Desastres, desplazamiento y un nuevo marco en las Américas

Existe una sorprendente variedad de ejemplos positivos de legislación, política y práctica nacionales en toda las Américas que los Estados han utilizado para responder a las consecuencias migratorias de los desastres

Recursive estimation of possibly misspecified MA(1) models: Convergence of a general algorithm

We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses Pseudolinear Regression (PLR--also referred to as AML and $RML_1$) and Recursive Maximum Likelihood ($RML_2$) without monitoring. Stimulated by the approach of Hannan (1980), our convergence results are obtained indirectly by showing that the recursive sequence can be approximated by a sequence satisfying a recursion of simpler (Robbins-Monro) form for which convergence results applicable to our situation have recently been obtained.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/074921706000000932 in the IMS Lecture Notes Monograph Series (http://www.imstat.org/publications/lecnotes.htm) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Secours en cas de catastrophe et déplacement : en quête de cohérence politique: Disaster relief and displacement: the quest for policy coherence

Comment pouvons-nous faire un meilleur usage des cadres existants qui régissent les secours en cas de catastrophe pour répondre aux conséquences des catastrophes sur la mobilité ? En prenant les Amériques comme étude de cas, nous pouvons ainsi nous faire une idée et traiter aussi d’autres questions connexes. How can we make better use of existing disaster response frameworks to respond to the mobility-related impact of disasters? Taking the Americas as a case-study offers a window onto this and related questions

La ayuda en caso de desastre y desplazamiento: en busca de la coherencia de las políticas

¿Cómo podemos hacer un mejor uso de los marcos existentes de respuesta en caso de desastre para responder a sus efectos relacionados con la movilidad? Tomar las Américas como estudio de caso ofrece una ventana a esta y otras cuestiones relacionadas

Undesirable and Unreturnable Migrants:Policy challenges around excluded asylum seekers and other migrants suspected of serious criminality who cannot be removed. Conference report and policy brief

Migrants who are undesirable because of alleged involvement in serious criminality but unreturnable because of legal or practical reasons may present decision makers, policy makers and the responsible politicians with significant challenges. While there are different short-term policy responses to the issue, a considerable group of these individuals will always remain in legal limbo, sometimes for many years. A coherent solution is currently lacking, as is guidance on how to deal with this group of persons. Building upon two network meetings with academics and practitioners, this document defines the problem, describes current state responses and explores possibilities of future policy solutions

Plan de mejoramiento de los procesos administrativos y contables de la Fundación Juntos de La Mano por una Colombia Mejor de Bogotá

El presente trabajo se hizo con el fin de realizar un plan de mejoramiento de los procesos administrativos y un esquema contable, mediante la aplicación de distintas actividades y estrategias en la Fundación Juntos de la mano por una Colombia Mejor, donde se realizó capacitación a los directivos de la fundación, con el fin de mejorar la organización y el control de las diferentes actividades que se llevan a cabo y donde es importante que los directivos enfoquen sus esfuerzos

Analysis of health overseas development aid for internally displaced persons in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND: There are an estimated 55 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) globally. IDPs commonly have worse health outcomes than host populations and other forcibly displaced populations such as refugees. Official development assistance (ODA) is a major source of the global financial response for health in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), including for populations affected by armed conflict and forced displacement. Analysis of ODA supports efforts to improve donor accountability, transparency and the equitable use of ODA. The aim of this study is to examine international donor support and responsiveness to IDP health needs through analysis of ODA disbursements to LMICs between 2010 and 2019. METHODS: ODA disbursement data to LMICs from 2010 to 2019 were extracted from the Creditor Reporting System (CRS) database and analysed with Stata software using a combination of: (i) text searching for IDP and refugee related terms; and (ii) relevant health and humanitarian CRS purpose codes. Descriptive analysis was used to examine patterns of ODA disbursement, and nonlinear least squared regression analysis was used to examine responsiveness of ODA disbursement to recipient country IDP population size and health system capacity and health characteristics. FINDINGS: The study highlighted declining per IDP capita health ODA from USD 5.34 in 2010 to USD 3.72 in 2019 (with annual average decline of -38% from the 2010 baseline). In contrast, health ODA for refugees in LMICs increased from USD 18.55 in 2010 to USD 23.31 in 2019 (with an annual average increase of +14%). Certain health topics for IDPs received very low ODA, with only 0.44% of IDP health ODA disbursed for non-communicable diseases (including mental health). There was also weak evidence of IDP health ODA being related to recipient country IDP population size, and health system capacity and health characteristics. The paper highlights the need for increased investment by donors in IDP health ODA and to ensure that it is responsive to their health needs

The Role of Industry, Geography and Firm Heterogeneity in Credit Risk Diversification

In theory the potential for credit risk diversification for banks could be substantial. Portfolio diversification is driven broadly by two characteristics: the degree to which systematic risk factors are correlated with each other and the degree of dependence individual firms have to the different types of risk factors. We propose a model for exploring these dimensions of credit risk diversification: across industry sectors and across different countries or regions. We find that full firm-level parameter heterogeneity matters a great deal for capturing differences in simulated credit loss distributions. Imposing homogeneity results in overly skewed and fat-tailed loss distributions. These differences become more pronounced in the presence of systematic risk factor shocks: increased parameter heterogeneity greatly reduces shock sensitivity. Allowing for regional parameter heterogeneity seems to better approximate the loss distributions generated by the fully heterogeneous model than allowing just for industry heterogeneity. The regional model also exhibits less shock sensitivity

Concordance of Treatment Effect: An Analysis of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Intermacs Database

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Intermacs Registry represents a real-world data source of durable, left ventricular assist devices that can address knowledge gaps not informed through randomized clinical trials. We sought to compare survival with contemporary left ventricular assist device technologies using multiple analytic approaches to assess concordance of treatment effects and to validate prior STS Intermacs observations. METHODS: Patients (aged \u3e 19 years) enrolled into STS Intermacs between August 2017 - June 2019 were stratified by device type (centrifugal device with hybrid levitation [CF-HL] or full magnetic levitation [CF-FML]). The primary outcome was 1-year survival assessed by three statistical methodologies (multivariable regression, propensity score matching, and instrumental variable analysis). RESULTS: Of 4,448 patients, 2,012 (45.2%) received CF-HL and 2,436 (54.8%) received CF-FML. One-year survival for CF-FML was 88% vs. 79% for CF-HL (overall p \u3c .001), with a hazard ratio for mortality of 3.18 for CF-HL (p\u3c0.0001) after risk adjustment. With propensity score matching (n=1400 each cohort), 1-year survival was 87% for CF-FML vs. 80% for CF-HL, with a hazard ratio of 3.20 for mortality with CF-HL (p\u3c0.0001) after risk adjustment. With an instrumental variable analysis, the probability of receiving CF-HL was associated with a hazard ratio of 3.11 (p\u3c0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Statistical methodology using propensity score matching and instrumental variable analysis increased the robustness of observations derived from real-world data and demonstrates the feasibility of performing comparative effectiveness research using STS Intermacs. These analyses provide additional evidence supporting a survival benefit of CF-FML versus CF-HL

Cytoplasmic BK\u3csub\u3eCa\u3c/sub\u3e channel intron-containing mRNAs contribute to the intrinsic excitability of hippocampal neurons

High single-channel conductance K+ channels, which respond jointly to membrane depolarization and micromolar concentrations of intracellular Ca2+ ions, arise from extensive cell-specific alternative splicing of pore-forming α-subunit mRNAs. Here, we report the discovery of an endogenous BKCa channel α-subunit intron-containing mRNA in the cytoplasm of hippocampal neurons. This partially processed mRNA, which comprises ≈10% of the total BKCa channel α-subunit mRNAs, is distributed in a gradient throughout the somatodendritic space. We selectively reduced endogenous cytoplasmic levels of this intron-containing transcript by RNA interference without altering levels of the mature splice forms of the BKCa channel mRNAs. In doing so, we could demonstrate that changes in a unique BKCa channel α-subunit introncontaining splice variant mRNA can greatly impact the distribution of the BKCa channel protein to dendritic spines and intrinsic firing properties of hippocampal neurons. These data suggest a new regulatory mechanism for modulating the membrane properties and ion channel gradients of hippocampal neurons