A novel approach to screen and compare emission inventories

A methodology is proposed to support the evaluation and comparison of different types of emission inventories, and more specifically the comparison of bottom-up versus top-down approaches. The strengths and weaknesses of the methodology are presented and discussed based on an example. The approach results in a “diamond” diagram useful to flag out anomalous behaviors in the emission inventories and to get insight on possible explanations. In particular, the “diamond” diagram is shown to provide meaningful information in terms of: discrepancies between the total emissions reported by macro-sector and pollutant, contribution of each macro-sector to the total amount of emissions released by pollutant, and the identification and quantification of the different factors causing the discrepancies between total emissions. Its main strength as an indicator is to allow investigating the relative contribution of activity and weighted emission factors. A practical example in Barcelona is used for testing and to provide relevant information for the analyzed emission datasets. The tests show the capability of the proposed methodology to flag inconsistencies in the existing inventories. The proposed methodology system may be useful for regional and urban inventory developers as an initial evaluation of the consistency of their inventories.JRC.H.2-Air and Climat

The Impact of MM5 and WRF Meteorology over Complex Terrain on CHIMERE Model Calculations

The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of meteorological input data on calculated gas and aerosol concentrations. We use two different meteorological models (MM5 and WRF) together with the chemistry transport model CHIMERE.We focus on the Po valley area (Italy) for January and June 2005. Firstly we evaluate the meteorological parameters with observations. The analysis shows that the performance of both models in calculating surface parameters is similar, however differences are still observed. Secondly, we analyze the impact of using MM5 and WRF on calculated PM10 and O3 concentrations. In general CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMERE/WRF underestimate the PM10 concentrations for January. The difference in PM10 concentrations for January between CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMERE/WRF is around a factor 1.6 (PM10 higher for CHIMERE/MM5). This difference and the larger underestimation in PM10 concentrations by CHIMERE/WRF are related to the differences in heat fluxes and the resulting PBL heights calculated by WRF. In general the PBL height by WRF meteorology is a factor 2.8 higher at noon in January than calculated by MM5. This study showed that the difference in microphysics scheme has an impact on the profile of cloud liquid water (CLW) calculated by the meteorological driver and therefore on the production of SO4 aerosol. A sensitivity analysis shows that changing the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) in our WRF pre-processing for the 5-layer soil temperature model, calculated monthly mean Correspondence to: A. de Meij ([email protected]) PM10 concentrations increase by 30%, due to the change in the heat fluxes and the resulting PBL heights. For June, PM10 calculated concentrations by CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMERE/WRF are similar and agree with the observations. Calculated O3 values for June are in general overestimated by a factor 1.3 by CHIMERE/MM5 and CHIMERE/WRF. High temporal correlations are found between modeled and observed O3 concentrations.JRC.H.4 - Transport and air qualit

EURODELTA - Evaluation of a Sectoral Approach to Integrated Assessment Modeling - Second Report

The EURODELTA project is a continuing collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) at Ispra (Italy) and five air quality modeling teams at Ineris (France), the Free University of Berlin (Germany), Met.no (Norway), TNO (Netherlands) and SMHI (Sweden). This phase of Eurodelta investigates how different air quality models would represent the effect on pollutant impacts of applying, on a European scale, emission reductions to individual emission sectors. The reason for doing this is to test whether there are important sensitivities not captured by the sound science approach to air quality policy making on a European scale which is based on an integrated assessment (IA) approach and embodied in the IIASA RAINS/GAINS model. This study shows that there are important differences between sectors in the amount of concentration (deposition) reduction obtained by changing a pollutant emission. This difference is not accounted for in the present process used to evaluate future national emissions ceiling reductions for both beneficial effect and cost-effectiveness. This raises the possibility that, when national bodies consider how to implement an emission ceiling taking account of the information used in deriving that ceiling, choices might be made that are less effective than expected.JRC.DDG.H.4-Transport and air qualit

EURODELTA II - Evaluation of a Sectoral Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling Including the Mediterranean Sea

The EURODELTA II (ED II) project is a continuing collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) at Ispra (Italy) and five air quality modelling teams at Ineris (France), the Free University of Berlin (Germany), Met.no (Norway), TNO (Netherlands) and SMHI (Sweden) in which the results from air quality model simulations are brought together in the JRC assessment toolkit and compared with each other and against data. ED I examined the common performance of the models in predicting recent (2000) and future (2020) air quality in Europe using the concept of a model ensemble to measure robustness of predictions. The spread of predictions about the ensemble gave a measure of uncertainty for each predicted value. In a 2020 world the effect of making emission reductions for key pollutants of NOx, SO2, VOC and NH3 independently in France, Germany and Italy, and of NOx and SOx in sea areas, was investigated. Source-receptor relationships used in integrated assessment (IA) modelling were derived for all the models and compared to assess how model choice might affect this key input. ED II builds on this project by taking a closer look at how the different models represent the effect on pollutant impacts on a European scale of applying emission reductions to individual emission sectors. A total of 60 different emission scenario calculations were run using meteorology from 1999. Sectors were defined using the SNAP97 designation and main focus was on Sectors 1,2,3,4,7 and 10 with some scenarios including sectors 6 and 8. Sector definitions are given in the introduction. Although the time-line for the scenarios is 2020 in line with the EU CAFE study and with the NECD review, an extra set of three 2010 scenarios was run for the Mediterranean Sea. These examine the effect of EU legislation requiring the use of a 0.1% S fuel for ships at berth in ports and the use of a maximum 1.5% S fuel for ferries. The main recommendation is that, at minimum, validation calculations are carried out as part of the NEC process to examine if the implied sectoral reductions are able to deliver the intended benefits. If sectoral weights could be incorporated into the integrated assessment itself then this may lead to an overall better recommendation for emission ceilings.JRC.H.4 - Transport and air qualit

The Influence of Foreign vs North American Emissions on Surface Ozone in the US

As part of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP; www.htap.org) project, we analyze results from 16 global and hemispheric chemical transport models and compare these to Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) observations in the United States (US) for 2001. Using the policy-relevant maximum daily 8-h ozone (MDA8 O3) statistic, the multi-model ensemble represents the observations well (mean r2=0.57, ensemble bias=+4.1 ppbv for all regions and all seasons) despite a wide range in the individual model results. Correlations are strongest in the NorthEastern US during spring and fall (r2=0.68); and weakest in the Midwestern US in summer (r2=0.46). However, large positive mean biases exist during summer for all Eastern US regions, ranging from 10¿20 ppbv, and a smaller negative bias is present in the Western US during spring (3 ppbv). In most all other regions and seasons, the biases of the model ensemble simulations are 5 ppbv. Sensitivity simulations in which anthropogenic O3-precursor emissions (NOx+NMVOC+CO+aerosols) were decreased by 20% in each of four source regions: East Asia (EA), South Asia (SA), Europe (EU) and North America (NA) show that the greatest response of MDA8 O3 to the summed foreign emissions reductions occurs during spring in the West (0.9 ppbv reduction due to 20% reductions from EA+SA+EU). East Asia is the largest contributor to MDA8 O3 at all ranges of the O3 distribution for most regions (typically 0.45 ppbv). The exception is in the NorthEastern US where European emissions reductions had the greatest impact on MDA8 O3, particularly in the middle of the MDA8 O3 distribution (response of 0.35 ppbv between 35¿55 ppbv). In all regions and seasons, however, O3-precursor emissions reductions of 20% in the NA source region decrease MDA8 O3 the most by a factor of 2 to nearly 10 relative to foreign emissions reductions. The O3 response to anthropogenic NA emissions is greatest in the Eastern US during summer at the high end of the O3 distribution (5-6 ppbv for 20% reductions). While the impact of foreign emissions on surface O3 in the US is not negligible and is of increasing concern given the growth in emissions upwind of the US - domestic emissions reductions remain a farmore effective means of decreasing MDA8 O3 values, particularly those above 75 ppb(the current US standard).JRC.H.2-Air and Climat

FAIRMODE guidance document on modelling quality objectives and benchmarking

The development of the procedure for air quality model benchmarking in the context of the Air Quality Directive 2008/50/EC (AQD) has been an on-going activity in the context of the FAIRMODE community. A central part of the studies was the definition of proper modelling quality indicators and criteria to be fulfilled in order to allow sufficient level of quality for a given model application under the AQD. The focus initially on applications related to air quality assessment has gradually been expanded to other applications, such as forecasting and planning. The main purpose of this Guidance Document is to explain and summarise the current concepts of the modelling quality objective methodology, elaborated in various papers and documents in the FAIRMODE community, addressing model applications for air quality assessment and forecast.JRC.C.5 - Air and Climat

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100  ×  100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat

Impact of Biogenic Emissions on Ozone in the Mediterranean Area. A BEMA Modelling Study.

Abstract not availableJRC.(EI)-Environment Institut

A Modelling Study of Global Mixed Aerosol Fields.

Abstract not availableJRC.H - Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra