Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

Colour assessment outcomes – a new approach to grading the severity of color vision loss

INTRODUCTION: Recent studies have shown that a significant percentage of subjects with anomalous, congenital trichromacy can perform the suprathreshold, colour-related tasks encountered in many occupations with the same accuracy as normal trichromats. In the absence of detailed, occupation-specific studies, an alternative approach is to make use of new findings and the statistical outcomes of past practices that have been considered safe to produce graded, justifiable categories of colour vision that can be enforced. METHODS: We analyzed traditional color assessment outcomes and measured severity of colour vision loss using the CAD test in 1363 subjects (336 normals, 705 deutan, 319 protan and 3 tritan). The severity of colour vision loss was measured in each subject and statistical, pass / fail outcomes established for each of the most commonly used, conventional colour assessment tests and protocols. RESULTS: The correlation between the number of Ishihara (IH) test plates subjects fail and the severity of RG colour vision loss was very poor. The 38 plates IH test has high sensitivity when no errors are allowed (i.e., only 0.71% deutans and 0.63% protans pass). Protocols based on zero errors are uncommon since 18.15% of normal trichromats fail. The most common protocols employ either the 24 or the 14 plates editions with two or less errors. These protocols pass almost all normal trichromats, but the deutans and some protans that also pass (when two or less errors are allowed) can be severely deficient. This is simply because the most challenging plates have not been included in the 24 and 14 plates editions. As a result, normals no longer fail, but the deutans and protans that pass have more severe loss of colour vision since they fail less challenging plates. The severity of colour vision loss was measured in each subject and statistical, pass / fail outcomes established for each of the most commonly used, conventional colour assessment tests and protocols. DISCUSSION: Historical evidence and new findings that relate severity of loss to the effective use of colour signals in a number of tasks provide the basis for a new colour grading system based on six categories. A single colour assessment test is needed to establish the applicant’s Colour Vision category which can range from ‘supernormal’ (CV0), for the most stringent, colour-demanding tasks, to ‘severe colour deficiency’, when red / green colour vision is either absent or extremely weak (CV5)

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Interaction of Temperature and Light in the Development of Freezing Tolerance in Plants

Abstract Freezing tolerance is the result of a wide range of physical and biochemical processes, such as the induction of antifreeze proteins, changes in membrane composition, the accumulation of osmoprotectants, and changes in the redox status, which allow plants to function at low temperatures. Even in frost-tolerant species, a certain period of growth at low but nonfreezing temperatures, known as frost or cold hardening, is required for the development of a high level of frost hardiness. It has long been known that frost hardening at low temperature under low light intensity is much less effective than under normal light conditions; it has also been shown that elevated light intensity at normal temperatures may partly replace the cold-hardening period. Earlier results indicated that cold acclimation reflects a response to a chloroplastic redox signal while the effects of excitation pressure extend beyond photosynthetic acclimation, influencing plant morphology and the expression of certain nuclear genes involved in cold acclimation. Recent results have shown that not only are parameters closely linked to the photosynthetic electron transport processes affected by light during hardening at low temperature, but light may also have an influence on the expression level of several other cold-related genes; several cold-acclimation processes can function efficiently only in the presence of light. The present review provides an overview of mechanisms that may explain how light improves the freezing tolerance of plants during the cold-hardening period

Association of food security status with overweight and dietary intake: exploration of White British and Pakistani-origin families in the Born in Bradford cohort.

BACKGROUND: Food insecurity has been associated with dietary intake and weight status in UK adults and children although results have been mixed and ethnicity has not been explored. We aimed to compare prevalence and trajectories of weight and dietary intakes among food secure and insecure White British and Pakistani-origin families. METHODS: At 12 months postpartum, mothers in the Born in Bradford cohort completed a questionnaire on food security status and a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) assessing their child's intake in the previous month; at 18 months postpartum, mothers completed a short-form FFQ assessing dietary intake in the previous 12 months. Weights and heights of mothers and infants were assessed at 12-, 24-, and 36-months postpartum, with an additional measurement of children taken at 4-5 years. Associations between food security status and dietary intakes were assessed using Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney for continuous variables and χ2 or Fisher's exact tests for categorical variables. Quantile and logistic regression were used to determine dietary intakes adjusting for mother's age. Linear mixed effects models were used to assess longitudinal changes in body mass index (BMI) in mothers and BMI z-scores in children. RESULTS: At 12 months postpartum, White British mothers reported more food insecurity than Pakistani-origin mothers (11% vs 7%; p < 0.01) and more food insecure mothers were overweight. Between 12 and 36 months postpartum, BMI increased more among food insecure Pakistani-origin mothers (β = 0.77 units, [95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.40, 1.10]) than food secure (β = 0.44 units, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.55). This was also found in Pakistani-origin children (BMI z-score: food insecure β = 0.40 units, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.59; food secure β = 0.25 units, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.29). No significant increases in BMI were observed for food secure or insecure White British mothers while BMI z-score increased by 0.17 (95% CI: 0.13, 0.21) for food secure White British children. Food insecure mothers and children had dietary intakes of poorer quality, with fewer vegetables and higher consumption of sugar-sweetened drinks. CONCLUSIONS: Food security status is associated with body weight and dietary intakes differentially by ethnicity. These are important considerations for developing targeted interventions

Sex-specific disruption of murine midbrain astrocytic and dopaminergic developmental trajectories following antenatal GC treatment

The mammalian midbrain dopaminergic systems arising in the substantia nigra pars compacta (SNc) and ventral tegmental area (VTA) are critical for coping behaviours and are implicated in neuropsychiatric disorders where early life challenges comprise significant risk factors. Here, we aimed to advance our hypothesis that glucocorticoids (GCs), recognised key players in neurobiological programming, target development within these systems, with a novel focus on the astrocytic population. Mice received antenatal GC treatment (AGT) by including the synthetic GC, dexamethasone, in the mothers' drinking water on gestational days 16-19; controls received normal drinking water. Analyses of regional shapes and volumes of the adult SNc and VTA demonstrated that AGT induced long-term, dose-dependent, structural changes that were accompanied by profound effects on astrocytes (doubling/tripling of numbers and/or density). Additionally, AGT induced long-term changes in the population size and distribution of SNc/VTA dopaminergic neurons, confirming and extending our previous observations made in rats. Furthermore, glial/neuronal structural remodelling was sexually dimorphic and depended on the AGT dose and sub-region of the SNc/VTA. Investigations within the neonatal brain revealed that these long-term organisational effects of AGT depend, at least in part, on targeting perinatal processes that determine astrocyte density and programmed cell death in dopaminergic neurons. Collectively, our characterisation of enduring, AGT-induced, sex-specific cytoarchitectural disturbances suggests novel mechanistic links for the strong association between early environmental challenge (inappropriate exposure to excess GCs) and vulnerability to developing aberrant behaviours in later life, with translational implications for dopamine-associated disorders (such as schizophrenia, ADHD, autism, depression), which typically show a sex bia

Limited effect of chronic valproic acid treatment in a mouse model of Machado-Joseph disease

Machado-Joseph disease (MJD) is an inherited neurodegenerative disease, caused by a CAG repeat expansion within the coding region of ATXN3 gene, and which currently lacks effective treatment. In this work we tested the therapeutic efficacy of chronic treatment with valproic acid (VPA) (200mg/kg), a compound with known neuroprotection activity, and previously shown to be effective in cell, fly and nematode models of MJD. We show that chronic VPA treatment in the CMVMJD135 mouse model had limited effects in the motor deficits of these mice, seen mostly at late stages in the motor swimming, beam walk, rotarod and spontaneous locomotor activity tests, and did not modify the ATXN3 inclusion load and astrogliosis in affected brain regions. However, VPA chronic treatment was able to increase GRP78 protein levels at 30 weeks of age, one of its known neuroprotective effects, confirming target engagement. In spite of limited results, the use of another dosage of VPA or of VPA in a combined therapy with molecules targeting other pathways, cannot be excluded as potential strategies for MJD therapeuticsPM received funding from Ataxia UK Grant (Project: Pharmacologic therapy for Machado-Joseph disease: from a C. elegans drug screen to a mouse model validation). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio