Diagnostic testing for earnings simulation engines in the Australian electricity market

This study has endeavoured to propose and implement a series of diagnostic tests to determine the appropriateness of electricity simulation engines (ESEs) for generating electricity load and price paths to be used as input in the determination of a retailer’s earnings distribution and the assessment of earnings-at-risk (EaR) measures. Additional diagnostic measures require development before a routine can be developed whereby a complete diagnostic report can be generated as output using simulated and historical data as input. This work includes: (1) Further partitioning of output load and prices from an ESE into off-peak, peak and weekend periods to determine the subsequent effect on earnings. (2) The diagnosis of simulated load paths. As simulated load was not supplied for all engines, the diagnostics developed in this report did not include an analysis of load. (3) The building of a response surface to capture the interaction between temperature, load and price. (4) Examination of the convergence behaviour of an ESE. Convergence in this context means the determination of the minimum number of load and price paths required from a simulator in order to return expected profiles that conform to industry expectations. This would involve the sequential testing of an increasing number of simulated paths from an ESE in order to determine the number required. In conclusion, it is important to understand that each of the simulators that were diagnosed in this study were criticised according to industry expectations, and to the degree that the diagnostics employed here reflect those expectations. In fact, all simulators will attract criticism given that they are calibrated on historical data and are expected to generate future prices for market conditions that are unknown. The mark of an appropriate ESE is that the future load and pricing structure it generates is not too much at variance with industry expectations. A critical function of a simulator is for it not to overestimate or underestimate load and prices such that the risk metrics used to govern earnings risk faced by an electricity retailer are compromised to the extent that their book is either grossly over-hedged or under-hedged

A muiti-mode modulation and demodulation system and method

An improved system and method for modulation, demodulation and signal processing for single sideband communications systems which provides correction for the adverse effects of rapid fading characteristics in a mobile environment. The system provides modulation through a modified Weaver modulator in which the audio input is processed to produce an output in the form of an upper sideband having a pilot tone in a spectral gap at approximately midband. The receiver includes a modified Weaver demodulator and a correction signal generating circuit which processes the received faded audio input and pilot tone to produce a correcting signal. The correcting signal is mixed with the received signal to regenerate unfaded versions of both the signal and pilot by removing random amplitude and phase modulations imposed on them by the fading

Inference on gravitational waves from coalescences of stellar-mass compact objects and intermediate-mass black holes

Gravitational waves from coalescences of neutron stars or stellar-mass black holes into intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) of $\gtrsim 100$ solar masses represent one of the exciting possible sources for advanced gravitational-wave detectors. These sources can provide definitive evidence for the existence of IMBHs, probe globular-cluster dynamics, and potentially serve as tests of general relativity. We analyse the accuracy with which we can measure the masses and spins of the IMBH and its companion in intermediate-mass ratio coalescences. We find that we can identify an IMBH with a mass above $100 ~ M_\odot$ with $95\%$ confidence provided the massive body exceeds $130 ~ M_\odot$. For source masses above $\sim200 ~ M_\odot$, the best measured parameter is the frequency of the quasi-normal ringdown. Consequently, the total mass is measured better than the chirp mass for massive binaries, but the total mass is still partly degenerate with spin, which cannot be accurately measured. Low-frequency detector sensitivity is particularly important for massive sources, since sensitivity to the inspiral phase is critical for measuring the mass of the stellar-mass companion. We show that we can accurately infer source parameters for cosmologically redshifted signals by applying appropriate corrections. We investigate the impact of uncertainty in the model gravitational waveforms and conclude that our main results are likely robust to systematics.Comment: 9 pages, 11 figure

Shape and intrusion history of the Late Caledonian Newry Igneous Complex, Northern Ireland

The Tellus high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric maps define previously unmapped zones within the Newry Igneous Complex, County Down. High-precision uranium–lead zircon dating of nine rock samples from different parts of the complex provides a robust set of age constraints (c.414–407 Ma), which confirm that the different plutons of the complex young towards the south-west. Combined, these new data allow an innovative model of intrusion to be developed, with intrusion beginning in the north-east and progressing towards the south-west

Persistent prelimbic cortex activity contributes to enhanced learned fear expression in females

Anxiety disorders, such as post-traumatic stress, are more prevalent in women and are characterized by impaired inhibition of learned fear and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) dysfunction. Here we examined sex differences in fear extinction and mPFC activity in rats. Females showed more learned fear expression during extinction and its recall, but not fear conditioning. They also showed more spontaneous fear recovery and more contextual fear before extinction and its recall. Moreover, enhanced learned fear expression in females was associated with sustained prelimbic (PL) cortex activity. These results suggest that sex differences in learned fear expression may involve persistent PL activation

Failure of interpolation in the intuitionistic logic of constant domains

This paper shows that the interpolation theorem fails in the intuitionistic logic of constant domains. This result refutes two previously published claims that the interpolation property holds.Comment: 13 pages, 0 figures. Overlaps with arXiv 1202.1195 removed, the text thouroughly reworked in terms of notation and style, historical notes as well as some other minor details adde

Dopamine D1-like receptor signalling in the hippocampus and amygdala modulates the acquisition of contextual fear conditioning

RATIONALE: Dopamine D1-like receptor signalling is involved in contextual fear conditioning, but the brain regions involved and its role in other contextual fear memory processes remain unclear. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to investigate (1) the effects of SCH 23390, a dopamine D1/D5 receptor antagonist, on contextual fear memory encoding, retrieval and reconsolidation, and (2) if the effects of SCH 23390 on conditioning involve the dorsal hippocampus (DH) and/or basolateral amygdala (BLA). METHODS: Rats were used to examine the effects of systemically administering SCH 23390 on the acquisition, consolidation, retrieval and reconsolidation of contextual fear memory, and on locomotor activity and shock sensitivity. We also determined the effects of MK-801, an NMDA receptor antagonist, on contextual fear memory reconsolidation. The effects of infusing SCH 23390 locally into DH or BLA on contextual fear conditioning and locomotor activity were also examined. RESULTS: Systemic administration of SCH 23390 impaired contextual fear conditioning but had no effects on fear memory consolidation, retrieval or reconsolidation. MK-801 was found to impair reconsolidation, suggesting that the behavioural parameters used allowed for the pharmacological disruption of memory reconsolidation. The effects of SCH 23390 on conditioning were unlikely the result of any lasting drug effects on locomotor activity at memory test or any acute drug effects on shock sensitivity during conditioning. SCH 23390 infused into either DH or BLA impaired contextual fear conditioning and decreased locomotor activity. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that dopamine D1-like receptor signalling in DH and BLA contributes to the acquisition of contextual fear memory