Collective Animal Behavior from Bayesian Estimation and Probability Matching

Animals living in groups make movement decisions that depend, among other factors, on social interactions with other group members. Our present understanding of social rules in animal collectives is based on empirical fits to observations and we lack first-principles approaches that allow their derivation. Here we show that patterns of collective decisions can be derived from the basic ability of animals to make probabilistic estimations in the presence of uncertainty. We build a decision-making model with two stages: Bayesian estimation and probabilistic matching.
In the first stage, each animal makes a Bayesian estimation of which behavior is best to perform taking into account personal information about the environment and social information collected by observing the behaviors of other animals. In the probability matching stage, each animal chooses a behavior with a probability given by the Bayesian estimation that this behavior is the most appropriate one. This model derives very simple rules of interaction in animal collectives that depend only on two types of reliability parameters, one that each animal assigns to the other animals and another given by the quality of the non-social information. We test our model by obtaining theoretically a rich set of observed collective patterns of decisions in three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus, a shoaling fish species. The quantitative link shown between probabilistic estimation and collective rules of behavior allows a better contact with other fields such as foraging, mate selection, neurobiology and psychology, and gives predictions for experiments directly testing the relationship between estimation and collective behavior

Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification. FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach. CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians

A relocatable ocean model in support of environmental emergencies

During the Costa Concordia emergency case, regional, subregional, and relocatable ocean models have been used together with the oil spill model, MEDSLIK-II, to provide ocean currents forecasts, possible oil spill scenarios, and drifters trajectories simulations. The models results together with the evaluation of their performances are presented in this paper. In particular, we focused this work on the implementation of the Interactive Relocatable Nested Ocean Model (IRENOM), based on the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS), for the Costa Concordia emergency and on its validation using drifters released in the area of the accident. It is shown that thanks to the capability of improving easily and quickly its configuration, the IRENOM results are of greater accuracy than the results achieved using regional or subregional model products. The model topography, and to the initialization procedures, and the horizontal resolution are the key model settings to be configured. Furthermore, the IRENOM currents and the MEDSLIK-II simulated trajectories showed to be sensitive to the spatial resolution of the meteorological fields used, providing higher prediction skills with higher resolution wind forcing.MEDESS4MS Project; TESSA Project; MyOcean2 Projectinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Developing a community based psychosocial intervention with older people and third sector workers for anxiety and depression: a qualitative study

Background: One-in-five people in the UK experience anxiety and/or depression in later life. However, anxiety and depression remain poorly detected in older people, particularly in those with chronic physical ill health. In the UK, a stepped care approach, to manage common mental health problems, is advocated which includes service provision from non-statutory organisations (including third/voluntary sector). However, evidence to support such provision, including the most effective interventions, is limited. The qualitative study reported here constitutes the first phase of a feasibility study which aims to assess whether third sector workers can deliver a psychosocial intervention to older people with anxiety and/or depression. The aim of this qualitative study is to explore the views of older people and third sector workers about anxiety and depression among older people in order to refine an intervention to be delivered by third sector workers. Methods: Semi-structured interviews with participants recruited through purposive sampling from third sector groups in North Staffordshire. Interviews were digitally recorded with consent, transcribed and analysed using principles of constant comparison. Results: Nineteen older people and 9 third sector workers were interviewed. Key themes included: multiple forms of loss, mental health as a personal burden to bear, having courage and providing/receiving encouragement, self- worth and the value of group activities, and tensions in existing service provision, including barriers and gaps. Conclusions: The experience of loss was seen as central to feelings of anxiety and depression among community- dwelling older people. This study contributes to the evidence pointing to the scale and severity of mental health needs for some older people which can arise from multiple forms of loss, and which present a significant challenge to health, social care and third sector services. The findings informed development of a psychosocial intervention and training for third sector workers to deliver the intervention

Modelling the regulation of telomere length: the effects of telomerase and G-quadruplex stabilising drugs

Telomeres are guanine-rich sequences at the end of chromosomes which shorten during each replication event and trigger cell cycle arrest and/or controlled death (apoptosis) when reaching a threshold length. The enzyme telomerase replenishes the ends of telomeres and thus prolongs the life span of cells, but also causes cellular immortalisation in human cancer. G-quadruplex (G4) stabilising drugs are a potential anticancer treatment which work by changing the molecular structure of telomeres to inhibit the activity of telomerase. We investigate the dynamics of telomere length in different conformational states, namely t-loops, G-quadruplex structures and those being elongated by telomerase. By formulating deterministic differential equation models we study the effects of various levels of both telomerase and concentrations of a G4-stabilising drug on the distribution of telomere lengths, and analyse how these effects evolve over large numbers of cell generations. As well as calculating numerical solutions, we use quasicontinuum methods to approximate the behaviour of the system over time, and predict the shape of the telomere length distribution. We find those telomerase and G4-concentrations where telomere length maintenance is successfully regulated. Excessively high levels of telomerase lead to continuous telomere lengthening, whereas large concentrations of the drug lead to progressive telomere erosion. Furthermore, our models predict a positively skewed distribution of telomere lengths, that is, telomeres accumulate over lengths shorter than the mean telomere length at equilibrium. Our model results for telomere length distributions of telomerase-positive cells in drug-free assays are in good agreement with the limited amount of experimental data available

Artificial sweeteners inhibit multidrug‐resistant pathogen growth and potentiate antibiotic activity

Disclosure and competing interests statement: Brunel University London has two patents covering the therapeutic use of artificial sweeteners and their use to potentiate antibiotic activity.Data availability The RNA-seq datasets produced in this study (gene expression dataset series titled "Alteration of global transcription by the artifi- cial sweetener acesulfame-K in Acinetobacter baumannii AB5075") are available at the National Center for Biotechnology Information Gene Expression Omnibus public database under accession number GSE199706 (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/geo/query/acc.cgi? acc=GSE199706).Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Antimicrobial resistance is one of the most pressing concerns of our time. The human diet is rich with compounds that alter bacterial gut communities and virulence-associated behaviours, suggesting food additives may be a niche for the discovery of novel anti-virulence compounds. Here, we identify three artificial sweeteners, saccharin, cyclamate and acesulfame-K (ace-K), that have a major growth inhibitory effect on priority pathogens. We further characterise the impact of ace-K on multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii, demonstrating that it can disable virulence behaviours such as biofilm formation, motility and the ability to acquire exogenous antibiotic-resistant genes. Further analysis revealed the mechanism of growth inhibition is through bulge-mediated cell lysis and that cells can be rescued by cation supplementation. Antibiotic sensitivity assays demonstrated that at sub-lethal concentrations, ace-K can resensitise A. baumannii to last resort antibiotics, including carbapenems. Using a novel ex vivo porcine skin wound model, we show that ace-K antimicrobial activity is maintained in the wound microenvironment. Our findings demonstrate the influence of artificial sweeteners on pathogen behaviour and uncover their therapeutic potential.British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy BSAC-2018-0095; NC3Rs PhD Studentship NC/V001582/1; Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council New Investigator Award BB/V007823/1; Academy of Medical Sciences/the Wellcome Trust/the Government Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy/the Bri- tish Heart Foundation/Diabetes UK Springboard Award [SBF006\1040; Research Grant BB/T007168/1 from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council

Changing behaviour 'more or less'-do theories of behaviour inform strategies for implementation and de-implementation? A critical interpretive synthesis

BACKGROUND: Implementing evidence-based care requires healthcare practitioners to do less of some things (de-implementation) and more of others (implementation). Variations in effectiveness of behaviour change interventions may result from failure to consider a distinction between approaches by which behaviour increases and decreases in frequency. The distinction is not well represented in methods for designing interventions. This review aimed to identify whether there is a theoretical rationale to support this distinction. METHODS: Using Critical Interpretative Synthesis, this conceptual review included papers from a broad range of fields (biology, psychology, education, business) likely to report approaches for increasing or decreasing behaviour. Articles were identified from databases using search terms related to theory and behaviour change. Articles reporting changes in frequency of behaviour and explicit use of theory were included. Data extracted were direction of behaviour change, how theory was operationalised, and theory-based recommendations for behaviour change. Analyses of extracted data were conducted iteratively and involved inductive coding and critical exploration of ideas and purposive sampling of additional papers to explore theoretical concepts in greater detail. RESULTS: Critical analysis of 66 papers and their theoretical sources identified three key findings: (1) 9 of the 15 behavioural theories identified do not distinguish between implementation and de-implementation (5 theories were applied to only implementation or de-implementation, not both); (2) a common strategy for decreasing frequency was substituting one behaviour with another. No theoretical basis for this strategy was articulated, nor were methods proposed for selecting appropriate substitute behaviours; (3) Operant Learning Theory makes an explicit distinction between techniques for increasing and decreasing frequency. DISCUSSION: Behavioural theories provide little insight into the distinction between implementation and de-implementation. Operant Learning Theory identified different strategies for implementation and de-implementation, but these strategies may not be acceptable in health systems. Additionally, if behaviour substitution is an approach for de-implementation, further investigation may inform methods or rationale for selecting the substitute behaviour

Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA): end of survey report and data release 2

The Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey is one of the largest contemporary spectroscopic surveys of low-redshift galaxies. Covering an area of ~286 deg^2 (split among five survey regions) down to a limiting magnitude of r < 19.8 mag, we have collected spectra and reliable redshifts for 238,000 objects using the AAOmega spectrograph on the Anglo-Australian Telescope. In addition, we have assembled imaging data from a number of independent surveys in order to generate photometry spanning the wavelength range 1 nm - 1 m. Here we report on the recently completed spectroscopic survey and present a series of diagnostics to assess its final state and the quality of the redshift data. We also describe a number of survey aspects and procedures, or updates thereof, including changes to the input catalogue, redshifting and re-redshifting, and the derivation of ultraviolet, optical and near-infrared photometry. Finally, we present the second public release of GAMA data. In this release we provide input catalogue and targeting information, spectra, redshifts, ultraviolet, optical and near-infrared photometry, single-component S\'ersic fits, stellar masses, H$\alpha$-derived star formation rates, environment information, and group properties for all galaxies with r < 19.0 mag in two of our survey regions, and for all galaxies with r < 19.4 mag in a third region (72,225 objects in total). The database serving these data is available at http://www.gama-survey.org/

A feasibility study for NOn-Traditional providers to support the management of Elderly People with Anxiety and Depression: the NOTEPAD study Protocol

BACKGROUND: Anxiety and depression are common among older people, with up to 20% reporting such symptoms, and the prevalence increases with co-morbid chronic physical health problems. Access to treatment for anxiety and depression in this population is poor due to a combination of factors at the level of patient, practitioner and healthcare system. There is evidence to suggest that older people with anxiety and/or depression may benefit both from one-to-one interventions and group social or educational activities, which reduce loneliness, are participatory and offer some activity. Non-traditional providers (support workers) working within third-sector (voluntary) organisations are a valuable source of expertise within the community but are under-utilised by primary care practitioners. Such a resource could increase access to care, and be less stigmatising and more acceptable for older people. METHODS: The study is in three phases and this paper describes the protocol for phase III, which will evaluate the feasibility of recruiting general practices and patients into the study, and determine whether support workers can deliver the intervention to older people with sufficient fidelity and whether this approach is acceptable to patients, general practitioners and the third-sector providers. Phase III of the NOTEPAD study is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) that is individually randomised. It recruited participants from approximately six general practices in the UK. In total, 100 participants aged 65 years and over who score 10 or more on PHQ9 or GAD7 for anxiety or depression will be recruited and randomised to the intervention or usual general practice care. A mixed methods approach will be used and follow-up will be conducted 12 weeks post-randomisation. DISCUSSION: This study will inform the design and methods of a future full-scale RCT. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN, ID: ISRCTN16318986 . Registered 10 November 2016. The ISRCTN registration is in line with the World Health Organization Trial Registration Data Set. The present paper represents the original version of the protocol. Any changes to the protocol will be communicated to ISRCTN

Modelling the Role of the Hsp70/Hsp90 System in the Maintenance of Protein Homeostasis

Neurodegeneration is an age-related disorder which is characterised by the accumulation of aggregated protein and neuronal cell death. There are many different neurodegenerative diseases which are classified according to the specific proteins involved and the regions of the brain which are affected. Despite individual differences, there are common mechanisms at the sub-cellular level leading to loss of protein homeostasis. The two central systems in protein homeostasis are the chaperone system, which promotes correct protein folding, and the cellular proteolytic system, which degrades misfolded or damaged proteins. Since these systems and their interactions are very complex, we use mathematical modelling to aid understanding of the processes involved. The model developed in this study focuses on the role of Hsp70 (IPR00103) and Hsp90 (IPR001404) chaperones in preventing both protein aggregation and cell death. Simulations were performed under three different conditions: no stress; transient stress due to an increase in reactive oxygen species; and high stress due to sustained increases in reactive oxygen species. The model predicts that protein homeostasis can be maintained during short periods of stress. However, under long periods of stress, the chaperone system becomes overwhelmed and the probability of cell death pathways being activated increases. Simulations were also run in which cell death mediated by the JNK (P45983) and p38 (Q16539) pathways was inhibited. The model predicts that inhibiting either or both of these pathways may delay cell death but does not stop the aggregation process and that eventually cells die due to aggregated protein inhibiting proteasomal function. This problem can be overcome if the sequestration of aggregated protein into inclusion bodies is enhanced. This model predicts responses to reactive oxygen species-mediated stress that are consistent with currently available experimental data. The model can be used to assess specific interventions to reduce cell death due to impaired protein homeostasis