Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Corruption in Developing Countries

Recent years have seen a remarkable expansion in economists' ability to measure corruption. This in turn has led to a new generation of well-identified, microeconomic studies. We review the evidence on corruption in developing countries in light of these recent advances, focusing on three questions: how much corruption is there, what are the efficiency consequences of corruption, and what determines the level of corruption? We find robust evidence that corruption responds to standard economic incentive theory but also that the effects of anticorruption policies often attenuate as officials find alternate strategies to pursue rents.Hewlett-Packard CompanyGreat Britain. Dept. for International DevelopmentMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (Governance Initiative

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Beam Energy and Centrality Dependence of Direct-Photon Emission from Ultrarelativistic Heavy-Ion Collisions.

The PHENIX collaboration presents first measurements of low-momentum (0.41  GeV/c) direct-photon yield dN_{γ}^{dir}/dη is a smooth function of dN_{ch}/dη and can be well described as proportional to (dN_{ch}/dη)^{α} with α≈1.25. This scaling behavior holds for a wide range of beam energies at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider, for centrality selected samples, as well as for different A+A collision systems. At a given beam energy, the scaling also holds for high p_{T} (&gt;5  GeV/c), but when results from different collision energies are compared, an additional sqrt[s_{NN}]-dependent multiplicative factor is needed to describe the integrated-direct-photon yield

Search for direct stau production in events with two hadronic tau-leptons in root s=13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of the supersymmetric partners ofτ-leptons (staus) in final stateswith two hadronically decayingτ-leptons is presented. The analysis uses a dataset of pp collisions corresponding to an integrated luminosity of139fb−1, recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LargeHadron Collider at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. No significant deviation from the expected StandardModel background is observed. Limits are derived in scenarios of direct production of stau pairs with eachstau decaying into the stable lightest neutralino and oneτ-lepton in simplified models where the two staumass eigenstates are degenerate. Stau masses from 120 GeV to 390 GeV are excluded at 95% confidencelevel for a massless lightest neutralino

Investment Incentives Under Emission Trading: An Experimental Study

This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on incentives to adopt advanced abatement technology under emissions trading. Our experimental design mimics an industry with small asymmetric polluting firms regulated by different schemes of tradable permits. We consider three allocation/auction policies: auctioning off (costly) permits through an ascending clock auction, grandfathering permits with re-allocation through a single-unit double auction, and grandfathering with re-allocation through an ascending clock auction. Our results confirm both dynamic and static theoretical equivalence of auctioning and grandfathering. We nevertheless find that although the market institution used to reallocate permits does not impact the dynamic efficiency from investment, it affects the static efficiency from permit trading

Ca2+ monitoring in Plasmodium falciparum using the yellow cameleon-Nano biosensor

Calcium (Ca2+)-mediated signaling is a conserved mechanism in eukaryotes, including the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Due to its small size (300?nM). We determined that the mammalian SERCA inhibitor thapsigargin and antimalarial dihydroartemisinin did not perturb SERCA activity. The change of the cytosolic Ca2+ level in P. falciparum was additionally detectable by flow cytometry. Thus, we propose that the developed YC-Nano-based system is useful to study Ca2+ signaling in P. falciparum and is applicable for drug screening.We are grateful to Japanese Red Cross Blood Society for providing human RBC and plasma. We also thank Tanaka R, Ogoshi (Sakura) M and Matsumoto N for technical assistance and Templeton TJ for critical reading. This study was conducted at the Joint Usage / Research Center on Tropical Disease, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Japan. KP was a Tokyo Biochemical Research Foundation (TBRF, http://www.tokyobrf.or.jp) post-doctoral fellow and PEF was a Japanese Society of Promotion Sciences (JSPS) post-doctoral fellow. This work was supported in part by the TBRF (K.P.), JSPS (P.E.F.), Takeda Science Foundation (K.Y.), Grants-in-Aids for Scientific Research 24590509 (K.Y.), 22390079 (O.K.), and for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas 23117008 (O.K.), MEXT, Japan. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Primula vulgaris (primrose) genome assembly, annotation and gene expression, with comparative genomics on the heterostyly supergene

Primula vulgaris (primrose) exhibits heterostyly: plants produce self-incompatible pin- or thrum-form flowers, with anthers and stigma at reciprocal heights. Darwin concluded that this arrangement promotes insect-mediated cross-pollination; later studies revealed control by a cluster of genes, or supergene, known as the S (Style length) locus. The P. vulgaris S locus is absent from pin plants and hemizygous in thrum plants (thrum-specific); mutation of S locus genes produces self-fertile homostyle flowers with anthers and stigma at equal heights. Here, we present a 411 Mb P. vulgaris genome assembly of a homozygous inbred long homostyle, representing ~87% of the genome. We annotate over 24,000 P. vulgaris genes, and reveal more genes up-regulated in thrum than pin flowers. We show reduced genomic read coverage across the S locus in other Primula species, including P. veris, where we define the conserved structure and expression of the S locus genes in thrum. Further analysis reveals the S locus has elevated repeat content (64%) compared to the wider genome (37%). Our studies suggest conservation of S locus genetic architecture in Primula, and provide a platform for identification and evolutionary analysis of the S locus and downstream targets that regulate heterostyly in diverse heterostylous species

Computer-based technology and student engagement: a critical review of the literature

Computer-based technology has infiltrated many aspects of life and industry, yet there is little understanding of how it can be used to promote student engagement, a concept receiving strong attention in higher education due to its association with a number of positive academic outcomes. The purpose of this article is to present a critical review of the literature from the past 5 years related to how web-conferencing software, blogs, wikis, social networking sites (Facebook and Twitter), and digital games influence student engagement. We prefaced the findings with a substantive overview of student engagement definitions and indicators, which revealed three types of engagement (behavioral, emotional, and cognitive) that informed how we classified articles. Our findings suggest that digital games provide the most far-reaching influence across different types of student engagement, followed by web-conferencing and Facebook. Findings regarding wikis, blogs, and Twitter are less conclusive and significantly limited in number of studies conducted within the past 5 years. Overall, the findings provide preliminary support that computer-based technology influences student engagement, however, additional research is needed to confirm and build on these findings. We conclude the article by providing a list of recommendations for practice, with the intent of increasing understanding of how computer-based technology may be purposefully implemented to achieve the greatest gains in student engagement. © 2017, The Author(s)