Decline in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate and Subsequent Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease and Mortality

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Risk Factors for Prognosis in Patients With Severely Decreased GFR

Introduction: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (corresponding to CKD stage G4þ) comprise a minority of the overall CKD population but have the highest risk for adverse outcomes. Many CKD G4þ patients are older with multiple comorbidities, which may distort associations between risk factors and clinical outcomes.Methods: We undertook a meta-analysis of risk factors for kidney failure treated with kidney replacement therapy (KRT), cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, and death in participants with CKD G4þ from 28 cohorts (n ¼ 185,024) across the world who were part of the CKD Prognosis Consortium.Results: In the fully adjusted meta-analysis, risk factors associated with KRT were time-varying CVD, male sex, black race, diabetes, lower eGFR, and higher albuminuria and systolic blood pressure. Age was associated with a lower risk of KRT (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.69–0.80) overall, and also in the subgroup of individuals younger than 65 years. The risk factors for CVD events included male sex, history of CVD, diabetes, lower eGFR, higher albuminuria, and the onset of KRT. Systolic blood pressure showed a U-shaped association with CVD events. Risk factors for mortality were similar to those for CVD events but also included smoking. Most risk factors had qualitatively consistent associations across cohorts.Conclusion: Traditional CVD risk factors are of prognostic value in individuals with an eGFR <30 ml/min per 1.73 m2, although the risk estimates vary for kidney and CVD outcomes. These results should encourage interventional studies on correcting risk factors in this high-risk population

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes. An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis

IMPORTANCE: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27 503 140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720 736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9 067 753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. EXPOSURES: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2 (SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2 (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations

Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Albuminuria, and Adverse Outcomes: An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Importance: Chronic kidney disease (low estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] or albuminuria) affects approximately 14% of adults in the US. Objective: To evaluate associations of lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine combined with cystatin C, and more severe albuminuria with adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular outcomes, and other health outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-participant data meta-analysis of 27503140 individuals from 114 global cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine alone) and 720736 individuals from 20 cohorts (eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C) and 9067753 individuals from 114 cohorts (albuminuria) from 1980 to 2021. Exposures: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration 2021 equations for eGFR based on creatinine alone and eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C; and albuminuria estimated as urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR). Main Outcomes and Measures: The risk of kidney failure requiring replacement therapy, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, acute kidney injury, any hospitalization, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and peripheral artery disease. The analyses were performed within each cohort and summarized with random-effects meta-analyses. Results: Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine alone (mean age, 54 years [SD, 17 years]; 51% were women; mean follow-up time, 4.8 years [SD, 3.3 years]), the mean eGFR was 90 mL/min/1.73 m2(SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 11 mg/g (IQR, 8-16 mg/g). Within the population using eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C (mean age, 59 years [SD, 12 years]; 53% were women; mean follow-up time, 10.8 years [SD, 4.1 years]), the mean eGFR was 88 mL/min/1.73 m2(SD, 22 mL/min/1.73 m2) and the median UACR was 9 mg/g (IQR, 6-18 mg/g). Lower eGFR (whether based on creatinine alone or based on creatinine and cystatin C) and higher UACR were each significantly associated with higher risk for each of the 10 adverse outcomes, including those in the mildest categories of chronic kidney disease. For example, among people with a UACR less than 10 mg/g, an eGFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2based on creatinine alone was associated with significantly higher hospitalization rates compared with an eGFR of 90 to 104 mL/min/1.73 m2(adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.2-1.3]; 161 vs 79 events per 1000 person-years; excess absolute risk, 22 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 19-25 events per 1000 person-years]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective analysis of 114 cohorts, lower eGFR based on creatinine alone, lower eGFR based on creatinine and cystatin C, and more severe UACR were each associated with increased rates of 10 adverse outcomes, including adverse kidney outcomes, cardiovascular diseases, and hospitalizations

Relationship of Estimated GFR and Albuminuria to Concurrent Laboratory Abnormalities: An Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis in a Global Consortium

Rationale & Objective: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is complicated by abnormalities that reflect disruption in filtration, tubular, and endocrine functions of the kidney. Our aim was to explore the relationship of specific laboratory result abnormalities and hypertension with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria CKD staging framework. Study Design: Cross-sectional individual participant-level analyses in a global consortium. Setting & Study Populations: 17 CKD and 38 general population and high-risk cohorts. Selection Criteria for Studies: Cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data for eGFR and albuminuria, as well as a measurement of hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, or calcium, or hypertension. Data Extraction: Data were obtained and analyzed between July 2015 and January 2018. Analytical Approach: We modeled the association of eGFR and albuminuria with hemoglobin, bicarbonate, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, potassium, and calcium values using linear regression and with hypertension and categorical definitions of each abnormality using logistic regression. Results were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: The CKD cohorts (n = 254,666 participants) were 27% women and 10% black, with a mean age of 69 (SD, 12) years. The general population/high-risk cohorts (n = 1,758,334) were 50% women and 2% black, with a mean age of 50 (16) years. There was a strong graded association between lower eGFR and all laboratory result abnormalities (ORs ranging from 3.27 [95% CI, 2.68-3.97] to 8.91 [95% CI, 7.22-10.99] comparing eGFRs of 15 to 29 with eGFRs of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2), whereas albuminuria had equivocal or weak associations with abnormalities (ORs ranging from 0.77 [95% CI, 0.60-0.99] to 1.92 [95% CI, 1.65-2.24] comparing urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 300 vs < 30 mg/g). Limitations: Variations in study era, health care delivery system, typical diet, and laboratory assays. Conclusions: Lower eGFR was strongly associated with higher odds of multiple laboratory result abnormalities. Knowledge of risk associations might help guide management in the heterogeneous group of patients with CKD. © 2018 National Kidney Foundation, Inc

Current CKD Definition Takes into Account Both Relative and Absolute Risk.

Delanaye et al.1 propose that GFR thresholds to define CKD should depend on age. Specifically, people aged≥65 years with GFR 45–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and albumin-creatinine ratio<30 mg/g should not be classified as having CKD. This is not a new proposal. It has been discussed many times, including by the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative in 2002 and Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) work groups in 2009 and 2012.2 Each time, the consensus was that the GFR threshold for the definition of CKD should be age-independent. [...

Past Decline Versus Current eGFR and Subsequent ESRD Risk

eGFR is a robust predictor of ESR Drisk. However, the prognostic information gained from the past trajectory (slope) beyond that of the current eGFR is unclear. We examined 22 cohorts to determine the association of past slopes and current eGFR level with subsequent ESRD. We modeled hazard ratios as a spline function of slopes, adjusting for demographic variables, eGFR, and comorbidities. We used random effects meta-analyses to combine results across studies stratified by cohort type. We calculated the absolute risk of ESRD at 5 years after the last eGFR using the weighted average baseline risk. Overall, 1,080,223 participants experienced 5163 ESRD events during a mean follow-up of 2.0 years. In CKD cohorts, a slope of 26 versus 0 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year over the previous 3 years (a decline of 18 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) versus no decline) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of ESRD of 2.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.88 to 2.76). In contrast, a current eGFR of 30 versus 50 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (a difference of 20 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of 19.9 (95% confidence interval, 13.6 to 29.1). Past decline contributed more to the absolute risk of ESRD at lower than higher levels of current eGFR. In conclusion, during a follow-up of 2 years, current eGFR associates more strongly with future ESRD risk than the magnitude of past eGFR decline, but both contribute substantially to the risk of ESRD, especially at eGF

A Meta-analysis of the Association of Estimated GFR, Albuminuria, Age, Race, and Sex With Acute Kidney Injury.

BackgroundAcute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious global public health problem. We aimed to quantify the risk of AKI associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), albuminuria (albumin-creatinine ratio [ACR]), age, sex, and race (African American and white).Study designCollaborative meta-analysis.Setting &amp; population8 general-population cohorts (1,285,049 participants) and 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) cohorts (79,519 participants).Selection criteria for studiesAvailable eGFR, ACR, and 50 or more AKI events.PredictorsAge, sex, race, eGFR, urine ACR, and interactions.OutcomeHospitalized with or for AKI, using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HRs of AKI and random-effects meta-analysis to pool results.Results16,480 (1.3%) general-population cohort participants had AKI over a mean follow-up of 4 years; 2,087 (2.6%) CKD participants had AKI over a mean follow-up of 1 year. Lower eGFR and higher ACR were strongly associated with AKI. Compared with eGFR of 80mL/min/1.73m(2), the adjusted HR of AKI at eGFR of 45mL/min/1.73m(2) was 3.35 (95% CI, 2.75-4.07). Compared with ACR of 5mg/g, the risk of AKI at ACR of 300mg/g was 2.73 (95% CI, 2.18-3.43). Older age was associated with higher risk of AKI, but this effect was attenuated with lower eGFR or higher ACR. Male sex was associated with higher risk of AKI, with a slight attenuation in lower eGFR but not in higher ACR. African Americans had higher AKI risk at higher levels of eGFR and most levels of ACR.LimitationsOnly 2 general-population cohorts could contribute to analyses by race; AKI identified by diagnostic code.ConclusionsReduced eGFR and increased ACR are consistent strong risk factors for AKI, whereas associations of AKI with age, sex, and race may be weaker in more advanced stages of CKD