Madagascar corals track sea surface temperature variability in the Agulhas Current core region over the past 334 years

The Agulhas Current (AC) is the strongest western boundary current in the Southern Hemisphere and is key for weather and climate patterns, both regionally and globally. Its heat transfer into both the midlatitude South Indian Ocean and South Atlantic is of global significance. A new composite coral record (Ifaty and Tulear massive Porites corals), is linked to historical AC sea surface temperature (SST) instrumental data, showing robust correlations. The composite coral SST data start in 1660 and comprise 200 years more than the AC instrumental record. Numerical modelling exhibits that this new coral derived SST record is representative for the wider core region of the AC. AC SSTs variabilities show distinct cooling through the Little Ice Age and warming during the late 18th, 19th and 20th century, with significant decadal variability superimposed. Furthermore, the AC SSTs are teleconnected with the broad southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, showing that the AC system is pivotal for inter-ocean heat exchange south of Africa

Western Indian Ocean marine and terrestrial records of climate variability: a review and new concepts on land-ocean interactions since AD 1660

We examine the relationship between three tropical and two subtropical western Indian Ocean coral oxygen isotope time series to surface air temperatures (SAT) and rainfall over India, tropical East Africa and southeast Africa. We review established relationships, provide new concepts with regard to distinct rainfall seasons, and mean annual temperatures. Tropical corals are coherent with SAT over western India and East Africa at interannual and multidecadal periodicities. The subtropical corals correlate with Southeast African SAT at periodicities of 16–30 years. The relationship between the coral records and land rainfall is more complex. Running correlations suggest varying strength of interannual teleconnections between the tropical coral oxygen isotope records and rainfall over equatorial East Africa. The relationship with rainfall over India changed in the 1970s. The subtropical oxygen isotope records are coherent with South African rainfall at interdecadal periodicities. Paleoclimatological reconstructions of land rainfall and SAT reveal that the inferred relationships generally hold during the last 350 years. Thus, the Indian Ocean corals prove invaluable for investigating land–ocean interactions during past centuries

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Three monthly coral Sr/Ca records from the Chagos Archipelago covering the period of 1950-1995 A.D.: reproducibility and implications for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations

In order to assess the fidelity of coral Sr/Ca for quantitative reconstructions of sea surface temperature variations, we have generated three monthly Sr/Ca time series from Porites corals from the lagoon of Peros Banhos (71°E, 5°S, Chagos Archipelago). We find that all three coral Sr/Ca time series are well correlated with instrumental records of sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature. However, the intrinsic variance of the single-core Sr/Ca time series differs from core to core, limiting their use for quantitative estimates of past temperature variations. Averaging the single-core data improves the correlation with instrumental temperature (r > 0.7) and allows accurate estimates of interannual temperature variations (~0.35°C or better). All Sr/Ca time series indicate a shift towards warmer temperatures in the mid-1970s, which coincides with the most recent regime shift in the Pacific Ocean. However, the magnitude of the warming inferred from coral Sr/Ca differs from core to core and ranges from 0.26 to 0.75°C. The composite Sr/Ca record from Peros Banhos clearly captures the major climatic signals in the Indo-Pacific Ocean, i.e. the El Niño–southern oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation. Moreover, composite Sr/Ca is highly correlated with tropical mean temperatures (r = 0.7), suggesting that coral Sr/Ca time series from the tropical Indian Ocean will contribute to multi-proxy reconstructions of tropical mean temperatures

Patterns of Pacific decadal variability recorded by Indian Ocean corals

We investigate Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) signals recorded by two bimonthly resolved coral δ18O series from La Réunion and Ifaty (West Madagascar), Indian Ocean from 1882 to 1993. To isolate the main PDO frequencies, we apply a band pass filter to the time series passing only periodicities from 16 to 28 years. We investigate the covariance patterns of the coral time series with sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. In addition, the empirical orthogonal functions of the filtered SST and SLP fields (single and coupled) are related to the filtered coral times series. The covariance maps show the typical PDO pattern for SST and SLP, confirming the coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Both corals show the strongest signal in boreal summer. The La Réunion (Ifaty) coral better records SST (SLP) than SLP (SST) pattern variability. We suggest that the filtered La Réunion coral δ18O represents δ18O of seawater that varies with the South Equatorial Current, which, in turn, is linked with the SST PDO. The filtered Ifaty coral δ18O represents SST and is remotely linked with the SLP PDO variability. A combined coral record of the Ifaty and La Réunion boreal summer δ18O series explains about 64% of the variance of the coupled SST/SLP PDO time series

Drought tolerant maize for farmer adaptation to drought in sub-Saharan Africa: Determinants of adoption in eastern and southern Africa

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Bmaize is life,^ due to its importance to food security and economic wellbeing. Around 40 % of Africa’s maize-growing area faces occasional drought stress, resulting in yield losses of 10–25 %. Around 25 % of the maize crop suffers frequent drought, with losses of up to half the harvest. To reduce vulnerability and improve food security, the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project has made releases of 160 drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties between 2007 and 2013. These have been tested in experimental and farmers’ fields, and disseminated to farmers in 13 African countries through national agricultural research systems and private seed companies. Yields of the new varieties are superior to those of currently available commercial maize varieties under both stress and optimum growing conditions. Although the benefits of DT maize for African farmers have been repeatedly predicted, realization of those benefits depends on farmer uptake, which has received limited empirical study. We use new plot-level data from surveys of 3,700 farm households in six countries (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to country variation in farmer uptake of DT maize, from 9 % of maize plots in Zimbabwe to 61% in Malawi. The major barriers to adoption include unavailability of improved seed, inadequate information, lack of resources, high seed price, and perceived attributes of different varieties. Based on the results, we recommend that seed companies and agro-dealers ensure adequate supply of DT maize seed in local markets and sell seed in affordable micro-packs (1 or 2 kg). Furthermore, the DTMA project and partners should ramp up promotional efforts to ensure widespread awareness and understanding of the benefits of the new DT maize varieties.283-29