COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest

Time spent with cats is never wasted: Lessons learned from feline acromegalic cardiomyopathy, a naturally occurring animal model of the human disease

<div><p>Background</p><p>In humans, acromegaly due to a pituitary somatotrophic adenoma is a recognized cause of increased left ventricular (LV) mass. Acromegalic cardiomyopathy is incompletely understood, and represents a major cause of morbidity and mortality. We describe the clinical, echocardiographic and histopathologic features of naturally occurring feline acromegalic cardiomyopathy, an emerging disease among domestic cats.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Cats with confirmed hypersomatotropism (IGF-1>1000ng/ml and pituitary mass; n = 67) were prospectively recruited, as were two control groups: diabetics (IGF-1<800ng/ml; n = 24) and healthy cats without known endocrinopathy or cardiovascular disease (n = 16). Echocardiography was performed in all cases, including after hypersomatotropism treatment where applicable. Additionally, tissue samples from deceased cats with hypersomatotropism, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy and age-matched controls (n = 21 each) were collected and systematically histopathologically reviewed and compared.</p><p>Results</p><p>By echocardiography, cats with hypersomatotropism had a greater maximum LV wall thickness (6.5mm, 4.1–10.1mm) than diabetic (5.9mm, 4.2–9.1mm; Mann Whitney, p<0.001) or control cats (5.2mm, 4.1–6.5mm; Mann Whitney, p<0.001). Left atrial diameter was also greater in cats with hypersomatotropism (16.6mm, 13.0–29.5mm) than in diabetic (15.4mm, 11.2–20.3mm; Mann Whitney, p<0.001) and control cats (14.0mm, 12.6–17.4mm; Mann Whitney, p<0.001). After hypophysectomy and normalization of IGF-1 concentration (n = 20), echocardiographic changes proved mostly reversible. As in humans, histopathology of the feline acromegalic heart was dominated by myocyte hypertrophy with interstitial fibrosis and minimal myofiber disarray.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>These results demonstrate cats could be considered a naturally occurring model of acromegalic cardiomyopathy, and as such help elucidate mechanisms driving cardiovascular remodeling in this disease.</p></div

Food-web structure in relation to environmental gradients and predator-prey ratios in tank-bromeliad ecosystems

Little is known of how linkage patterns between species change along environmental gradients. The small, spatially discrete food webs inhabiting tank-bromeliads provide an excellent opportunity to analyse patterns of community diversity and food-web topology (connectance, linkage density, nestedness) in relation to key environmental variables (habitat size, detrital resource, incident radiation) and predators: prey ratios. We sampled 365 bromeliads in a wide range of understorey environments in French Guiana and used gut contents of invertebrates to draw the corresponding 365 connectance webs. At the bromeliad scale, habitat size (water volume) determined the number of species that constitute food-web nodes, the proportion of predators, and food-web topology. The number of species as well as the proportion of predators within bromeliads declined from open to forested habitats, where the volume of water collected by bromeliads was generally lower because of rainfall interception by the canopy. A core group of microorganisms and generalist detritivores remained relatively constant across environments. This suggests that (i) a highly-connected core ensures food-web stability and key ecosystem functions across environments, and (ii) larger deviations in food-web structures can be expected following disturbance if detritivores share traits that determine responses to environmental changes. While linkage density and nestedness were lower in bromeliads in the forest than in open areas, experiments are needed to confirm a trend for lower food-web stability in the understorey of primary forests

The ethics of uncertainty for data subjects

Modern health data practices come with many practical uncertainties. In this paper, I argue that data subjects’ trust in the institutions and organizations that control their data, and their ability to know their own moral obligations in relation to their data, are undermined by significant uncertainties regarding the what, how, and who of mass data collection and analysis. I conclude by considering how proposals for managing situations of high uncertainty might be applied to this problem. These emphasize increasing organizational flexibility, knowledge, and capacity, and reducing hazard

Predictors of linkage to care following community-based HIV counseling and testing in rural Kenya

Despite innovations in HIV counseling and testing (HCT), important gaps remain in understanding linkage to care. We followed a cohort diagnosed with HIV through a community-based HCT campaign that trained persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLHA) as navigators. Individual, interpersonal, and institutional predictors of linkage were assessed using survival analysis of self-reported time to enrollment. Of 483 persons consenting to follow-up, 305 (63.2%) enrolled in HIV care within 3 months. Proportions linking to care were similar across sexes, barring a sub-sample of men aged 18–25 years who were highly unlikely to enroll. Men were more likely to enroll if they had disclosed to their spouse, and women if they had disclosed to family. Women who anticipated violence or relationship breakup were less likely to link to care. Enrolment rates were significantly higher among participants receiving a PLHA visit, suggesting that a navigator approach may improve linkage from community-based HCT campaigns.Vestergaard Frandse

Asymmetric triplex metallohelices with high and selective activity against cancer cells

Small cationic amphiphilic α-helical peptides are emerging as agents for the treatment of cancer and infection, but they are costly and display unfavourable pharmacokinetics. Helical coordination complexes may offer a three-dimensional scaffold for the synthesis of mimetic architectures. However, the high symmetry and modest functionality of current systems offer little scope to tailor the structure to interact with specific biomolecular targets, or to create libraries for phenotypic screens. Here, we report the highly stereoselective asymmetric self-assembly of very stable, functionalized metallohelices. Their anti-parallel head-to-head-to-tail ‘triplex’ strand arrangement creates an amphipathic functional topology akin to that of the active sub-units of, for example, host-defence peptides and ​p53. The metallohelices display high, structure-dependent toxicity to the human colon carcinoma cell-line HCT116 ​p53++, causing dramatic changes in the cell cycle without DNA damage. They have lower toxicity to human breast adenocarcinoma cells (MDA-MB-468) and, most remarkably, they show no significant toxicity to the bacteria methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli. At a glanc

KeV Warm Dark Matter and Composite Neutrinos

Elementary keV sterile Dirac neutrinos can be a natural ingredient of the composite neutrino scenario. For a certain class of composite neutrino theories, these sterile neutrinos naturally have the appropriate mixing angles to be resonantly produced warm dark matter (WDM). Alternatively, we show these sterile neutrinos can be WDM produced by an entropy-diluted thermal freeze-out, with the necessary entropy production arising not from an out-of-equilibrium decay, but rather from the confinement of the composite neutrino sector, provided there is sufficient supercooling.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures, published versio

CSF and Brain Structural Imaging Markers of the Alzheimer's Pathological Cascade

10.1371/journal.pone.0047406PLoS ONE712