Time-Varying Parameters in Continuous and Discrete Time

We consider models for both deterministic one-time and continuous stochastic parameter change in a continuous time autoregressive model around a deterministic trend function. For the latter we focus on the case where the autoregressive parameter itself follows a first-order autoregression. Exact discrete time analogue models are detailed in each case and compared to corresponding parameter change models adopted in the discrete time literature. The relationships between the parameters in the continuous time models and their discrete time analogues are also explored. For the one- time parameter change model the discrete time models used in the literature can be justified by the corresponding continuous time model, with a only a minor modification needed for the (most likely) case where the changepoint does not coincide with one of the discrete time observation points. For the stochastic parameter change model considered we show that the resulting discrete time model is characterised by an autoregressive parameter the logarithm of which follows an ARMA(1,1) process. We discuss how this relates to models which have been proposed in the discrete time stochastic unit root literature. The implications of our results for a number of extant discrete time models and testing procedures are discussed

Mouse models for preeclampsia: disruption of redox-regulated signaling

The concept that oxidative stress contributes to the development of human preeclampsia has never been tested in genetically-defined animal models. Homozygous deletion of catechol-Omethyl transferase (Comt-/-) in pregnant mice leads to human preeclampsia-like symptoms (high blood pressure, albuminurea and preterm birth) resulting from extensive vasculo-endothelial pathology, primarily at the utero-fetal interface where maternal cardiac output is dramatically increased during pregnancy. Comt converts estradiol to 2-methoxyestradiol 2 (2ME2) which counters angiogenesis by depleting hypoxia inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1 alpha) at late pregnancy. We propose that in wild type (Comt++) pregnant mice, 2ME2 destabilizes HIF-1 alpha by inhibiting mitochondrial superoxide dismutase (MnSOD). Thus, 2ME2 acts as a pro-oxidant, disrupting redox-regulated signaling which blocks angiogenesis in wild type (WT) animals in physiological pregnancy. Further, we suggest that a lack of this inhibition under normoxic conditions in mutant animals (Comt-/-) stabilises HIF-1 alpha by inactivating prolyl hydroxlases (PHD). We predict that a lack of inhibition of MnSOD, leading to persistent accumulation of HIF-1 alpha, would trigger inflammatory infiltration and endothelial damage in mutant animals. Critical tests of this hypothesis would be to recreate preeclampsia symptoms by inducing oxidative stress in WT animals or to ameliorate by treating mutant mice with Mn-SOD-catalase mimetics or activators of PHD

Challenges in monitoring and managing engineered slopes in a changing climate

Geotechnical asset owners need to know which parts of their asset network are vulnerable to climate change induced failure in order to optimise future investment. Protecting these vulnerable slopes requires monitoring systems capable of identifying and alerting to asset operators changes in the internal conditions that precede failure. Current monitoring systems are heavily reliant on point sensors which can be difficult to interpret across slope scale. This paper presents challenges to producing such a system and research being carried out to address some of these using electrical resistance tomography (ERT). Experimental results show that whilst it is possible to measure soil water content indirectly via resistivity the relationship between resistivity and water content will change over time for a given slope. If geotechnical parameters such as pore water pressure are to be estimated using this method then ERT systems will require integrating with more conventional geotechnical instrumentation to ensure correct representative information is provided. The paper also presents examples of how such data can be processed and communicated to asset owners for the purposes of asset management

On Holographic description of the Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black holes

In this paper, we study the holographic description of the generic four-dimensional non-extremal Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black holes. We find that if focusing on the near-horizon region, for the massless scalar scattering in the low-frequency limit, there exists hidden conformal symmetry on the solution space. Similar to the Kerr case, this suggests that the Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black hole is dual to a two-dimensional CFT with central charges $c_L=c_R=\frac{6a(r_++r_\ast)}{k}$ and temperatures $T_L=\frac{k(r_+^2+r_\ast^2+2a^2)}{4\pi a\Xi(r_++r_\ast)}, T_R=\frac{k(r_+-r_\ast)}{4\pi a\Xi}$. The macroscopic Bekenstein-Hawking entropy could be recovered from the microscopic counting in dual CFT via the Cardy formula. Using the Minkowski prescription, we compute the real-time correlators of the scalar, photon and graviton in near horizon geometry of near extremal Kerr-AdS-dS black hole. In all these cases, the retarded Green's function and the corresponding absorption cross section are in perfect match with CFT prediction. We further discuss the low-frequency scattering of a charged scalar by a Kerr-Newman-AdS-dS black hole and find the dual CFT description.Comment: 22 pages; minor corrections, conlusion unchanged, references added;published versio

Deterministic Parameter Change Models in Continuous and Discrete Time

We consider a model of deterministic one-time parameter change in a continuous time autoregressive model around a deterministic trend function. The exact discrete time analogue model is detailed and compared to corresponding parameter change models adopted in the discrete time literature. The relationships between the parameters in the continuous time model and the discrete time analogue model are also explored. Our results show that the discrete time models used in the literature can be justified by the corresponding continuous time model, with a only a minor modification needed for the (most likely) case where the changepoint does not coincide with one of the discrete time observation points. The implications of our results for a number of extant discrete time models and testing procedures are discussed

A structurally distinct TGF-β mimic from an intestinal helminth parasite potently induces regulatory T cells

Helminth parasites defy immune exclusion through sophisticated evasion mechanisms, including activation of host immunosuppressive regulatory T (Treg) cells. The mouse parasite Heligmosomoides polygyrus can expand the host Treg population by secreting products that activate TGF-β signalling, but the identity of the active molecule is unknown. Here we identify an H. polygyrus TGF-β mimic (Hp-TGM) that replicates the biological and functional properties of TGF-β, including binding to mammalian TGF-β receptors and inducing mouse and human Foxp3+ Treg cells. Hp-TGM has no homology with mammalian TGF-β or other members of the TGF-β family, but is a member of the complement control protein superfamily. Thus, our data indicate that through convergent evolution, the parasite has acquired a protein with cytokine-like function that is able to exploit an endogenous pathway of immunoregulation in the host

The developmental effects of media-ideal internalization and self-objectification processes on adolescents’ negative body-feelings, dietary restraint, and binge eating

Despite accumulated experimental evidence of the negative effects of exposure to media-idealized images, the degree to which body image, and eating related disturbances are caused by media portrayals of gendered beauty ideals remains controversial. On the basis of the most up-to-date meta-analysis of experimental studies indicating that media-idealized images have the most harmful and substantial impact on vulnerable individuals regardless of gender (i.e., “internalizers” and “self-objectifiers”), the current longitudinal study examined the direct and mediated links posited in objectification theory among media-ideal internalization, self-objectification, shame and anxiety surrounding the body and appearance, dietary restraint, and binge eating. Data collected from 685 adolescents aged between 14 and 15 at baseline (47 % males), who were interviewed and completed standardized measures annually over a 3-year period, were analyzed using a structural equation modeling approach. Results indicated that media-ideal internalization predicted later thinking and scrutinizing of one’s body from an external observer’s standpoint (or self-objectification), which then predicted later negative emotional experiences related to one’s body and appearance. In turn, these negative emotional experiences predicted subsequent dietary restraint and binge eating, and each of these core features of eating disorders influenced each other. Differences in the strength of these associations across gender were not observed, and all indirect effects were significant. The study provides valuable information about how the cultural values embodied by gendered beauty ideals negatively influence adolescents’ feelings, thoughts and behaviors regarding their own body, and on the complex processes involved in disordered eating. Practical implications are discussed

ERK2 Suppresses Self-Renewal Capacity of Embryonic Stem Cells, but Is Not Required for Multi-Lineage Commitment

Activation of the FGF-ERK pathway is necessary for naïve mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells to exit self-renewal and commit to early differentiated lineages. Here we show that genetic ablation of Erk2, the predominant ERK isozyme expressed in ES cells, results in hyper-phosphorylation of ERK1, but an overall decrease in total ERK activity as judged by substrate phosphorylation and immediate-early gene (IEG) induction. Normal induction of this subset of canonical ERK targets, as well as p90RSK phosphorylation, was rescued by transgenic expression of either ERK1 or ERK2 indicating a degree of functional redundancy. In contrast to previously published work, Erk2-null ES cells exhibited no detectable defect in lineage specification to any of the three germ layers when induced to differentiate in either embryoid bodies or in defined neural induction conditions. However, under self-renewing conditions Erk2-null ES cells express increased levels of the pluripotency-associated transcripts, Nanog and Tbx3, a decrease in Nanog-GFP heterogeneity, and exhibit enhanced self-renewal in colony forming assays. Transgenic add-back of ERK2 is capable of restoring normal pluripotent gene expression and self-renewal capacity. We show that ERK2 contributes to the destabilization of ES cell self-renewal by reducing expression of pluripotency genes, such as Nanog, but is not specifically required for the early stages of germ layer specification

Population-Level Benefits from Providing Effective HIV Prevention Means to Pregnant Women in High Prevalence Settings

Background:HIV prevalence among pregnant women in Southern Africa is extremely high. Epidemiological studies suggest that pregnancy increases the risk of HIV sexual acquisition and that HIV infections acquired during pregnancy carry higher risk of mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). We analyze the potential benefits from extending the availability of effective microbicide to pregnant women (in addition to non-pregnant women) in a wide-scale intervention.Methods and Findings:A transmission dynamic model was designed to assess the impact of microbicide use in high HIV prevalence settings and to estimate proportions of new HIV infections, infections acquired during pregnancy, and MTCT prevented over 10 years. Our analysis suggests that consistent use of microbicide with 70% efficacy by 60% of non-pregnant women may prevent approximately 40% and 15% of new infections in women and men respectively over 10 years, assuming no additional increase in HIV risk to either partner during pregnancy (RRHIV/preg = 1). It may also prevent 8-15% MTCT depending on the increase in MTCT risk when HIV is acquired during pregnancy compared to before pregnancy (RRMTCT/preg). Extending the microbicides use during pregnancy may improve the effectiveness of the intervention by 10% (RRHIV/preg = 1) to 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2) and reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy by 40% to 70% in different scenarios. It may add between 6% (RRHIV/preg = 1, RRMTCT/preg = 1) and 25% (RRHIV/preg = 2, RRMTCT/preg = 4) to the reduction in the residual MTCT.Conclusion:Providing safe and effective microbicide to pregnant women in the context of wide-scale interventions would be desirable as it would increase the effectiveness of the intervention and significantly reduce the number of HIV infections acquired during pregnancy. The projected benefits from covering pregnant women by the HIV prevention programs is more substantial in communities in which the sexual risk during pregnancy is elevated. © 2013 Dimitrov et al

Rare coding SNP in DZIP1 gene associated with late-onset sporadic Parkinson's disease

We present the first application of the hypothesis-rich mathematical theory to genome-wide association data. The Hamza et al. late-onset sporadic Parkinson's disease genome-wide association study dataset was analyzed. We found a rare, coding, non-synonymous SNP variant in the gene DZIP1 that confers increased susceptibility to Parkinson's disease. The association of DZIP1 with Parkinson's disease is consistent with a Parkinson's disease stem-cell ageing theory.Comment: 14 page