favourable if the abatement costs are too high. However, trade is not a driver of environmental degradation, but the structure of the markets and the presence of market failures (externalities, no definitions of property rights) are the causes of environmental impacts.This report analyses the key features of global supply chain and its environmental impacts related to biodiversity loss, water conservation, raw material. The report provides a deep analysis on Climate change and global supply chain. It analyses the scientific, legal and policy components of the international debate over carbon and trade. It introduces and analyses the concept of the consumption-based approach and compares it with the production-based one. The reports highlights that policy makers should look beyond the traditional geo-political regions and a consumption-based perspective would represent a significant step in this direction in order to manage a sustainable global supply chain.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

fUel-SAVing trip plannEr (U-SAVE): a product of the JRC PoC Instrument: Final report

Available tools for trip planning mostly rely on travel time and travel distance. Fuel costs, when taken into account, are based on simplified fuel consumption models and are usually independent from vehicle type and technology. Building on the work carried out by the Sustainable Transport Unit of the Joint Research Centre, European Commission, in developing (a.) CO2MPAS, the official tool supporting the WLTP/NEDC Correlation Exercise and allowing the back-translation of a WLTP test to the equivalent NEDC CO2 emission value during the type approval, and (b.) Green Driving, an interactive web-based tool allowing the estimation of fuel costs and CO2 emissions of individual car journeys on the basis of variables such as car segment, engine power, fuel type and driving style, the present project aimed at developing and proving the concept of a routing machine to be used when fuel consumption minimization is considered. Throughout the project a stand-alone off-board trip planner has been developed, the U-SAVE Desktop Version, while a smartphone application, the U-SAVE Navigation Application, is currently under the last development phase, and shall be used once completed as a low cost in-board navigation system. The tool has been extensively validated internally demonstrating both its capability to accurately estimate fuel and energy consumption via alternative trip options, and its capacity to provide a more efficient route when different from the shortest and/or fastest options. An open-access version of the tool is expected to become a reference instrument for private citizens who are concerned about their fuel consumption and a more efficient use of their vehicles, while a premium API-based commercial version of the tool can operate as a viable and scalable business model targeting, among others, established navigation software providers who want to extend their offering by providing an alternative route option to their clients, mainly private companies managing fleets of light-duty vehicles, for whom saving fuel from the daily vehicle operations is of crucial financial importance.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

2nd Symposium on Management of Future motorway and urban Traffic Systems (MFTS 2018): Booklet of abstracts: Ispra, 11-12 June 2018

The Symposium focuses on future traffic management systems, covering the subjects of traffic control, estimation, and modelling of motorway and urban networks, with particular emphasis on the presence of advanced vehicle communication and automation technologies. As connectivity and automation are being progressively introduced in our transport and mobility systems, there is indeed a growing need to understand the implications and opportunities for an enhanced traffic management as well as to identify innovative ways and tools to optimise traffic efficiency. In particular the debate on centralised versus decentralised traffic management in the presence of connected and automated vehicles has started attracting the attention of the research community. In this context, the Symposium provides a remarkable opportunity to share novel ideas and discuss future research directions.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor