Timing of preemptive vascular access placement: do we understand the natural history of advanced CKD?: an observational study

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the targets and expectations of practicing nephrologists with regard to timing of preemptive AV access surgery and how these relate to actual observed practice patterns in clinical care. METHODS: We administered a 8-question survey to assess nephrologists’ expectations for preemptive vascular access placement to 53 practicing nephrologists in California. We performed a retrospective chart review of 116 patients who underwent preemptive vascular access placement at a large academic medical center and examined progression to ESRD. RESULTS: According to our survey of nephrologists, most aimed to have preemptive vascular access created about 6 months prior to start of ESRD or when the chances of ESRD within the next year is two-thirds or greater. The estimated GFR level at which they believe match these conditions is approximately 18 ml/min/1.73 m(2). Among the 116 patients with CKD who underwent preemptive vascular access creation, the mean estimated GFR at the time of access creation was 16.1 (6.8) ml/min/1.73 m(2). Only 57 out of the 116 patients (49.1%) patients initiated maintenance HD within 1 year after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, most nephrologists aim for preemptive vascular access surgery approximately 6 months prior to the start of HD. However in fact, only approximately 50% of patients who underwent preemptive vascular access surgery started HD within 1 year. Better tools are needed to predict the natural history of advanced CKD

Pretest estimation in combining probability and non-probability samples

Multiple heterogeneous data sources are becoming increasingly available for statistical analyses in the era of big data. As an important example in finite-population inference, we develop a unified framework of the test-and-pool approach to general parameter estimation by combining gold-standard probability and non-probability samples. We focus on the case when the study variable is observed in both datasets for estimating the target parameters, and each contains other auxiliary variables. Utilizing the probability design, we conduct a pretest procedure to determine the comparability of the non-probability data with the probability data and decide whether or not to leverage the non-probability data in a pooled analysis. When the probability and non-probability data are comparable, our approach combines both data for efficient estimation. Otherwise, we retain only the probability data for estimation. We also characterize the asymptotic distribution of the proposed test-and-pool estimator under a local alternative and provide a data-adaptive procedure to select the critical tuning parameters that target the smallest mean square error of the test-and-pool estimator. Lastly, to deal with the non-regularity of the test-and-pool estimator, we construct a robust confidence interval that has a good finite-sample coverage property.Comment: Accepted in Electronic Journal of Statistic

Causal Customer Churn Analysis with Low-rank Tensor Block Hazard Model

This study introduces an innovative method for analyzing the impact of various interventions on customer churn, using the potential outcomes framework. We present a new causal model, the tensorized latent factor block hazard model, which incorporates tensor completion methods for a principled causal analysis of customer churn. A crucial element of our approach is the formulation of a 1-bit tensor completion for the parameter tensor. This captures hidden customer characteristics and temporal elements from churn records, effectively addressing the binary nature of churn data and its time-monotonic trends. Our model also uniquely categorizes interventions by their similar impacts, enhancing the precision and practicality of implementing customer retention strategies. For computational efficiency, we apply a projected gradient descent algorithm combined with spectral clustering. We lay down the theoretical groundwork for our model, including its non-asymptotic properties. The efficacy and superiority of our model are further validated through comprehensive experiments on both simulated and real-world applications.Comment: Accepted for publication in ICML, 202

Exploring Chinese EFL teachers\u27 knowledge and beliefs relating to the teaching of English reading in public primary schools in China

© 2019 The Authors. Dyslexia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd The present study explored knowledge and beliefs about reading instruction of Chinese teachers teaching English as a foreign language (EFL). Theoretical Orientation to Reading Profile and the Survey of Basic Language Constructs Related to Literacy Acquisition were administered to 262 EFL teachers in the south-eastern part of China. Additionally, three teachers were interviewed, and their instructional practices were observed. The results showed that there was no correlation between teachers\u27 self-efficacy beliefs and the performance on the knowledge of basic language construct survey. However, it was found that teachers\u27 knowledge, beliefs, and instructional practices were mediated by the Chinese EFL contextual factors. Educational and practical implications are discussed