Climate Change and Extreme Events: an Assessment of Economic Implications

We use a general equilibrium model of the world economy, and a regional economic growth model, to assess the economic implications of vulnerability from extreme meteorological events, induced by the climate change. In particular, we first consider the impact of climate change on ENSO and NAO oceanic oscillations and, subsequently, the implied variation on regional expected damages. We found that expected damages from extreme events are increasing in the United States, Europe and Russia, and decreasing in energy exporting countries. Two economic implications are taken into account: (1) short-term impacts, due to changes in the demand structure, generated by higher/lower precautionary saving, and (2) variations in regional economic growth paths. We found that indirect stort-term effects(variations in savings due to higher or lower likelihood of natural disasters) can have an impact on regional economies, whose order of magnitude is comparable to the one of direct damages. On the other hand, we highlight that higher vulnerability from extreme events translates into higher volatility in the economic growth path, and vice versa.Climate Change, Extreme Events, Computable General Equilibrium Models, Precautionary Savings, Economic Growth

Simulating extended reproduction: Poverty reduction and class dynamics in Bolivia

An extended reproduction model is used to simulate the effects of alternative poverty reduction strategies. Three policy variables are introduced: (de)indebtedness policy, investment policy and income distribution policy, contributing respectively to the objectives of policy sovereignty, structural change and social justice. The Millennium Development Goal of halving extreme poverty by 2015 seems to be a difficult, but attainable goal for Bolivia. The model shows also the effects of poverty reduction strategies on the different social classes.industrial policy, income distribution, economic development, investment planning

Professional Developments for Educators in the Public School System

The purpose of the paper is to seek further understanding of professional developments from current literature. To accomplish a meaningful session, various components must be taken into consideration in creating and implementing professional developments

Reassessing renewable energy

This policy brief presents a long term assessment of low-carbon energies including renewables, nuclear and fossil energy with CCS. It targets the electricity sector from a global to a regional perspective and from centralized to decentralized energy systems. The policy brief aims at finding answers to the following questions: What role can and should renewable energy play in the next decades on the way to a low-carbon energy future? What is the optimal electricity mix (now and in the future)? What are the impli-cations of the optimal mix regarding renewable energy investment and policy? What framework would be needed to enhance international coordination

Desnutrición en Bolivia: la geografía y la cultura sí importan

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La frecuencia de problemas de salud y de desnutrición en Bolivia es alarmantemente elevada, incluso comparada con la de otros países en desarrollo. En este estudio se analiza el vínculo entre una medida bidimensional de la salud infantil, compuesta por los puntajes z de estatura y peso, y un conjunto de factores determinantes de la nutrición infantil relacionados con los contextos físico y cultural, las características de la madre, los activos del hogar y el acceso a los servicios públicos. Se procura identificar los principales factores que determinan la salud del niño y cuantificar el efecto de cada uno de ellos en cuanto al indicador bidimensional. Se adopta una estrategia secuencial para poder calcular un modelo lineal de dos ecuaciones con términos de error correlacionado. Un hallazgo importante es que las variables geográficas y culturales son factores determinantes significativos del estado de nutrición, y que las características antropométricas de la madre desempeñan un papel considerable. Se emplean datos de una encuesta demográfica y de salud de más de 3. 000 niños.

Economy-wide Impacts of Climate on Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Two possible adaptation options to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles irrigated areas in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25 percent for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation model, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, considering detailed wateragriculture linkages with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the low initial irrigated areas inthe region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated areas. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production or irrigated food production, both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Agriculture, Sub-Saharan Africa, Integrated Assessment Model

Religión, cultura y sociedad en Cuba

El cuadro religioso cubano presenta una peculiar complejidad por la diversidad de formas y organizaciones religiosas que lo componen y en especial por las notables diferencias entre ellas. Esto responde a que históricamente se han establecido distintos modelos socioculturales que han aportado modos distintos de expresar la religiosidad.De la cultura aborigen, quedan algunas huellas poco perceptibles. Los modelos más importantes, el español y el africano, establecieron respectivamente el catolicismo con carácter hegemónico y expresiones cubanizadas conformadas en un proceso de transculturación. El modelo norteamericano importó el espiritismo y más de 50 denominaciones protestantes. Por otras influencias se han incorporado el vodú haitiano, formas religiosas de chinos, el judaísmo, etc.Si bien en la mayoría de la población existen elementos religiosos, el pueblo cubano sin embargo no es eminentemente católico, protestante, santero o espiritista. Prevalece una religiosidad espontánea, asistemática, referida principalmente a la cotidianeidad que se expresa en variadas devociones, creencias y prácticas de contenido más bien mágico y supersticioso.Se destaca que en conjunto la religión no ha alcanzado en Cuba un nivel alto de significación sociopolítica en su intervención en la reproducción de la sociedad concreta. Ha tenido sucesivos momentos de incremento y de recesión. Se han verificado momentos de reactivamiento religioso en las etapas colonial, republicana neocolonial y revolucionaria. Actualmente, coincidiendo con una crisis socioeconómica se constata un reactivamiento religioso, debido a múltiples factores, desde 1989 y más aún en los años noventa.There are several religious forms and organizations in Cuba. Religiosity is shown in different sociocultural models. There are several cultural models: Spanish, African, Northamerican, Haity vudú, Chinese religious practices, etc. which have influenced Cuban religious believes and practices.However Cuba is a Catholic country and religion has no sociopolitical signifcance, except for a slight increase of religiosity since 1989-1990

DART-BIO: Modelling the interplay of food, feed and fuels in a global CGE model

Land use and land use change are determined as much by economic and institutional drivers as they depend on bio-physical conditions. Future pathways of socio-economic and environmental systems can only be assessed with scenarios which describe possible future paths of development. For this numeric models are one important tool. To capture the complex interactions between the development of regionally differentiated economic drivers, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be used. We discuss in a transparent way the inclusion of land and the representation of the complex agricultural production activities into DART-BIO, a CGE model. Implementing a scenario of changes in the preferences for meat and dairy products which is currently taking place in Asia, we find that these preference changes have only minor impacts on global agricultural prices while affecting regional production and trade. Results strongly depend on key parameter settings and highlight the importance of interlinkages between biofuel and livestock production

Una Aproximación al Concepto de Hecho Científico

El propósito de este trabajo es analizar el concepto de hecho científico. Este concepto es un elemento fundamental para la posterior formulación de hipótesis científica. Se enumeran las propiedades o características que estos deben cumplir para considerarlos como tales. Además, se compara el concepto tratado en este trabajo con el que han planteado algunos destacados pensadores en el campo de la epistemología y filosofía de las ciencias. Se concluye que este concepto es transversal a todos los tipos de ciencias naturales y, en todas ellas, las propiedades y características enunciadas deben cumplirse