Bayesian Methods for Exoplanet Science

Exoplanet research is carried out at the limits of the capabilities of current telescopes and instruments. The studied signals are weak, and often embedded in complex systematics from instrumental, telluric, and astrophysical sources. Combining repeated observations of periodic events, simultaneous observations with multiple telescopes, different observation techniques, and existing information from theory and prior research can help to disentangle the systematics from the planetary signals, and offers synergistic advantages over analysing observations separately. Bayesian inference provides a self-consistent statistical framework that addresses both the necessity for complex systematics models, and the need to combine prior information and heterogeneous observations. This chapter offers a brief introduction to Bayesian inference in the context of exoplanet research, with focus on time series analysis, and finishes with an overview of a set of freely available programming libraries.Comment: Invited revie

EFT beyond the horizon: stochastic inflation and how primordial quantum fluctuations go classical

We identify the effective theory describing inflationary super-Hubble scales and show it to be a special case of effective field theories appropriate to open systems. Open systems allow information to be exchanged between the degrees of freedom of interest and those that are integrated out, such as for particles moving through a fluid. Strictly speaking they cannot in general be described by an effective lagrangian; rather the appropriate `low-energy' limit is instead a Lindblad equation describing the evolution of the density matrix of the slow degrees of freedom. We derive the equation relevant to super-Hubble modes of quantum fields in near-de Sitter spacetimes and derive two implications. We show the evolution of the diagonal density-matrix elements quickly approaches the Fokker-Planck equation of Starobinsky's stochastic inflationary picture. This provides an alternative first-principles derivation of this picture's stochastic noise and drift, as well as its leading corrections. (An application computes the noise for systems with a sub-luminal sound speed.) We argue that the presence of interactions drives the off-diagonal density-matrix elements to zero in the field basis. This shows why the field basis is the `pointer basis' for the decoherence of primordial quantum fluctuations while they are outside the horizon, thus allowing them to re-enter as classical fluctuations, as assumed when analyzing CMB data. The decoherence process is efficient, occurring after several Hubble times even for interactions as weak as gravitational-strength. Crucially, the details of the interactions largely control only the decoherence time and not the nature of the final late-time stochastic state, much as interactions can control the equilibration time for thermal systems but are largely irrelevant to the properties of the resulting equilibrium state

Vacuum Stability, Perturbativity, and Scalar Singlet Dark Matter

We analyze the one-loop vacuum stability and perturbativity bounds on a singlet extension of the Standard Model (SM) scalar sector containing a scalar dark matter candidate. We show that the presence of the singlet-doublet quartic interaction relaxes the vacuum stability lower bound on the SM Higgs mass as a function of the cutoff and lowers the corresponding upper bound based on perturbativity considerations. We also find that vacuum stability requirements may place a lower bound on the singlet dark matter mass for given singlet quartic self coupling, leading to restrictions on the parameter space consistent with the observed relic density. We argue that discovery of a light singlet scalar dark matter particle could provide indirect information on the singlet quartic self-coupling.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figures; v2 - fixed minor typos; v3 - added to text discussions of other references, changed coloring of figures for easier black and white viewin

On the Perturbative Stability of Quantum Field Theories in de Sitter Space

We use a field theoretic generalization of the Wigner-Weisskopf method to study the stability of the Bunch-Davies vacuum state for a massless, conformally coupled interacting test field in de Sitter space. We find that in $\lambda \phi^4$ theory the vacuum does {\em not} decay, while in non-conformally invariant models, the vacuum decays as a consequence of a vacuum wave function renormalization that depends \emph{singularly} on (conformal) time and is proportional to the spatial volume. In a particular regularization scheme the vacuum wave function renormalization is the same as in Minkowski spacetime, but in terms of the \emph{physical volume}, which leads to an interpretation of the decay. A simple example of the impact of vacuum decay upon a non-gaussian correlation is discussed. Single particle excitations also decay into two particle states, leading to particle production that hastens the exiting of modes from the de Sitter horizon resulting in the production of \emph{entangled superhorizon pairs} with a population consistent with unitary evolution. We find a non-perturbative, self-consistent "screening" mechanism that shuts off vacuum decay asymptotically, leading to a stationary vacuum state in a manner not unlike the approach to a fixed point in the space of states.Comment: 36 pages, 4 figures. Version to appear in JHEP, more explanation

Climate-sensitive health priorities in Nunatsiavut, Canada

Background: This exploratory study used participatory methods to identify, characterize, and rank climate-sensitive health priorities in Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada. Methods: A mixed method study design was used and involved collecting both qualitative and quantitative data at regional, community, and individual levels. In-depth interviews with regional health representatives were conducted throughout Nunatsiavut (n = 11). In addition, three PhotoVoice workshops were held with Rigolet community members (n = 11), where participants took photos of areas, items, or concepts that expressed how climate change is impacting their health. The workshop groups shared their photographs, discussed the stories and messages behind them, and then grouped photos into re-occurring themes. Two community surveys were administered in Rigolet to capture data on observed climatic and environmental changes in the area, and perceived impacts on health, wellbeing, and lifestyles (n = 187). Results: Climate-sensitive health pathways were described in terms of inter-relationships between environmental and social determinants of Inuit health. The climate-sensitive health priorities for the region included food security, water security, mental health and wellbeing, new hazards and safety concerns, and health services and delivery. Conclusions: The results highlight several climate-sensitive health priorities that are specific to the Nunatsiavut region, and suggest approaching health research and adaptation planning from an EcoHealth perspective

A comprehensive 1000 Genomes-based genome-wide association meta-analysis of coronary artery disease

Existing knowledge of genetic variants affecting risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) is largely based on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) analysis of common SNPs. Leveraging phased haplotypes from the 1000 Genomes Project, we report a GWAS meta-analysis of 185 thousand CAD cases and controls, interrogating 6.7 million common (MAF>0.05) as well as 2.7 million low frequency (0.005<MAF<0.05) variants. In addition to confirmation of most known CAD loci, we identified 10 novel loci, eight additive and two recessive, that contain candidate genes that newly implicate biological processes in vessel walls. We observed intra-locus allelic heterogeneity but little evidence of low frequency variants with larger effects and no evidence of synthetic association. Our analysis provides a comprehensive survey of the fine genetic architecture of CAD showing that genetic susceptibility to this common disease is largely determined by common SNPs of small effect siz

Search for the Decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}

Using the CLEO-II data set we have searched for the Cabibbo-suppressed decays B^0 -> D^{(*)+} D^{(*)-}. For the decay B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}, we observe one candidate signal event, with an expected background of 0.022 +/- 0.011 events. This yield corresponds to a branching fraction of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) = (5.3^{+7.1}_{-3.7}(stat) +/- 1.0(syst)) x 10^{-4} and an upper limit of Br(B^0 -> D^{*+} D^{*-}) D^{*\pm} D^\mp and B^0 -> D^+ D^-, no significant excess of signal above the expected background level is seen, and we calculate the 90% CL upper limits on the branching fractions to be Br(B^0 -> D^{*\pm} D^\mp) D^+ D^-) < 1.2 x 10^{-3}.Comment: 12 page postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Improved Measurement of the Pseudoscalar Decay Constant fDsf_{D_{s}}

We present a new determination of the Ds decay constant, f_{Ds} using 5 million continuum charm events obtained with the CLEO II detector. Our value is derived from our new measured ratio of widths for Ds -> mu nu/Ds -> phi pi of 0.173+/- 0.021 +/- 0.031. Taking the branching ratio for Ds -> phi pi as (3.6 +/- 0.9)% from the PDG, we extract f_{Ds} = (280 +/- 17 +/- 25 +/- 34){MeV}. We compare this result with various model calculations.Comment: 23 page postscript file, postscript file also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Transactivation of EGFR by LPS induces COX-2 expression in enterocytes

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is the leading cause of gastrointestinal morbidity and mortality in preterm infants. NEC is characterized by an exaggerated inflammatory response to bacterial flora leading to bowel necrosis. Bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS) mediates inflammation through TLR4 activation and is a key molecule in the pathogenesis of NEC. However, LPS also induces cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), which promotes intestinal barrier restitution through stimulation of intestinal cell survival, proliferation, and migration. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) activation prevents experimental NEC and may play a critical role in LPS-stimulated COX-2 production. We hypothesized that EGFR is required for LPS induction of COX-2 expression. Our data show that inhibiting EGFR kinase activity blocks LPS-induced COX-2 expression in small intestinal epithelial cells. LPS induction of COX-2 requires Src-family kinase signaling while LPS transactivation of EGFR requires matrix metalloprotease (MMP) activity. EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors block LPS stimulation of mitogen-activated protein kinase ERK, suggesting an important role of the MAPK/ERK pathway in EGFR-mediated COX-2 expression. LPS stimulates proliferation of IEC-6 cells, but this stimulation is inhibited with either the EGFR kinase inhibitor AG1478, or the selective COX-2 inhibitor Celecoxib. Taken together, these data show that EGFR plays an important role in LPS-induction of COX-2 expression in enterocytes, which may be one mechanism for EGF in inhibition of NEC