Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change

Continental mass change from GRACE over 2002-2011 and its impact on sea level

Present-day continental mass variation as observed by space gravimetry reveals secular mass decline and accumulation. Whereas the former contributes to sea-level rise, the latter results in sea-level fall. As such, consideration of mass accumulation (rather than focussing solely on mass loss) is important for reliable overall estimates of sea-level change. Using data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment satellite mission, we quantify mass-change trends in 19 continental areas that exhibit a dominant signal. The integrated mass change within these regions is representative of the variation over the whole land areas. During the integer 9-year period of May 2002 to April 2011, GIA-adjusted mass gain and mass loss in these areas contributed, on average, to −(0.7 ± 0.4) mm/year of sea-level fall and + (1.8 ± 0.2) mm/year of sea-level rise; the net effect was + (1.1 ± 0.6) mm/year. Ice melting over Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, the Canadian Arctic archipelago, Antarctica, Alaska and Patagonia was responsible for + (1.4±0.2) mm/year of the total balance. Hence, land-water mass accumulation compensated about 20 % of the impact of ice-melt water influx to the oceans. In order to assess the impact of geocentre motion, we converted geocentre coordinates derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) to degree-one geopotential coefficients. We found geocentre motion to introduce small biases to mass-change and sea-level change estimates; its overall effect is + (0.1 ± 0.1) mm/year. This value, however, should be taken with care owing to questionable reliability of secular trends in SLR-derived geocentre coordinates

The Interactive Effects of Ammonia and Microcystin on Life-History Traits of the Cladoceran Daphnia magna: Synergistic or Antagonistic?

The occurrence of Microcystis blooms is a worldwide concern that has caused numerous adverse effects on water quality and lake ecology. Elevated ammonia and microcystin concentrations co-occur during the degradation of Microcystis blooms and are toxic to aquatic organisms; we studied the relative and combined effects of these on the life history of the model organism Daphnia magna. Ammonia and microcystin-LR treatments were: 0, 0.366, 0.581 mg L−1 and 0, 10, 30, 100 µg L−1, respectively. Experiments followed a fully factorial design. Incubations were 14 d and recorded the following life-history traits: number of moults, time to first batch of eggs, time to first clutch, size at first batch of eggs, size at first clutch, number of clutches per female, number of offspring per clutch, and total offspring per female. Both ammonia and microcystin were detrimental to most life-history traits. Interactive effects of the toxins occurred for five traits: the time to first batch of eggs appearing in the brood pouch, time to first clutch, size at first clutch, number of clutches, and total offspring per female. The interactive effects of ammonia and microcystin appeared to be synergistic on some parameters (e.g., time to first eggs) and antagonistic on others (e.g., total offspring per female). In conclusion, the released toxins during the degradation of Microcystis blooms would result, according to our data, in substantially negative effect on D. magna

Earth system mass transport mission (e.motion): A concept for future Earth gravity field measurements from space

In the last decade, satellite gravimetry has revealed itself as a pioneering technique for mapping mass redistributions within the Earth system, and has allowed for an improved understanding of the dynamic processes that take place within and between its various constituents. Results from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mission have revolutionized Earth system research and established the necessity for future satellite gravity missions. In 2010, a comprehensive team of European and Canadian scientists and industrial partners proposed the e.motion (Earth System Mass Transport Mission) concept to the European Space Agency. The proposal is based on two tandem satellites in a pendulum orbit configuration at an altitude of about 370 km, carrying a laser interferometer inter-satellite ranging instrument and improved accelerometers. In this paper, we review and discuss a wide range of mass signals related to the global water cycle and to solid Earth deformations that were outlined in the e.motion proposal. The technological and mission challenges that need to be addressed in order to detect these signals are emphasized within the context of the scientific return. This analysis presents a broad perspective on the value and need for future satellite gravimetry missions

Is ankle involvement underestimated in rheumatoid arthritis? Results of a multicenter ultrasound study

Patients with no history or clinical evidence of ankle involvement underwent US examination. For each ankle, tibio-talar (TT) joint, tibialis anterior (TA) tendon, extensor halux (EH) and extensor common (EC) tendons, tibialis posterior (TP) tendon, flexor common (FC) tendon and flexor hallux (FH) tendon, peroneous brevis (PB) and longus (PL) tendons, Achilles tendon (AT) and plantar fascia (PF) were assessed. The following abnormalities were recorded: synovitis, tenosynovitis, bursitis, enthesopathy and rupture. BMI, DAS28, RF ESR and CRP were also obtained. A total of 432 ankles of patients with RA and 400 ankles of healthy controls were assessed. In 188 (87%) patients with RA, US showed ankle abnormalities whereas, in control group, US found abnormalities in 57 (28.5 %) subjects (p = 0.01). The most frequent US abnormality in RA patients was TP tenosynovits (69/216) (31.9 %), followed by PL tenosynovitis (58/216) (26.9 %), TT synovitis (54/216) (25 %), PB tenosynovitis (51/216) (23.6 %), AT enthesopathy (41/216) (19 %) and AT bursitis (22/216) (10.2 %). In 118 RA patients out of 216 (54.6%), a positive PD was found. No statistically significant correlation was found between the US findings and age, disease duration, BMI, DAS28, RF, ESR and CRP. The present study provides evidence of the higher prevalence of subclinical ankle involvement in RA patients than in age- and gender-matched healthy controls identified by U