Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the period 1979Q2 to 2013Q1, and accounts for not only direct exposures of countries to El Niño shocks but also indirect effects through third-markets. The results of our Global VAR model of the world economy indicate that the economic consequences of El Niño shocks differ across countries. While Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, for other countries, the El Niño shock has a growth-enhancing effect; some (for instance the U.S.) due to direct effects while others (for instance the European region) through positive spillovers from major trading partners. Furthermore, most countries in our sample experience short-run in inflationary pressures as both energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. Given these findings, macroeconomic policy formulation should take into consideration the likelihood and effects of El Niño episodes

The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy

We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2.2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.oil-demand and oil-supply shocks

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

This paper analyses spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.international business cycle

The Global Impact of the Systemic Economies and MENA Business Cycles

This paper analyses spillovers from macroeconomic shocks in systemic economies (China, the Euro Area, and the United States) to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as well as outward spillovers from a GDP shock in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and MENA oil exporters to the rest of the world. This analysis is based on a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Spillovers are transmitted across economies via trade, financial, and commodity price linkages. The results show that the MENA countries are more sensitive to developments in China than to shocks in the Euro Area or the United States, in line with the direction of evolving trade patterns and the emergence of China as a key driver of the global economy. Outward spillovers from the GCC region and MENA oil exporters are likely to be stronger in their immediate geographical proximity, but also have global implications.international business cycle

Chemical-Scale Studies on the Role of a Conserved Aspartate in Preorganizing the Agonist Binding Site of the Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor

The nicotinic acetylcholine receptor and related Cys-loop receptors are ligand-gated ion channels that mediate fast synaptic transmission throughout the central and peripheral nervous system. A highly conserved aspartate residue (D89) that is near the agonist binding site but does not directly contact the ligand plays a critical part in receptor function. Here we probe the role of D89 using unnatural amino acid mutagenesis coupled with electrophysiology. Homology modeling implicates several hydrogen bonds involving D89. We find that no single hydrogen bond is essential to proper receptor function. Apparently, the side chain of D89 establishes a redundant network of hydrogen bonds; these bonds preorganize the agonist binding site by positioning a critical tryptophan residue that directly contacts the ligand. Earlier studies of the D89N mutant led to the proposal that a negative charge at this position is essential for receptor function. However, we find that receptors with neutral side chains at position 89 can function well, if the side chain is less perturbing than the amide of asparagine (nitro or keto groups allow function) or if a compensating backbone mutation is introduced to relieve unfavorable electrostatics

PRIVATE SAVINGS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: ARE THERE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS?

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39958/3/wp572.pd

The translation, validity and reliability of the German version of the Fremantle Back Awareness Questionnaire

Background: The Fremantle Back Awareness Questionnaire (FreBAQ) claims to assess disrupted self-perception of the back. The aim of this study was to develop a German version of the Fre-BAQ (FreBAQ-G) and assess its test-retest reliability, its known-groups validity and its convergent validity with another purported measure of back perception. Methods: The FreBaQ-G was translated following international guidelines for the transcultural adaptation of questionnaires. Thirty-five patients with non-specific CLBP and 48 healthy participants were recruited. Assessor one administered the FreBAQ-G to each patient with CLBP on two separate days to quantify intra-observer reliability. Assessor two administered the FreBaQ-G to each patient on day 1. The scores were compared to those obtained by assessor one on day 1 to assess inter-observer reliability. Known-groups validity was quantified by comparing the FreBAQ-G score between patients and healthy controls. To assess convergent validity, patient\u27s FreBAQ-G scores were correlated to their two-point discrimination (TPD) scores. Results: Intra- and Inter-observer reliability were both moderate with ICC3.1 = 0.88 (95%CI: 0.77 to 0.94) and 0.89 (95%CI: 0.79 to 0.94), respectively. Intra- and inter-observer limits of agreement (LoA) were 6.2 (95%CI: 5.0±8.1) and 6.0 (4.8±7.8), respectively. The adjusted mean difference between patients and controls was 5.4 (95%CI: 3.0 to 7.8, p\u3c0.01). Patient\u27s FreBAQ-G scores were not associated with TPD thresholds (Pearson\u27s r = -0.05, p = 0.79). Conclusions: The FreBAQ-G demonstrated a degree of reliability and known-groups validity. Interpretation of patient level data should be performed with caution because the LoA were substantial. It did not demonstrate convergent validity against TPD. Floor effects of some items of the FreBAQ-G may have influenced the validity and reliability results. The clinimetric properties of the FreBAQ-G require further investigation as a simple measure of disrupted self-perception of the back before firm recommendations on its use can be made

A Phase I Double Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Randomized Study of a Multigenic HIV-1 Adenovirus Subtype 35 Vector Vaccine in Healthy Uninfected Adults

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>We conducted a phase I, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to assess the safety and immunogenicity of escalating doses of two recombinant replication defective adenovirus serotype 35 (Ad35) vectors containing gag, reverse transcriptase, integrase and nef (Ad35-GRIN) and env (Ad35-ENV), both derived from HIV-1 subtype A isolates. The trial enrolled 56 healthy HIV-uninfected adults.</p> <h3>Methods</h3><p>Ad35-GRIN/ENV (Ad35-GRIN and Ad35-ENV mixed in the same vial in equal proportions) or Ad35-GRIN was administered intramuscularly at 0 and 6 months. Participants were randomized to receive either vaccine or placebo (10/4 per group, respectively) within one of four dosage groups: Ad35-GRIN/ENV 2×10⁹ (A), 2×10¹⁰ (B), 2×10¹¹ (C), or Ad35-GRIN 1×10¹⁰ (D) viral particles.</p> <h3>Results</h3><p>No vaccine-related serious adverse event was reported. Reactogenicity events reported were dose-dependent, mostly mild or moderate, some severe in Group C volunteers, all transient and resolving spontaneously. IFN-γ ELISPOT responses to any vaccine antigen were detected in 50, 56, 70 and 90% after the first vaccination, and in 75, 100, 88 and 86% of Groups A–D vaccine recipients after the second vaccination, respectively. The median spot forming cells (SFC) per 10⁶ PBMC to any antigen was 78–139 across Groups A–C and 158–174 in Group D, after each of the vaccinations with a maximum of 2991 SFC. Four to five HIV proteins were commonly recognized across all the groups and over multiple timepoints. CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses were polyfunctional. Env antibodies were detected in all Group A–C vaccinees and Gag antibodies in most vaccinees after the second immunization. Ad35 neutralizing titers remained low after the second vaccination.</p> <h3>Conclusion/Significance</h3><p>Ad35-GRIN/ENV reactogenicity was dose-related. HIV-specific cellular and humoral responses were seen in the majority of volunteers immunized with Ad35-GRIN/ENV or Ad35-GRIN and increased after the second vaccination. T-cell responses were broad and polyfunctional.</p> <h3>Trial Registration</h3><p>ClinicalTrials.gov <a href="http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?term=NCT00851383">NCT00851383</a></p> </div

Construction and validation of an developmental profile assessment tool for children with autistic spectrum disorder

Nos últimos anos a investigação tem dado particular relevância às alterações do Processamento Sensorial nas crianças com perturbações do espectro do autismo (PEA) e a literatura refere que entre 42% a 88% das crianças com PEA apresentam este tipo de disfunção. Nesta linha foi definido um projeto de investigação centrado na construção de uma escala que avalie a tradicional tríade que caracteriza as crianças com PEA (Interação, Comunicação e Comportamento e interesses repetitivos e estereotipados), enriquecida pela inclusão de um novo domínio: o Processamento Sensorial. Com a construção e validação desta escala pretendemos que pais e profissionais utilizem colaborativamente um instrumento de avaliação da intervenção que lhes permita monitorizar o processo de apoio e adequar as suas práticas. Neste artigo descrevemos os procedimentos e os resultados das sucessivas fases de construção do instrumento, desde as análises iniciais mais qualitativas até aos estudos centrados na análise quantitativa dos itens.During the last few years, research has focused on changes in Sensory Processing in children with Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD). As a result, literature has shown that between 42% and 88% of children with ASD present this type of disorder. Based on these findings, a research project was designed centring on the construction of a tool to assess the traditional triad that characterizes children with ASD (Interaction, Communication and Behaviour and Repetitive and Stereotyped Interests), to which was added a new domain: Sensory Processing. By constructing and validating this assessment tool, the intention is for parents and professionals to collaboratively apply this intervention assessment instrument in order to monitor the support process and adapt their practices. In this paper, we describe procedures and results of the successive stages entailed in constructing this instrument, from the first primarily qualitative analyses up to the studies centred on the quantitative item analysis.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT)ABPEE - Associação Brasileira de Pesquisadores em Educação EspecialConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)CAPESMinistério da Educação - BrasilMinistério da Ciência e da Tecnologia - BrasilGoverno Federal - Brasi