The role of orbital forcing, carbon dioxide and regolith in 100 kyr glacial cycles

The origin of the 100 kyr cyclicity, which dominates ice volume variations and other climate records over the past million years, remains debatable. Here, using a comprehensive Earth system model of intermediate complexity, we demonstrate that both strong 100 kyr periodicity in the ice volume variations and the timing of glacial terminations during past 800 kyr can be successfully simulated as direct, strongly nonlinear responses of the climate-cryosphere system to orbital forcing alone, if the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration stays below its typical interglacial value. The existence of long glacial cycles is primarily attributed to the North American ice sheet and requires the presence of a large continental area with exposed rocks. We show that the sharp, 100 kyr peak in the power spectrum of ice volume results from the long glacial cycles being synchronized with the Earth's orbital eccentricity. Although 100 kyr cyclicity can be simulated with a constant CO<sub>2</sub> concentration, temporal variability in the CO<sub>2</sub> concentration plays an important role in the amplification of the 100 kyr cycles

An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial) time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS

Mechanisms and time scales of glacial inception simulated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

We investigate glacial inception and glacial thresholds in the climate-cryosphere system utilising the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2, which includes modules for atmosphere, terrestrial vegetation, ocean and interactive ice sheets. The latter are described by the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS. A bifurcation which represents glacial inception is analysed with two different model setups: one setup with dynamical ice-sheet model and another setup without it. The respective glacial thresholds differ in terms of maximum boreal summer insolation at 65° N (hereafter referred as Milankovitch forcing (MF)). The glacial threshold of the configuration without ice-sheet dynamics corresponds to a much lower value of MF compared to the full model. If MF attains values only slightly below the aforementioned threshold there is fast transient response. Depending on the value of MF relative to the glacial threshold, the transient response time of inland-ice volume in the model configuration with ice-sheet dynamics ranges from 10 000 to 100 000 years. Due to these long response times, a glacial threshold obtained in an equilibrium simulation is not directly applicable to the transient response of the climate-cryosphere system to time-dependent orbital forcing. It is demonstrated that in transient simulations just crossing of the glacial threshold does not imply large-scale glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere. We found that in transient simulations MF has to drop well below the glacial threshold determined in an equilibrium simulation to initiate glacial inception. Finally, we show that the asynchronous coupling between climate and inland-ice components allows one sufficient realistic simulation of glacial inception and, at the same time, a considerable reduction of computational costs

Simulation of the last glacial cycle with a coupled climate ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity

A new version of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2, which includes the three-dimensional polythermal ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS, is used to simulate the last glacial cycle forced by variations of the Earth's orbital parameters and atmospheric concentration of major greenhouse gases. The climate and ice-sheet components of the model are coupled bi-directionally through a physically-based surface energy and mass balance interface. The model accounts for the time-dependent effect of aeolian dust on planetary and snow albedo. The model successfully simulates the temporal and spatial dynamics of the major Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets, including rapid glacial inception and strong asymmetry between the ice-sheet growth phase and glacial termination. Spatial extent and elevation of the ice sheets during the last glacial maximum agree reasonably well with palaeoclimate reconstructions. A suite of sensitivity experiments demonstrates that simulated ice-sheet evolution during the last glacial cycle is very sensitive to some parameters of the surface energy and mass-balance interface and dust module. The possibility of a considerable acceleration of the climate ice-sheet model is discussed

Thromboembolic and major bleeding events in relation to perioperative bridging of vitamin K antagonists in 649 fast-track total hip and knee arthroplasties

Background — The benefit of preoperative bridging in surgical patients with continuous anticoagulant therapy is debatable, and drawing of meaningful conclusions may have been limited by mixed procedures with different thromboembolic and bleeding risks in most published studies. Patients and methods — This was an observational cohort treatment study in consecutive primary unilateral total hip and knee arthroplasty patients between January 2010 and November 2013 in 8 Danish fast-track departments. Data were collected prospectively on preoperative comorbidity and anticoagulants in patients with preoperative vitamin K antagonist (VKA) treatment. We performed 30-day follow-up on in-hospital complications and re-admissions through the Danish National Patient Registry and patient records. Results — Of 13,375 procedures, 649 (4.7%) were in VKA patients with a mean age of 73 (SD 9) years and a median length of stay of 3 days (IQR: 2–4). Preoperative bridging was used in 430 (67%), while 215 (33%) were paused. Of 4 arterial thromboembolic events (ATEs) (0.6%), 2 were in paused patients and 2 were in bridged patients (p = 0.6). Of 3 venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) (0.5%), 2 were in paused patients and 1 was in a bridged patient (p = 0.3). Of 8 major bleedings (MBs) (1.2%), 1 was in a paused patient and 7 were in bridged patients (p = 0.3), 5 of whom received therapeutic bridging. Similar results were found in a propensity-matched cohort. Interpretation — In contrast to recent studies in mixed surgical procedures, no statistically significant differences in ATE, VTE, or MB were found between preoperative bridging and pausation of VKA patients. However, the higher number of thromboembolic events in paused patients and the higher number of major bleedings in bridged patients warrant more extensive investigation.</p

The role of CO2 decline for the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation

The Pliocene–Pleistocene Transition (PPT), from around 3.2 to 2.5 million years ago (Ma), represented a major shift in the climate system and was characterized by a gradual cooling trend and the appearance of large continental ice sheets over northern Eurasia and North America. Paleo evidence indicates that the PPT was accompanied and possibly caused by a decrease in atmospheric CO2, but the temporal resolution of CO2 reconstructions is low for this period of time and uncertainties remain large. Therefore, instead of applying existent CO2 reconstructions we solved an ‘inverse’ problem by finding a schematic CO2 concentration scenario that allows us to simulate the temporal evolution of key climate characteristics in agreement with paleoclimate records. To this end, we performed an ensemble of transient simulations with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity from which we derived a best guess transient CO2 scenario for the interval from 3.2 to 2.4 Ma that gives the best fit between the simulated and reconstructed benthic δ18O and global sea surface temperature evolution. Our data-constrained CO2 scenarios are consistent with recent CO2 reconstructions and suggest a gradual CO2 decline from 375–425 to 275–300 ppm, between 3.2 and 2.4 Ma. In addition to a gradual decline, the best fit to paleoclimate data requires the existence of pronounced CO2 variability coherent with the 41-kyr (1 kyr = 1000 years) obliquity cycle. In our simulations the long-term CO2 decline is accompanied by a relatively abrupt intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at around 2.7 Ma. This is the result of a threshold behaviour of the ice sheets response to gradual CO2 decrease and orbital forcing. The simulated Northern Hemisphere ice sheets during the early Pleistocene glacial cycles reach a maximum volume equivalent to a sea level drop of about 40 m. Both ice volume and benthic δ18O are dominated by 41-kyr cyclicity. Our simulations suggest that before 2.7 Ma Greenland was ice free during summer insolation maxima and only partly ice covered during periods of minimum summer insolation. A fully glaciated Greenland comparable to its present-day ice volume is modelled only during glacial maxima after 2.7 Ma and more continuously after 2.5 Ma

ISMIP6 future projections for Greenland and Antarctica with the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS

The Tenth Symposium on Polar Science/Ordinary sessions: [OM] Polar Meteorology and Glaciology, Wed. 4 Dec. / 2F Auditorium, National Institute of Polar Researc

MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet

Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, similar to 7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 degrees C (2.1-3.4 degrees C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely

A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents

The recent overall Northern Hemisphere warming was accompanied by several severe northern continental winters, as for example, extremely cold winter 2005/2006 in Europe and northern Asia. Here we show that anomalous decrease of wintertime sea ice concentration in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas could bring about extreme cold events like winter 2005/2006. Our simulations with the ECHAM5 general circulation model demonstrate that lower-troposphere heating over the B-K Seas in the Eastern Arctic caused by the sea ice reduction may result in strong anti-cyclonic anomaly over the Polar Ocean and anomalous easterly advection over northern continents. This causes a continental-scale winter cooling reaching -1.5°C, with more than three times increased probability of cold winter extremes over large areas including Europe. Our results imply that several recent severe winters do not conflict the global warming picture but rather supplement it, being in qualitative agreement with the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation realignment. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-latitude atmospheric circulation response to the B-K sea ice decrease is highly nonlinear and characterized by transition from anomalous cyclonic circulation to anticyclonic one and then again back to cyclonic type of circulation as the B-K sea ice concentration gradually reduces from 100% to ice free conditions. We present a conceptual model which may explain the nonlinear local atmospheric response in the B-K Seas region by counter play between convection over the surface heat source and baroclinic effect due to modified temperature gradients in the vicinity of the heating area