Explainable neural networks for trait-based multispecies distribution modelling—A case study with butterflies and moths

Species response traits mediate environmental effects on species distribution. Traits are used in joint and multispecies distribution models (JSDMs and MSDMs) to enable community-wide shared parameters that characterise niche filtering along environmental gradients. Multispecies machine learning SDMs, however, do not use traits as their inclusion requires an additional taxonomic dimension that is incompatible with their usual tabular inputs. This has confined trait mediation in SDMs to hierarchical Bayesian models. Here we provide a novel artificial neural network (ANN) architecture that solves this dimensionality problem. Our ANN includes species traits (via a time distributed layer) and is therefore able to identify not only species-specific responses to the environment, but also shared responses across the community that are mediated by species traits. Model performance evaluated at the species level not only quantifies the reliability of species predictions, but also their departure from an average response dictated by traits only. We apply our model to two unique long-term spatio-temporal of butterfly and moth datasets collected across the United Kingdom between 1990 and 2019. In addition to species traits, predictors include numerous metrics derived from weather, land-cover and topology data. For butterflies and moths we show convincing model performance for classifying species occupancy. We use SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) to explain the ANN and show how trait-mediated and species-specific responses can be approximated, hence yielding ecological insights on the key drivers of species distribution. We highlight a range of drivers of change that determine occupancy, including wind, temperature as well as habitat type. We demonstrate that a trait-based approach can be encoded as an ANN by using a time distributed layer. This brings ANNs unmatched predictive capabilities to the field of MSDMs, at the same time of lifting their reputed drawback of poor explainability

Moth biomass increases and decreases over 50 years in Britain

Steep insect biomass declines ('insectageddon') have been widely reported, despite a lack of continuously collected biomass data from replicated long-term monitoring sites. Such severe declines are not supported by the world’s longest running insect population database: annual moth biomass estimates from British fixed monitoring sites revealed increasing biomass between 1967 and 1982, followed by gradual decline from 1982 to 2017, with a 2.2-fold net gain in mean biomass between the first (1967–1976) and last decades (2008–2017) of monitoring. High between-year variability and multi-year periodicity in biomass emphasize the need for long-term data to detect trends and identify their causes robustly

Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades

Entomology is key to understanding terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems at a time of unprecedented anthropogenic environmental change and offers substantial untapped potential to benefit humanity in a variety of ways, from improving agricultural practices to managing vector-borne diseases and inspiring technological advances. We identified high priority challenges for entomology using an inclusive, open, and democratic four-stage prioritisation approach, conducted among the membership and affiliates (hereafter ‘members’) of the UK-based Royal Entomological Society (RES). A list of 710 challenges was gathered from 189 RES members. Thematic analysis was used to group suggestions, followed by an online vote to determine initial priorities, which were subsequently ranked during an online workshop involving 37 participants. The outcome was a set of 61 priority challenges within four groupings of related themes: (i) ‘Fundamental Research’ (themes: Taxonomy, ‘Blue Skies’ [defined as research ideas without immediate practical application], Methods and Techniques); (ii) ‘Anthropogenic Impacts and Conservation’ (themes: Anthropogenic Impacts, Conservation Options); (iii) ‘Uses, Ecosystem Services and Disservices’ (themes: Ecosystem Benefits, Technology and Resources [use of insects as a resource, or as inspiration], Pests); (iv) ‘Collaboration, Engagement and Training’ (themes: Knowledge Access, Training and Collaboration, Societal Engagement). Priority challenges encompass research questions, funding objectives, new technologies, and priorities for outreach and engagement. Examples include training taxonomists, establishing a global network of insect monitoring sites, understanding the extent of insect declines, exploring roles of cultivated insects in food supply chains, and connecting professional with amateur entomologists. Responses to different challenges could be led by amateur and professional entomologists, at all career stages. Overall, the challenges provide a diverse array of options to inspire and initiate entomological activities and reveal the potential of entomology to contribute to addressing global challenges related to human health and well-being, and environmental change

Bucking the trend: the diversity of Anthropocene ‘winners’ among British moths

An appreciation of how some species are becoming more common despite unprecedented anthropogenic pressures could offer key insights for mitigating the global biodiversity crisis. Research to date has largely focused on declining species, while species that are becoming more common have received relatively little attention. Macro-moths in Great Britain are well-studied and species-rich, making them an ideal group for addressing this knowledge gap. Here, we examine changes in 51 successful species between 1968 and 2016 using 4.5 million occurrence records and a systematic monitoring dataset. We employ 3D graphical analysis to visualise long-term multidimensional trends in prevalence (abundance and range) and use vector autoregression models to test whether past values of local abundance are useful for predicting changes in the extent of occurrence. The responses of Anthropocene winners are heterogeneous, suggesting multiple drivers are responsible. Changes in range and local abundance frequently occur intermittently through time, demonstrating the value of long-term, continuous monitoring. There is significant diversity among the winners themselves, which include widespread generalists, habitat specialists, and recent colonists. We offer brief discussion of possible causal factors and the wider ecosystem implications of these trends

Escape from parasitism by the invasive alien ladybird, Harmonia axyridis

Alien species are often reported to perform better than functionally similar species native to the invaded range, resulting in high population densities, and a tendency to become invasive. The enemy release hypothesis (ERH) explains the success of invasive alien species (IAS) as a consequence of reduced mortality from natural enemies (predators, parasites and pathogens) compared with native species. The harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, a species alien to Britain, provides a model system for testing the ERH. Pupae of H. axyridis and the native ladybird Coccinella septempunctata were monitored for parasitism between 2008 and 2011, from populations across southern England in areas first invaded by H. axyridis between 2004 and 2009. In addition, a semi-field experiment was established to investigate the incidence of parasitism of adult H. axyridis and C. septempunctata by Dinocampus coccinellae. Harmonia axyridis pupae were parasitised at a much lower rate than conspecifics in the native range, and both pupae and adults were parasitised at a considerably lower rate than C. septempunctata populations from the same place and time (H. axyridis: 1.67%; C. septempunctata: 18.02%) or in previous studies on Asian H. axyridis (2-7%). We found no evidence that the presence of H. axyridis affected the parasitism rate of C. septempunctata by D. coccinellae. Our results are consistent with the general prediction that the prevalence of natural enemies is lower for introduced species than for native species at early stages of invasion. This may partly explain why H. axyridis is such a successful IAS. © 2013 The Royal Entomological Society

Escape from parasitism by the invasive alien ladybird, Harmonia axyridis

Alien species are often reported to perform better than functionally similar species native to the invaded range, resulting in high population densities, and a tendency to become invasive. The enemy release hypothesis (ERH) explains the success of invasive alien species (IAS) as a consequence of reduced mortality from natural enemies (predators, parasites and pathogens) compared with native species. The harlequin ladybird, Harmonia axyridis, a species alien to Britain, provides a model system for testing the ERH. Pupae of H. axyridis and the native ladybird Coccinella septempunctata were monitored for parasitism between 2008 and 2011, from populations across southern England in areas first invaded by H. axyridis between 2004 and 2009. In addition, a semi-field experiment was established to investigate the incidence of parasitism of adult H. axyridis and C. septempunctata by Dinocampus coccinellae. Harmonia axyridis pupae were parasitised at a much lower rate than conspecifics in the native range, and both pupae and adults were parasitised at a considerably lower rate than C. septempunctata populations from the same place and time (H. axyridis: 1.67%; C. septempunctata: 18.02%) or in previous studies on Asian H. axyridis (2-7%). We found no evidence that the presence of H. axyridis affected the parasitism rate of C. septempunctata by D. coccinellae. Our results are consistent with the general prediction that the prevalence of natural enemies is lower for introduced species than for native species at early stages of invasion. This may partly explain why H. axyridis is such a successful IAS. © 2013 The Royal Entomological Society

Influence of the restoration quality on the success of pulpotomy treatment: a preliminary retrospective study Influência da qualidade da restauração sobre o sucesso da pulpotomia: estudo preliminar

The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical status of pulpotomy treatment with calcium hydroxide and to correlate it with the quality of restoration of the treated teeth. Patients were retrieved from the files of the Operative Dentistry clinics (FOUFPel) between 1996 and 2000. Twenty-two patients were recalled, which had 23 teeth treated with pulpotomy due to exposure by caries. Seven anterior and 16 posterior teeth composed the evaluated group, being all restored with composite resin. The age varied from 15-50 years (mean 23.9) and the follow-up mean was 34.52 months. Clinical and radiographic examinations were performed to evaluate the clinical status of treatment. The criteria used, clinically favorable and failure, were based on the following clinical exams: pulp vitality; sensitivity; and periapical alterations. The quality of the restorations was based on the USPHS criteria. Pulpotomy treatment was ranked as clinically favorable in 10 teeth (43.5%), 4 in anterior and 6 in posterior teeth. Failure was verified in 13 teeth (56.5%), 4 anterior and 9 posterior. From the group clinically favorable, 90% of the restorations were ranked as clinically satisfactory, while only 10% were unsatisfactory. In the failure group, 77.8% of the restorations were classified was unsatisfactory and 22.2% were ranked as satisfactory. The statistical analysis (Fisher&acute;s exact test) demonstrated that there is a statistically significant association between the clinical status of pulpotomy and restoration quality (p<0.05). Within the limitation of the study, it was verified that the quality of restoration could influence the favorable clinical status of pulpotomized teeth. Randomized clinical trials are required to confirm these preliminary data.<br>O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a condição clínica de dentes submetidos à pulpotomia com hidróxido de cálcio, correlacionando com a qualidade das restaurações dos respectivos dentes. A partir dos prontuários da clínica de Odontologia Restauradora da FOUFPel, foram selecionados 22 pacientes (23 dentes) submetidos a pulpotomia entre 1996 e 2000. Ao todo, 23 dentes (7 anteriores e 16 posteriores) receberam o tratamento de pulpotomia, indicado devido à exposição por cáries, sendo que todas as restaurações foram confeccionadas com resina composta. A idade dos pacientes variou de 15-50 anos (média de 23,9 anos) e o tempo médio de acompanhamento das pulpotomias foi de 34,52 meses. Avaliações clínicas e radiográficas foram realizadas para a avaliação das pulpotomias. Ausência de hipersensibilidade, de alterações periapicais e teste de vitalidade pulpar positivo, eram as condições necessárias para que o tratamento fosse incluído no grupo "clinicamente favorável" utilizados para avaliar a condição clínica dos dentes tratados. Os critérios de avaliação clínica da USPHS foram utilizados para avaliar a qualidade das restaurações. Dez dentes (43,5%) receberam o escore clinicamente favorável, 4 anteriores e 6 dentes posteriores. O critério falha foi atribuído a 13 dentes (56,5%), 4 dentes anteriores e 9 posteriores. Entre os dentes do grupo clinicamente favorável, 90% das restaurações foram classificadas como clinicamente satisfatória, enquanto 10% estavam insatisfatórias. No grupo onde houve falha, 77,8% das restaurações foram classificadas como insatisfatória enquanto 22,2% foram classificadas como satisfatórias. A análise estatística (Teste exato de Fisher) demonstrou que existe uma associação estatisticamente significante entre a condição clínica da pulpotomia e a qualidade da restauração (p<0,05). Respeitando as limitações do estudo, é possível verificar que a qualidade da restauração pode ser um fator influente para uma condição clínica favorável de dentes tratados com pulpotomia. Estudos clínicos controlados são necessários para confirmar esses achados preliminares

Grand challenges in entomology: Priorities for action in the coming decades

Funder: Royal Entomological Society; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013849Funder: Rural & Environment Science & Analytical Services Division of the Scottish GovernmentFunder: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation; Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156Funder: Department of Agriculture, Environment & Rural AffairsFunder: Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research1. Entomology is key to understanding terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems at a time of unprecedented anthropogenic environmental change, and offers substantial untapped potential to benefit humanity in a variety of ways, from improving agricultural practices to managing vector-borne diseases and inspiring technological advances. 2. We identified high priority challenges for entomology using an inclusive, open, and democratic four-stage prioritisation approach, conducted among the membership and affiliates (hereafter ‘members’) of the UK-based Royal Entomological Society (RES). 3. A list of 710 challenges was gathered from 189 RES members. Thematic analysis was used to group suggestions, followed by an online vote to determine initial priorities, which were subsequently ranked during an online workshop involving 37 participants. 4. The outcome was a set of 61 priority challenges within four groupings of related themes: (i) ‘Fundamental Research’ (themes: Taxonomy, ‘Blue Skies’ [defined as research ideas without immediate practical application], Methods and Techniques); (ii) ‘Anthropogenic Impacts and Conservation’ (themes: Anthropogenic Impacts, Conservation Options); (iii) ‘Uses, Ecosystem Services and Disservices’ (themes: Ecosystem Benefits, Technology and Resources [use of insects as a resource, or as inspiration], Pests); (iv) ‘Collaboration, Engagement and Training’ (themes: Knowledge Access, Training and Collaboration, Societal Engagement). 5. Priority challenges encompass research questions, funding objectives, new technologies, and priorities for outreach and engagement. Examples include training taxonomists, establishing a global network of insect monitoring sites, understanding the extent of insect declines, exploring roles of cultivated insects in food supply chains, and connecting professional with amateur entomologists. Responses to different challenges could be led by amateur and professional entomologists, at all career stages. 6. Overall, the challenges provide a diverse array of options to inspire and initiate entomological activities, and reveal the potential of entomology to contribute to addressing global challenges related to human health and well-being, and environmental change