Guidance on emissions metrics for nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement

Many nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement follow the established practice of specifying emissions levels in tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is the emissions metric used most often to aggregate contributions from different greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the climate impact of pathways expressed in this way is known to be ambiguous. For this reason, alternatives have been proposed but the ambiguity has not been quantified in the context of the Paris Agreement. Here we assess the variation in temperature using pathways consistent with the ambition of limiting temperature increases to well below 2 °C. These are taken from the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15). The CO2 emission levels are adjusted so that the pathways all have the same total CO2 equivalent emissions for a given emissions metric but have different proportions of short-lived and long-lived pollutants. We show that this difference affects projections by up to 0.17 °C when GWP100 is used. Options of reducing this ambiguity include using a different emissions metric or adding supplementary information in NDCs about the emissions levels of individual GHGs. We suggest the latter on the grounds of simplicity and because it does not require agreement on the use of a different emissions metric

Rapid Adjustments Cause Weak Surface Temperature Response to Increased Black Carbon Concentrations

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by nine global coupled‐climate models, producing a model median effective radiative forcing of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) W m⁻², and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 W m⁻² based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (−0.64 W m⁻² for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low‐level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher‐level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small median global warming of 0.47 K per W m⁻²—about 20% lower than the response to a doubling of CO₂. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present‐day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K

Latest climate models confirm need for urgent mitigation

Many recently updated climate models show greater future warming than previously. Separate lines of evidence suggest that their warming rates may be unrealistically high, but the risk of such eventualities only emphasizes the need for rapid and deep reductions in emissions

A behavioral database for masked form priming

Reading involves a process of matching an orthographic input with stored representations in lexical memory. The masked priming paradigm has become a standard tool for investigating this process. Use of existing results from this paradigm can be limited by the precision of the data and the need for cross-experiment comparisons that lack normal experimental controls. Here, we present a single, large, high-precision, multicondition experiment to address these problems. Over 1,000 participants from 14 sites responded to 840 trials involving 28 different types of orthographically related primes (e.g., castfe–CASTLE) in a lexical decision task, as well as completing measures of spelling and vocabulary. The data were indeed highly sensitive to differences between conditions: After correction for multiple comparisons, prime type condition differences of 2.90 ms and above reached significance at the 5% level. This article presents the method of data collection and preliminary findings from these data, which included replications of the most widely agreed-upon differences between prime types, further evidence for systematic individual differences in susceptibility to priming, and new evidence regarding lexical properties associated with a target word’s susceptibility to priming. These analyses will form a basis for the use of these data in quantitative model fitting and evaluation and for future exploration of these data that will inform and motivate new experiments

Online dietary intake estimation : Reproducibility and validity of the Food4Me food frequency questionnaire against a 4-day weighed food record

©Rosalind Fallaize, Hannah Forster, Anna L Macready, Marianne C Walsh, John C Mathers, Lorraine Brennan, Eileen R Gibney, Michael J Gibney, Julie A Lovegrove. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 11.08.2014. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work, first published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research, is properly cited. The complete bibliographic information, a link to the original publication on http://www.jmir.org/, as well as this copyright and license information must be included.Background: Advances in nutritional assessment are continuing to embrace developments in computer technology. The online Food4Me food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was created as an electronic system for the collection of nutrient intake data. To ensure its accuracy in assessing both nutrient and food group intake, further validation against data obtained using a reliable, but independent, instrument and assessment of its reproducibility are required. Objective: The aim was to assess the reproducibility and validity of the Food4Me FFQ against a 4-day weighed food record (WFR). Methods: Reproducibility of the Food4Me FFQ was assessed using test-retest methodology by asking participants to complete the FFQ on 2 occasions 4 weeks apart. To assess the validity of the Food4Me FFQ against the 4-day WFR, half the participants were also asked to complete a 4-day WFR 1 week after the first administration of the Food4Me FFQ. Level of agreement between nutrient and food group intakes estimated by the repeated Food4Me FFQ and the Food4Me FFQ and 4-day WFR were evaluated using Bland-Altman methodology and classification into quartiles of daily intake. Crude unadjusted correlation coefficients were also calculated for nutrient and food group intakes. Results: In total, 100 people participated in the assessment of reproducibility (mean age 32, SD 12 years), and 49 of these (mean age 27, SD 8 years) also took part in the assessment of validity. Crude unadjusted correlations for repeated Food4Me FFQ ranged from .65 (vitamin D) to .90 (alcohol). The mean cross-classification into "exact agreement plus adjacent" was 92% for both nutrient and food group intakes, and Bland-Altman plots showed good agreement for energy-adjusted macronutrient intakes. Agreement between the Food4Me FFQ and 4-day WFR varied, with crude unadjusted correlations ranging from .23 (vitamin D) to .65 (protein, % total energy) for nutrient intakes and .11 (soups, sauces and miscellaneous foods) to .73 (yogurts) for food group intake. The mean cross-classification into "exact agreement plus adjacent" was 80% and 78% for nutrient and food group intake, respectively. There were no significant differences between energy intakes estimated using the Food4Me FFQ and 4-day WFR, and Bland-Altman plots showed good agreement for both energy and energy-controlled nutrient intakes. Conclusions: The results demonstrate that the online Food4Me FFQ is reproducible for assessing nutrient and food group intake and has moderate agreement with the 4-day WFR for assessing energy and energy-adjusted nutrient intakes. The Food4Me FFQ is a suitable online tool for assessing dietary intake in healthy adults.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Mitochondrial echoes of first settlement and genetic continuity in El Salvador

Background: From Paleo-Indian times to recent historical episodes, the Mesoamerican isthmus played an important role in the distribution and patterns of variability all around the double American continent. However, the amount of genetic information currently available on Central American continental populations is very scarce. In order to shed light on the role of Mesoamerica in the peopling of the New World, the present study focuses on the analysis of the mtDNA variation in a population sample from El Salvador. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have carried out DNA sequencing of the entire control region of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome in 90 individuals from El Salvador. We have also compiled more than 3,985 control region profiles from the public domain and the literature in order to carry out inter-population comparisons. The results reveal a predominant Native American component in this region: by far, the most prevalent mtDNA haplogroup in this country (at ~90%) is A2, in contrast with other North, Meso- and South American populations. Haplogroup A2 shows a star-like phylogeny and is very diverse with a substantial proportion of mtDNAs (45%; sequence range 16090–16365) still unobserved in other American populations. Two different Bayesian approaches used to estimate admixture proportions in El Salvador shows that the majority of the mtDNAs observed come from North America. A preliminary founder analysis indicates that the settlement of El Salvador occurred about 13,400±5,200 Y.B.P.. The founder age of A2 in El Salvador is close to the overall age of A2 in America, which suggests that the colonization of this region occurred within a few thousand years of the initial expansion into the Americas. Conclusions/Significance: As a whole, the results are compatible with the hypothesis that today's A2 variability in El Salvador represents to a large extent the indigenous component of the region. Concordant with this hypothesis is also the observation of a very limited contribution from European and African women (~5%). This implies that the Atlantic slave trade had a very small demographic impact in El Salvador in contrast to its transformation of the gene pool in neighbouring populations from the Caribbean facade

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Global analysis of photovoltaic energy output enhanced by phase change material cooling

This paper describes a global analysis to determine the increase in annual energy output attained by a PV system with an integrated phase change material (PCM) layer. The PCM acts as a heat sink and limits the peak temperature of the PV cell thereby increasing efficiency. The simulation uses a one-dimensional energy balance model with ambient temperature, irradiance and wind speed extracted from ERA-Interim reanalysis climate data over a 1.5° longitude. ×. 1.5° latitude global grid. The effect of varying the PCM melting temperature from 0. °C to 50. °C was investigated to identify the optimal melting temperature at each grid location. PCM-enhanced cooling is most beneficial in regions with high insolation and little intra-annual variability in climate. When using the optimal PCM melting temperature, the annual PV energy output increases by over 6% in Mexico and eastern Africa, and over 5% in many locations such as Central and South America, much of Africa, Arabia, Southern Asia and the Indonesian archipelago. In Europe, the energy output enhancement varies between 2% and nearly 5%. In general, high average ambient temperatures correlate with higher optimal PCM melting temperatures. The sensitivity to PCM melting temperature was further investigated at locations where large solar PV arrays currently exist or are planned to be constructed. Significant improvements in performance are possible even when a sub-optimal PCM melting temperature is used. A brief economic assessment based on typical material costs and energy prices shows that PCM cooling is not currently cost-effective for single-junction PV

Effects of a web-based personalized intervention on physical activity in European adults: a randomized controlled trial

Background: The high prevalence of physical inactivity worldwide calls for innovative and more effective ways to promote physical activity (PA). There are limited objective data on the effectiveness of Web-based personalized feedback on increasing PA in adults. Objective: It is hypothesized that providing personalized advice based on PA measured objectively alongside diet, phenotype, or genotype information would lead to larger and more sustained changes in PA, compared with nonpersonalized advice. Methods: A total of 1607 adults in seven European countries were randomized to either a control group (nonpersonalized advice, Level 0, L0) or to one of three personalized groups receiving personalized advice via the Internet based on current PA plus diet (Level 1, L1), PA plus diet and phenotype (Level 2, L2), or PA plus diet, phenotype, and genotype (Level 3, L3). PA was measured for 6 months using triaxial accelerometers, and self-reported using the Baecke questionnaire. Outcomes were objective and self-reported PA after 3 and 6 months. Results: While 1270 participants (85.81% of 1480 actual starters) completed the 6-month trial, 1233 (83.31%) self-reported PA at both baseline and month 6, but only 730 (49.32%) had sufficient objective PA data at both time points. For the total cohort after 6 months, a greater improvement in self-reported total PA (P=.02) and PA during leisure (nonsport) (P=.03) was observed in personalized groups compared with the control group. For individuals advised to increase PA, we also observed greater improvements in those two self-reported indices (P=.006 and P=.008, respectively) with increased personalization of the advice (L2 and L3 vs L1). However, there were no significant differences in accelerometer results between personalized and control groups, and no significant effect of adding phenotypic or genotypic information to the tailored feedback at month 3 or 6. After 6 months, there were small but significant improvements in the objectively measured physical activity level (P<.05), moderate PA (P<.01), and sedentary time (P<.001) for individuals advised to increase PA, but these changes were similar across all groups. Conclusions: Different levels of personalization produced similar small changes in objective PA. We found no evidence that personalized advice is more effective than conventional “one size fits all” guidelines to promote changes in PA in our Web-based intervention when PA was measured objectively. Based on self-reports, PA increased to a greater extent with more personalized advice. Thus, it is crucial to measure PA objectively in any PA intervention study

Changes in solar PV output due to water vapour loading in a future climate scenario

Under a future climate, it is shown that the total atmospheric water vapour will increase over present levels. Water vapour has several distinct absorption bands in the visible and near-infrared parts of the spectrum, which is critical for PV conversion. The sensitivity of current world-leading c-Si, thin film and perovskite solar cells to the solar spectrum under different water vapour loadings is investigated. Semiconductors with bandgaps above 1.4 eV are more resilient to increases in atmospheric water vapour due to the avoidance of two large absorption bands in the near-infrared. Global changes in atmospheric water vapour are then taken from the HadGEM2-ES climate model under the RCP8.5 scenario, and used to determine the changes in PV output for clear-sky conditions for crystalline silicon (c-Si) and amorphous silicon (a-Si) solar cells. For some regions of the world, a decrease in power output of up to 3% for clear-sky conditions is seen for the spectral response of the current world-leading c-Si cell due to increasing water vapour, whereas a-Si performs better with a global power output decline of less than 1%