Keynesian and schumpeterian efficiency in a BOP-constrained growth model

The paper aims to contribute to the debate on specialization and growth in two forms. Firstly, it develops a North-South model in which the ratio between the income elasticity of exports and imports in the South (that gives the rate of growth compatible with external equilibrium) depends on the Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency of the pattern of specialization, as defined by Dosi et al (1990). The model draws on key insights of the technology gap literature to discuss how these efficiencies are related to the dynamics of technological learning. Secondly, the model is tested including the variables Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency in a Keynesian growth regression. Several estimation procedures are used to test the model, among which Finite Mixture Estimation, which allows for estimating the parameters for homogenous groups of countries.Schumpeterian efficiency, keynesian efficiency, balance-of-payments-constrained growth, Thirlwall's Law

International comovement of stock market returns: a wavelet analysis

The assessment of the comovement among international stock markets is of key interest, for example, for the international portfolio diversification literature. In this paper, we re-examine such comovement by resorting to a novel approach, wavelet analysis. Wavelet analysis allows one to measure the comovement in the time-frequency space. In this way, one can characterize how international stock returns relate in the time and frequency domains simultaneously, which allows one to provide a richer analysis of the comovement. We focus on Germany, Japan, UK and US and the analysis is done at both the aggregate and sectoral levels.

Forecasting Euro Area Aggregates with Bayesian VAR and VECM Models

This paper focuses on Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive (BVAR) models for the euro area. A modified hyperparameterization scheme based on the Minnesota prior that takes into account the economic nature of the variables in the model is used. The merits of incorporating long-run relationships are also discussed. Alternative methods to estimate eventual cointegrating relations in the variables are considered, and the problem of choice of appropriate prior distributions for BVAR with Error Correction Mechanism (BECM) models is addressed. Results show that using a flat prior on factor loadings can seriously endanger the forecasting performance of BECM models. Overall, the BVAR model in levels outperforms all other models across variables and forecasting horizons. This is in contrast with other empirical studies where some gains could be obtained when incorporating long-run relationships in the model.

Nowcasting an Economic Aggregate with Disaggregate Dynamic Factors: An Application to Portuguese GDP

This paper consists of an empirical study comparing a dynamic factor model approach to estimate the current quarter aggregate GDP with the alternative approach of aggregating the forecasts obtained from specific dynamic factor models for each major expenditure disaggregate. The out-of-sample forecasting performance results suggest that there is no advantage in aggregating the disaggregate forecasts.Forecasting; Dynamic Factor Model; Temporal Disaggregation

Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area: A Frequency Band Approach

In the context of a common monetary policy, tracking euro area economic developments becomes essential. The aim of this paper is to build monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the euro area business cycle. However, instead of looking at the overall comovement between the variables as it is standard in the literature, we show how one can resort to both time and frequency domain analysis to achieve additional insight about their relationship. We find that, in general, the lead/lag properties of economic indicators depend on the cycles periodicity. Following a frequency band approach, we take advantage of this in the construction of the coincident and leading composite indicators. The resulting indicators are analysed and a comparison with other composite indicators proposed in the literature is made.

Análise de proveniência das contas verdes dos Perdigões

A variscite é um mineral raro que oferece uma excelente opotunidade de estudo dos padrões de comércio e troca na Europa durante a Pré- História através da determinação da sua fonte de proveniência. No presente texto será discutida a proveniência das contas de colar verdes com base em análises de XRF e XRD, através das quais se criou uma identidade geoquímica passível de ser comparada com as das fontes de variscite conhecidasVariscite is a rare mineral that offers an excellent opportunity to study trade and exchange patterns in prehistoric Europe through proveniencing of source material. In this paper we discuss the provenance of Perdigões’ green beads by means of XRF and XRD analyses, thus creating a geochemical baseline that is compared with that of the known variscite source

“What Deserves to be Remembered...”. Conflicts and Tensions about Public Projects on Uses of the Past in Sites of Memory

En este texto me interesa mostrar la génesis de un campo de discusión entre los actores que participan de los organismos de derechos humanos y el Estado en relación a la imposición de la noción de memoria focalizada en los sitios de memoria (ex centros clandestinos de detención, archivos, centros culturales). Analizar los momentos que llevaron a construir la idea de que los ex centros clandestinos de detención debían ser el núcleo de la institucionalización de las memorias. Para esto, primero recorreré brevemente la generación de las políticas públicas a partir de la llegada de un nuevo presidente al poder en el año 2003, para luego focalizar el análisis en un sitio de memoria concreto, el Archivo Provincial de la Memoria de Córdoba. Interesa observar de manera general estos cambios y cristalizaciones para poder enfocar la comprensión a partir de la generación de políticas que gravitan en torno a los sitios de memoria.In this paper I want to show the genesis of a field of discussion among human rights organizations and State in relation to the way in which a concept of memory focused on memory sites (former clandestine detention centers, archives, cultural centers) is imposed. I analyse the moments that contributed to enforce the idea that the former secret detention centers should be the core of the institutionalization of memories. To do that, I first briefly examine public policies taken by the new president in 2003, and then I focus on a specific site of memory, Archivo Provincial de la Memoria (Córdoba). I am interested in observing changes and crystallizations in order to understand the creating of policies around sites of memory.Fil: Da Silva Catela, Gilda Veronica Ludmila. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Antropología de Córdoba; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cordoba. Facultad de Filosofia y Humanidades. Museo de Antropologia; Argentin

Protesting or Justifying? A Latent Class Model for Contingent Valuation with Attitudinal Data

This article develops a latent class model for estimating willingness-to-pay for public goods using simultaneously contingent valuation (CV) and attitudinal data capturing protest attitudes related to the lack of trust in public institutions providing those goods. A measure of the social cost associated with protest responses and the consequent loss in potential contributions for providing the public good is proposed. The presence of potential justification biases is further considered, that is, the possibility that for psychological reasons the response to the CV question affects the answers to the attitudinal questions. The results from our empirical application suggest that psychological factors should not be ignored in CV estimation for policy purposes, allowing for a correct identification of protest responses. JEL codes: C35, C85, Q51

Romper el silencio, traducir el dolor: La fuerza de la historia oral frente a las situaciones de violencia política

Guerras, conflictos armados, procesos de violencias intra-nacionales, masacres ysituaciones extremas enfrentan a las víctimas a diferentes momentos de enunciación de sus dramas y dolores. En esta ponencia me interesa reflexionar en torno a la fuerza de la oralidad como una herramienta poderosa para enunciar lo sucedido. El testimonio y sus formas de romper el silencio, permiten analizar y comprender los procesos de construcción de memorias fragmentadas, a partir de la interpretación de sus temporalidades y espacialidades, tanto como, de los conflictos que plantean las estrategias frente a la gestión del pasado (y sus violencias) en el espacio público.Para recorrer estos temas partiré de dos experiencias concretas, la del Archivo de Historia Oral del Archivo Provincial de la Memoria de Córdoba constituido en el año 2006 y, de mi propia experiencia etnográfica en pequeñas localidades del Noroeste argentino, a fin de ver rupturas y continuidades entre la institucionalización de los archivos y aquellos que quedan en manos de los investigadores. Unos y otros con su potencial y sus limitaciones.Fil: Da Silva Catela, Gilda Veronica Ludmila. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto de Antropología de Córdoba; Argentin