Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli’s Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species’ distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación and FEDER (project CGL2009-11316/BOS

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.

Polymorphisms in the Estrogen Receptor 1 and Vitamin C and Matrix Metalloproteinase Gene Families Are Associated with Susceptibility to Lymphoma

BackgroundNon-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is the fifth most common cancer in the U.S. and few causes have been identified. Genetic association studies may help identify environmental risk factors and enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms.Methodology/principal findings768 coding and haplotype tagging SNPs in 146 genes were examined using Illumina GoldenGate technology in a large population-based case-control study of NHL in the San Francisco Bay Area (1,292 cases 1,375 controls are included here). Statistical analyses were restricted to HIV- participants of white non-Hispanic origin. Genes involved in steroidogenesis, immune function, cell signaling, sunlight exposure, xenobiotic metabolism/oxidative stress, energy balance, and uptake and metabolism of cholesterol, folate and vitamin C were investigated. Sixteen SNPs in eight pathways and nine haplotypes were associated with NHL after correction for multiple testing at the adjusted q<0.10 level. Eight SNPs were tested in an independent case-control study of lymphoma in Germany (494 NHL cases and 494 matched controls). Novel associations with common variants in estrogen receptor 1 (ESR1) and in the vitamin C receptor and matrix metalloproteinase gene families were observed. Four ESR1 SNPs were associated with follicular lymphoma (FL) in the U.S. study, with rs3020314 remaining associated with reduced risk of FL after multiple testing adjustments [odds ratio (OR) = 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.23-0.77) and replication in the German study (OR = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.06-0.94). Several SNPs and haplotypes in the matrix metalloproteinase-3 (MMP3) and MMP9 genes and in the vitamin C receptor genes, solute carrier family 23 member 1 (SLC23A1) and SLC23A2, showed associations with NHL risk.Conclusions/significanceOur findings suggest a role for estrogen, vitamin C and matrix metalloproteinases in the pathogenesis of NHL that will require further validation

Persuading from the Start:Participatory Development of Sustainable Persuasive Data-Driven Technologies in Healthcare

Data-driven technologies can persuade humans to optimize their behavior and context based on objective data. However, current data-driven technologies have limited persuasive powers, because of a misfit between technology, end-users and context. Neglecting end-users in the development process contributes to this misfit and to limited engagement with the to-be-developed technology. This threatens sustainable (long-term) implementation. Therefore, this paper demonstrates how a bottom-up participatory development approach can improve the persuasive design of data-driven technologies and simultaneously increase engagement of end-users to foster sustainable implementation. This is done by describing part of the development of an Audit &amp; Feedback system for healthcare workers at a Dutch regional general hospital. The system intends to contribute to reducing antimicrobial resistance. The rationale for, questions asked at and results of a questionnaire and two focus groups are described.</p

Physiogenomic analysis of weight loss induced by dietary carbohydrate restriction

BACKGROUND: Diets that restrict carbohydrate (CHO) have proven to be a successful dietary treatment of obesity for many people, but the degree of weight loss varies across individuals. The extent to which genetic factors associate with the magnitude of weight loss induced by CHO restriction is unknown. We examined associations among polymorphisms in candidate genes and weight loss in order to understand the physiological factors influencing body weight responses to CHO restriction. METHODS: We screened for genetic associations with weight loss in 86 healthy adults who were instructed to restrict CHO to a level that induced a small level of ketosis (CHO ~10% of total energy). A total of 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected from 15 candidate genes involved in fat digestion/metabolism, intracellular glucose metabolism, lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite regulation. Multiple linear regression was used to rank the SNPs according to probability of association, and the most significant associations were analyzed in greater detail. RESULTS: Mean weight loss was 6.4 kg. SNPs in the gastric lipase (LIPF), hepatic glycogen synthase (GYS2), cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) and galanin (GAL) genes were significantly associated with weight loss. CONCLUSION: A strong association between weight loss induced by dietary CHO restriction and variability in genes regulating fat digestion, hepatic glucose metabolism, intravascular lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite were detected. These discoveries could provide clues to important physiologic adaptations underlying the body mass response to CHO restriction

Structural and Topographic Dynamics of Pulmonary Histopathology and Local Cytokine Profiles in Paracoccidioides brasiliensis Conidia-Infected Mice

Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM), an endemic fungal infection of pulmonary origin resulting in severe disseminated disease, occurs in rural areas of most South American countries and presents several clinical forms. The infection is acquired by inhalation of specific fungal propagules, called conidia. Considering the difficulties encountered when studying the infection in humans, this work was done in mice infected by inhalation of infective fungal conidia thus mimicking the human natural infection. The lungs of mice were sequentially studied by histopathological and multiplex cytokine methods from 2 h to 16 weeks after infection to verify the course of the disease. The mycosis presented different morphologic aspects during the course of time, affecting several pulmonary compartments. Otherwise and based on the analysis of 30 cytokines, the immune response also showed heterogeneous responses, which were up or down regulated depending on the time of infection. By recognizing the different stages that correspond to the evolution of pulmonary lesions, the severity (benign, chronic or fibrotic) of the disease could be predicted and the probable prognosis of the illness be inferred