Methodology for eliciting, encoding and simulating human decision making behaviour

Agent-based models (ABM) are an increasingly important research tool for describing and predicting interactions among humans and their environment. A key challenge for such models is the ability to faithfully represent human decision making with respect to observed behaviour. This thesis aims to address this challenge by developing a methodology for empirical measurement and simulation of decision making in humanenvironment systems. The methodology employs the Beliefs-Desires-Intentions (BDI) model of human reasoning to directly translate empirically measured decision data into artificial agents, based on sound theoretical principles. A common simulated decision environment is used for both eliciting human decision making behaviour, and validating artificial agents. Using this approach facilitates the collection of decision making narratives by way of participatory simulation, and promotes a fair comparison of real and modelled decision making. The methodology is applied in two case studies: One to carry out a trial involving human subjects solving an abstract land-use problem, and another to examine the feasibility of up-scaling the methodology to a real agricultural scenario—dairy farming. Results from the experiments indicate that the BDI-based methodology achieved reasonably direct encoding of decision making behaviour from elicited human narratives. The main limitations found with the technique are: (1) the significant use of subjects’ time required to elicit their decision making behaviour; (2) the significant programming effort required; and (3) the challenge of aggregating behaviour from multiple subjects into a generalised decision making model. In spite of its limitations, BDI has shown its strengths as a tool for empirical analysis and simulation of decision making in research of human-environment systems

Population gene introgression and high genome plasticity for the zoonotic pathogen Streptococcus agalactiae

The influence that bacterial adaptation (or niche partitioning) within species has on gene spillover and transmission among bacteria populations occupying different niches is not well understood. Streptococcus agalactiae is an important bacterial pathogen that has a taxonomically diverse host range making it an excellent model system to study these processes. Here we analyze a global set of 901 genome sequences from nine diverse host species to advance our understanding of these processes. Bayesian clustering analysis delineated twelve major populations that closely aligned with niches. Comparative genomics revealed extensive gene gain/loss among populations and a large pan-genome of 9,527 genes, which remained open and was strongly partitioned among niches. As a result, the biochemical characteristics of eleven populations were highly distinctive (significantly enriched). Positive selection was detected and biochemical characteristics of the dispensable genes under selection were enriched in ten populations. Despite the strong gene partitioning, phylogenomics detected gene spillover. In particular, tetracycline resistance (which likely evolved in the human-associated population) from humans to bovine, canines, seals, and fish, demonstrating how a gene selected in one host can ultimately be transmitted into another, and biased transmission from humans to bovines was confirmed with a Bayesian migration analysis. Our findings show high bacterial genome plasticity acting in balance with selection pressure from distinct functional requirements of niches that is associated with an extensive and highly partitioned dispensable genome, likely facilitating continued and expansive adaptation

Diversity of methanogens and sulfate-reducing bacteria in the interfaces of five deep-sea anoxic brines of the Red Sea

Oceanic deep hypersaline anoxic basins (DHABs) are characterized by drastic changes in physico-chemical conditions in the transition from overlaying seawater to brine body. Brine-seawater interfaces (BSIs) of several DHABs across the Mediterranean Sea have been shown to possess methanogenic and sulfate-reducing activities, yet no systematic studies have been conducted to address the potential functional diversity of methanogenic and sulfate-reducing communities in the Red Sea DHABs. Here, we evaluated the relative abundance of Bacteria and Archaea using quantitative PCR and conducted phylogenetic analyses of nearly full-length 16S rRNA genes as well as functional marker genes encoding the alpha subunits of methyl-coenzyme M reductase (mcrA) and dissimilatory sulfite reductase (dsrA). Bacteria predominated over Archaea in most locations, the majority of which were affiliated with Deltaproteobacteria, while Thaumarchaeota were the most prevalent Archaea in all sampled locations. The upper convective layers of Atlantis II Deep, which bear increasingly harsh environmental conditions, were dominated by members of the class Thermoplasmata (Marine Benthic Group E and Mediterranean Sea Brine Lakes Group 1). Our study revealed unique microbial compositions, the presence of niche-specific groups, and collectively, a higher diversity of sulfate-reducing communities compared to methanogenic communities in all five studied locations

Designing indicators for assessing the effects of marine protected areas on coral reef ecosystems : a multidisciplinary standpoint

The present paper aims at identifying and assessing indicators of the effects of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) in coral reef regions, based on a bibliography review in ecology, economics and social sciences. First the various effects Studied within each of these domains and the variables used to measure them were censused. Potential ecological indicators were assessed through their link with the question used (here termed "relevance") and their "effectiveness" which encompasses the issues of precision, accuracy and statistical power. Relevance and effectiveness were respectively measured by the frequency of use of each indicator and the proportion of significant results in the reviewed articles. For social and economic effects, the approach was not possible due to the low number of references: we thus discussed the issue of finding appropriate indicators for those fields. Results indicate: 1- the unbalance in literature between disciplines: 2- the need for protocols and methodologies which include controls in order to assess MPA effects: 3- an important proportion of ecological indicators with low effectiveness: 4- the large number of ecological effects still not studied or not demonstrated at present

Practicing convict criminology: lessons learned from British academic activism

Joanne Belknap’s recent ASC presidential address included a critique of Convict Criminology’s activism. A number of concerns were provided, although of particular importance here are, first, Belknap’s concerns regarding the absence of ‘marginalized voices’ in the Convict Criminology network. Second, the issue of defining how non-con academics function as Convict Criminology group members. This paper responds to these criticisms. Specifically, we discuss the question of ‘representation’ in BCC and our attempts to remedy this issue. We also draw attention to the academic activism that British Convict Criminology is conducting in Europe. This includes a detailed discussion of the collaborative research-activist activities that involve non-con as well as ex-con academic network members. We demonstrate how these collaborations explain the vital group membership role that non-con academics assume in the activism of Convict Criminology

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Severe early onset preeclampsia: short and long term clinical, psychosocial and biochemical aspects

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy specific disorder commonly defined as de novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks gestational age. It occurs in approximately 3-5% of pregnancies and it is still a major cause of both foetal and maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide1. As extensive research has not yet elucidated the aetiology of preeclampsia, there are no rational preventive or therapeutic interventions available. The only rational treatment is delivery, which benefits the mother but is not in the interest of the foetus, if remote from term. Early onset preeclampsia (<32 weeks’ gestational age) occurs in less than 1% of pregnancies. It is, however often associated with maternal morbidity as the risk of progression to severe maternal disease is inversely related with gestational age at onset2. Resulting prematurity is therefore the main cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in patients with severe preeclampsia3. Although the discussion is ongoing, perinatal survival is suggested to be increased in patients with preterm preeclampsia by expectant, non-interventional management. This temporising treatment option to lengthen pregnancy includes the use of antihypertensive medication to control hypertension, magnesium sulphate to prevent eclampsia and corticosteroids to enhance foetal lung maturity4. With optimal maternal haemodynamic status and reassuring foetal condition this results on average in an extension of 2 weeks. Prolongation of these pregnancies is a great challenge for clinicians to balance between potential maternal risks on one the eve hand and possible foetal benefits on the other. Clinical controversies regarding prolongation of preterm preeclamptic pregnancies still exist – also taking into account that preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the Netherlands5 - a debate which is even more pronounced in very preterm pregnancies with questionable foetal viability6-9. Do maternal risks of prolongation of these very early pregnancies outweigh the chances of neonatal survival? Counselling of women with very early onset preeclampsia not only comprises of knowledge of the outcome of those particular pregnancies, but also knowledge of outcomes of future pregnancies of these women is of major clinical importance. This thesis opens with a review of the literature on identifiable risk factors of preeclampsia

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Measurements of the pp → ZZ production cross section and the Z → 4ℓ branching fraction, and constraints on anomalous triple gauge couplings at √s = 13 TeV

Four-lepton production in proton-proton collisions, pp -> (Z/gamma*)(Z/gamma*) -> 4l, where l = e or mu, is studied at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb(-1). The ZZ production cross section, sigma(pp -> ZZ) = 17.2 +/- 0.5 (stat) +/- 0.7 (syst) +/- 0.4 (theo) +/- 0.4 (lumi) pb, measured using events with two opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs produced in the mass region 60 4l) = 4.83(-0.22)(+0.23) (stat)(-0.29)(+0.32) (syst) +/- 0.08 (theo) +/- 0.12(lumi) x 10(-6) for events with a four-lepton invariant mass in the range 80 4GeV for all opposite-sign, same-flavor lepton pairs. The results agree with standard model predictions. The invariant mass distribution of the four-lepton system is used to set limits on anomalous ZZZ and ZZ. couplings at 95% confidence level: -0.0012 < f(4)(Z) < 0.0010, -0.0010 < f(5)(Z) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(4)(gamma) < 0.0013, -0.0012 < f(5)(gamma) < 0.0013