Investigating Inflation Dynamics and Structural Change with an Adaptive ARFIMA Approach

Previous models of monthly CPI inflation time series have focused on possible regime shifts, non-linearities and the feature of long memory. This paper proposes a new time series model, named Adaptive ARFIMA; which appears well suited to describe inflation and potentially other economic time series data. The Adaptive ARFIMA model includes a time dependent intercept term which follows a Flexible Fourier Form. The model appears to be capable of succesfully dealing with various forms of breaks and discontinities in the conditional mean of a time series. Simulation evidence justifies estimation by approximate MLE and model specfication through robust inference based on QMLE. The Adaptive ARFIMA model when supplemented with conditional variance models is found to provide a good representation of the G7 monthly CPI inflation series.ARFIMA; FIGARCH, long memory, structural change, inflation, G7.

Leading Twist Amplitudes for Exclusive Neutrino Interactions in the Deeply Virtual Limit

Neutrino scattering on nucleons in the regime of deeply virtual kinematics is studied both in the charged and the neutral electroweak sectors using a formalism developed by Blumlein, Robaschik, Geyer and Collaborators for the analysis of the Virtual Compton amplitude in the generalized Bjorken region. We discuss the structure of the leading twist amplitudes of the process.Comment: 14 pages, 1 fig revised final version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Comment on the choice of time in a two-component formulation of the Wheeler--DeWitt equation

The two-component formalism in quantum cosmology is revisited with a particular emphasis on the identification of time. Its relation with the appearance of imaginary eigenvalues is established. It is explicitly shown how a good choice of the global time prevents this peculiarity.Comment: 8 pages; version accepted for publication in Int. J. Mod. Phys.

Electromagnetic Productions of KLambda and KSigma on the Nucleons

We briefly review the progress and problems in the electromagnetic production of KLambda on the nucleon. The problem of the data discrepancy in this channel as well as the corresponding physics consequence are highlighted. We also discuss the effect of the new beam-recoil polarization data Cx and Cz on our analysis. For this purpose we use the isobar model Kaon-Maid and a recent multipoles model that can describe recent experimental data. We also present a new multipoles model for the KSigma channels to complete our analysis.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, invited talk at 6th International Conference on Perspectives in Hadronic Physics, Trieste, Italy, 12-16 May 200

Modeling Long Memory and Structural Breaks in Conditional Variances: an Adaptive FIGARCH Approach

This paper introduces a new long memory volatility process, denoted by Adaptive FIGARCH, or A-FIGARCH, which is designed to account for both long memory and structural change in the conditional variance process. Structural change is modeled by allowing the intercept to follow a slowly varying function, speci?ed by Gallant (1984)'s flexible functional form. A Monte Carlo study ?nds that the A-FIGARCH model outperforms the standard FIGARCH model when structural change is present, and performs at least as well in the absence of structural instability. An empirical application to stock market volatility is also included to illustrate the usefulness of the technique.FIGARCH, long memory, structural change, stock market volatility.

Radiative observables for linearized gravity on asymptotically flat spacetimes and their boundary induced states

We discuss the quantization of linearized gravity on globally hyperbolic, asymptotically flat, vacuum spacetimes and the construction of distinguished states which are both of Hadamard form and invariant under the action of all bulk isometries. The procedure, we follow, consists of looking for a realization of the observables of the theory as a sub-algebra of an auxiliary, non-dynamical algebra constructed on future null infinity $\Im^+$. The applicability of this scheme is tantamount to proving that a solution of the equations of motion for linearized gravity can be extended smoothly to $\Im^+$. This has been claimed to be possible provided that a suitable gauge fixing condition, first written by Geroch and Xanthopoulos, is imposed. We review its definition critically showing that there exists a previously unnoticed obstruction in its implementation leading us to introducing the concept of radiative observables. These constitute an algebra for which a Hadamard state induced from null infinity and invariant under the action of all spacetime isometries exists and it is explicitly constructed.Comment: 31 pages, added reference

The Welfare Impact of Reducing Choice in Medicare Part D: A Comparison of Two Regulation Strategies

Medicare’s prescription drug benefit (Part D) has been its largest expansion of benefits since 1965. Since the implementation of Part D, many regulatory proposals have been advanced in order to improve this government-created market. Among the most debated are proposals to limit the number of options, in response to concerns that there are “too many” plans. In this paper we study the welfare impact of two feasible approaches (of similar magnitude) toward limiting the number of Part D plans: reducing the maximum number of plans each firm can offer per region and removing plans that provide doughnut hole coverage. To this end, we propose and estimate a model of market equilibrium, which we later use to evaluate the impact of regulating down the number of Part D plans. Our counterfactuals provide an important assessment of the losses to consumers (and producers) resulting from government limitations on choice. These losses must be weighed against the widely discussed expected gains due to reduced search costs from limiting options. We find that the annual search costs should be at least two thirds of the average monthly premium in order to justify a regulation that allows only two plans per firm. However, this number would be substantially lower if the limitation in the number of plans is coupled with a decrease in product differentiation (e.g., by removing plans that cover the doughnut hole). For validation purposes, we also assess the impact of a recent major merger, and find that our model performs very well out of sample.Medicare Part D, regulation, number of plans, product differentiation, discrete choice