Topography-derived wetness indices are associated with household-level malaria risk in two communities in the western Kenyan highlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Transmission of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>generally decreases with increasing elevation, in part because lower temperature slows the development of both parasites and mosquitoes. However, other aspects of the terrain, such as the shape of the land, may affect habitat suitability for <it>Anopheles </it>breeding and thus risk of malaria transmission. Understanding these local topographic effects may permit prediction of regions at high risk of malaria within the highlands at small spatial scales.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hydrologic modelling techniques were adapted to predict the flow of water across the landscape surrounding households in two communities in the western Kenyan highlands. These surface analyses were used to generate indices describing predicted water accumulation in regions surrounding the study area. Households with and without malaria were compared for their proximity to regions of high and low predicted wetness. Predicted wetness and elevation variables were entered into bivariate and multivariate regression models to examine whether significant associations with malaria were observable at small spatial scales.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>On average, malaria case households (n = 423) were located 280 m closer to regions with very high wetness indices than non-malaria "control" households (n = 895) (t = 10.35, p < 0.0001). Distance to high wetness indices remained an independent predictor of risk after controlling for household elevation in multivariate regression (OR = 0.93 [95% confidence interval = 0.89–0.96] for a 100 m increase in distance). For every 10 m increase in household elevation, there was a 12% decrease in the odds of the house having a malaria case (OR = 0.88 [0.85–0.90]). However, after controlling for distance to regions of high predicted wetness and the community in which the house was located, this reduction in malaria risk was not statistically significant (OR = 0.98 [0.94–1.03]).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Proximity to terrain with high predicted water accumulation was significantly and consistently associated with increased household-level malaria incidence, even at small spatial scales with little variation in elevation variables. These results suggest that high wetness indices are not merely proxies for valley bottoms, and hydrologic flow models may prove valuable for predicting areas of high malaria risk in highland regions. Application in areas where malaria surveillance is limited could identify households at higher risk and help focus interventions.</p

Estimating the burden of antimicrobial resistance: a systematic literature review.

Background: Accurate estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are needed to establish the magnitude of this global threat in terms of both health and cost, and to paramaterise cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions aiming to tackle the problem. This review aimed to establish the alternative methodologies used in estimating AMR burden in order to appraise the current evidence base. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, EconLit, PubMed and grey literature were searched. English language studies evaluating the impact of AMR (from any microbe) on patient, payer/provider and economic burden published between January 2013 and December 2015 were included. Independent screening of title/abstracts followed by full texts was performed using pre-specified criteria. A study quality score (from zero to one) was derived using Newcastle-Ottawa and Philips checklists. Extracted study data were used to compare study method and resulting burden estimate, according to perspective. Monetary costs were converted into 2013 USD. Results: Out of 5187 unique retrievals, 214 studies were included. One hundred eighty-seven studies estimated patient health, 75 studies estimated payer/provider and 11 studies estimated economic burden. 64% of included studies were single centre. The majority of studies estimating patient or provider/payer burden used regression techniques. 48% of studies estimating mortality burden found a significant impact from resistance, excess healthcare system costs ranged from non-significance to $1 billion per year, whilst economic burden ranged from$21,832 per case to over $3 trillion in GDP loss. Median quality scores (interquartile range) for patient, payer/provider and economic burden studies were 0.67 (0.56-0.67), 0.56 (0.46-0.67) and 0.53 (0.44-0.60) respectively. Conclusions: This study highlights what methodological assumptions and biases can occur dependent on chosen outcome and perspective. Currently, there is considerable variability in burden estimates, which can lead in-turn to inaccurate intervention evaluations and poor policy/investment decisions. Future research should utilise the recommendations presented in this review. Trial registration: This systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (PROSPERO CRD42016037510)

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts. Methods We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen–drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level. Findings In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23–5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00–1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000–372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100–80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000–600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000–146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000–834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000–1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100–171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000–264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2–69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5–89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (–6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8–102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08–13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths. Interpretation This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050. Funding UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust

International Consensus Statement on Rhinology and Allergy: Rhinosinusitis

Background: The 5 years since the publication of the first International Consensus Statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Rhinosinusitis (ICAR‐RS) has witnessed foundational progress in our understanding and treatment of rhinologic disease. These advances are reflected within the more than 40 new topics covered within the ICAR‐RS‐2021 as well as updates to the original 140 topics. This executive summary consolidates the evidence‐based findings of the document. Methods: ICAR‐RS presents over 180 topics in the forms of evidence‐based reviews with recommendations (EBRRs), evidence‐based reviews, and literature reviews. The highest grade structured recommendations of the EBRR sections are summarized in this executive summary. Results: ICAR‐RS‐2021 covers 22 topics regarding the medical management of RS, which are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Additionally, 4 topics regarding the surgical management of RS are grade A/B and are presented in the executive summary. Finally, a comprehensive evidence‐based management algorithm is provided. Conclusion: This ICAR‐RS‐2021 executive summary provides a compilation of the evidence‐based recommendations for medical and surgical treatment of the most common forms of RS

Lower limb coordination and stiffness during landing from volleyball block jumps

Original article can be found at: http://www.informaworld.com/ Copyright Informa / Taylor and Francis Group. DOI: 10.1080/15438620802103999The aim of the study was to investigate lower limb coordination and stiffness in five male and five female university volleyball players performing block jump landings. Coordination was assessed using angle – angle plots of the hip – knee, knee – ankle and hip – ankle joint couplings and discrete relative phase (DRP) of right – left joint couplings (i.e. left knee coupled with right knee). Leg stiffness was calculated as the ratio of the change in vertical ground reaction force (GRF) to the change in vertical displacement of the centre of gravity between ground contact and maximum vertical GRF. Knee stiffness was calculated as the ratio of the change in knee joint moment to the change in knee flexion angular displacement between ground contact and maximum knee joint moment. Comparison of the DRP angles between left and right legs indicated reduced symmetry between the left and right legs in females compared to males which may indicate greater likelihood of ligament strain in females compared to males. Furthermore, females exhibited reduced stability in the coordination between the left and right knee joints than males. Males exhibited significantly greater absolute and normalised leg stiffness and significantly greater absolute and normalised knee joint stiffness during landing compared to females. In conjunction with the coordination data, this may indicate reduced dynamic stability of the leg in females compared to males which may contribute to the greater incidence of ACL injury in females compared to males.Peer reviewe

Central Neurocytoma: a Case Report

Central neurocytoma is a tumour showing neuronal differentiation. This tumour usually located in ventricles occurs at young age and carries favorable prognosis. For this, accurate diagnosis is essential. There is no published case report of central neurocytoma in Bangladesh. With these objectives, we have presented a case report of central neurocytoma in a 37 years old female. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/pulse.v6i1-2.20351 Pulse Vol.6 January-December 2013 p.51-52</jats:p